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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1147 times)
The Denver Poster
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« on: June 10, 2019, 09:42:24 am »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round. Some of these seats were incredibly easy pickups (there were an embarrassing number of Obama-Clinton-downballot R districts particularly in Fairfax/PWC/Loudon) but even still when you're aggressively targeting >15 seats you're spreading yourself thin. From a logistics standpoint 2019 should be much easier because they'll barely need to spend anything to defend many of these districts. There are still plenty of districts to target (two in VA Beach, one/two in Newport News, one in Fairfax) and there will be more resources available to target them.

Add to that a couple of R retirements and the fact that the lone Republican left in NOVA has turned hard right this session and gotten major flak for it and things look pretty good for Dems to flip the House.
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