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January 25, 2020, 09:48:15 am
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1118 times)
R.P. McM
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Posts: 377
Ireland, Republic of


« on: June 09, 2019, 10:32:41 pm »
« edited: June 09, 2019, 10:36:26 pm by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.
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R.P. McM
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 377
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 01:47:22 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 02:52:44 am by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.
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R.P. McM
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 377
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2019, 01:25:50 am »
« Edited: June 20, 2019, 11:17:38 pm by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round.

And the DFL gained 18 seats, and a 16-seat majority. Don't get me wrong — I think all three chambers will flip. But I don't think VA Democrats have quite as easy a task. In 2020, turnout will be high, and the election will be all about Trump, for better or worse. But 2019? I guarantee you, Republicans will attempt to drag Ralph Northam and Justin Fairfax into the spotlight. And they might succeed. Point being, assuming a uniform swing, the DFL is in better shape than the VA Dems. Assuming Northam and Fairfax factor in, there's every reason to believe a MN trifecta is equally, if not more likely than a VA trifecta.
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