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  Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where...
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Author Topic: Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where...  (Read 5517 times)
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« on: June 09, 2019, 08:21:45 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.

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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 08:29:40 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 08:33:28 pm »

Nevada.

Cortez Masto won with just Clark County.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 09:13:47 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2019, 09:29:27 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Given the current coalitions of the party, I think this is impossible.

It might be "possible" in Delaware with a Dem candidate getting a very low percentage in New Castle and just barely winning Kent, while getting completely destroyed in Sussex, but that's not a very realistic scenario.
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2019, 09:29:39 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.

The problem here is that Honolulu County is also by a significant amount also the County in Hawaii with the weakest Democratic leanings.

Also, even when Rauner won all but 1 of Illinois Counties, and won statewide in the process in 2014; there was still another County where he did worse than his statewide total.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2019, 09:32:03 pm »
« Edited: June 09, 2019, 09:35:15 pm by Tintrlvr »

I think a Democrat could win Washington with just King County nowadays. In 2016, only King, San Juan and Jefferson were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and San Juan and Jefferson are very small.

Edit: Missed Whatcom, but it was only very narrowly more Democratic than the state as a whole. San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom are all also relatively similar, so the right Republican could win all three while losing King by enough to lose statewide.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2019, 09:33:13 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.
Uh, Nevada?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2019, 09:33:43 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

If they could pull off a narrow upset win in a Hawaii election, then Republicans would probably be winning the state with just Honolulu County.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2019, 09:34:10 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.

The problem here is that Honolulu County is also by a significant amount also the County in Hawaii with the weakest Democratic leanings.

Also, even when Rauner won all but 1 of Illinois Counties, and won statewide in the process in 2014; there was still another County where he did worse than his statewide total.

HI-02 actually voted to the right of the Urban Honolulu HI-01 this cycle.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2019, 09:36:27 pm »

I think a Democrat could win Washington with just King County nowadays. In 2016, only King, San Juan and Jefferson were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and San Juan and Jefferson are very small.

Edit: Missed Whatcom, but it was only very narrowly more Democratic than the state as a whole. San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom are all also relatively similar, so the right Republican could win all three while losing King by enough to lose statewide.

If Democrats are losing Snohomish they will lose state wide as well
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2019, 09:36:50 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.



Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.

The problem here is that Honolulu County is also by a significant amount also the County in Hawaii with the weakest Democratic leanings.

Also, even when Rauner won all but 1 of Illinois Counties, and won statewide in the process in 2014; there was still another County where he did worse than his statewide total.

HI-02 actually voted to the right of the Urban Honolulu HI-01 this cycle.

Correct but HI-02 also contains a substantial rural part of Honolulu County, which is massively less Democratic than both HI-01 and the non-Honolulu Counties.
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2019, 09:38:16 pm »

Rhode Island (Providence County) is another possibility. 2016 suggests even Connecticut in the exactly right splits could go Democratic with the Democrat winning only Hartford County but would be tough I think for a Democrat to win with neither Fairfield County nor New Haven County.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2019, 09:38:53 pm »

I think a Democrat could win Washington with just King County nowadays. In 2016, only King, San Juan and Jefferson were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and San Juan and Jefferson are very small.

Edit: Missed Whatcom, but it was only very narrowly more Democratic than the state as a whole. San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom are all also relatively similar, so the right Republican could win all three while losing King by enough to lose statewide.

If Democrats are losing Snohomish they will lose state wide as well

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=53&off=5&elect=0&f=0

In addition to the above (2004 was a different era, King was much less Democratic and the Olympic peninsula much more Democratic), Snohomish was stronger for Trump and weaker for Clinton than Washington state as a whole, so obviously it is possible for a Democrat to win statewide without Snohomish.
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2019, 09:40:29 pm »

I think a Democrat could win Washington with just King County nowadays. In 2016, only King, San Juan and Jefferson were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and San Juan and Jefferson are very small.

Edit: Missed Whatcom, but it was only very narrowly more Democratic than the state as a whole. San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom are all also relatively similar, so the right Republican could win all three while losing King by enough to lose statewide.

If Democrats are losing Snohomish they will lose state wide as well

Snohomish was stronger for Trump and weaker for Clinton than Washington state as a whole.

Not true; it was weaker for both Clinton and Trump than the state as a whole, and it was more weaker for Trump than it was for Clinton.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2019, 09:42:29 pm »

I think a Democrat could win Washington with just King County nowadays. In 2016, only King, San Juan and Jefferson were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and San Juan and Jefferson are very small.

Edit: Missed Whatcom, but it was only very narrowly more Democratic than the state as a whole. San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom are all also relatively similar, so the right Republican could win all three while losing King by enough to lose statewide.

If Democrats are losing Snohomish they will lose state wide as well

Snohomish was stronger for Trump and weaker for Clinton than Washington state as a whole.

Not true; it was weaker for both Clinton and Trump than the state as a whole, and it was more weaker for Trump than it was for Clinton.

You're right, I was misreading the results (read Trump at 35.83% instead of 36.83% statewide) Still, by less than 1%.
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« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2019, 11:56:48 am »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?
Despite the example of Hawaii given for this, it's probably the most likely state for the inverse.

Might be possible in Rhode Island if you somehow had a Republican who won Kent County by a huge margin and lost everywhere else narrowly, but it's kind of hard to imagine what sort of matchup would result in a Democrat winning the rural counties and only narrowly winning Providence.
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2019, 01:48:28 am »

Also Rhode Island with just Providence County
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2019, 11:36:22 am »

Hawaii, in theory. Honolulu County is much larger than the rest. Picture a neighbor island Republican who gets support there but not on Oahu.

Bad example as Hawaii is one of the few states where the most populous county is much more Republican than the rest of the state.
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AN63093
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2019, 01:20:07 pm »

As already pointed out, I'd add NV and RI to the list, but that's probably it.

I'm not seeing WA.  First, can you even mathematically make it work with King?  Maybe it's possible by just eye-balling it, but I'm not so sure.  Second, even if you can, I'm having difficulty conceptualizing what this hypothetical candidate would look like.  You're talking about someone who would drive up a huge margin in King, but would barely lose places like Snohomish with low turnout, and also manages to somehow lose Whatcom and reverse the trend there?  What would this candidate even look like?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2019, 03:05:17 pm »
« Edited: June 11, 2019, 03:16:03 pm by Tintrlvr »

Maybe Connecticut? In 2016, Hartford and Fairfield Counties were more Democratic than the state as a whole, but Fairfield usually isn't; in 2012 it was Hartford and New Haven Counties (and New London County, very narrowly) that were more Democratic than the state as a whole. In the exact right split between 2012 and 2016, you could see a scenario where neither Fairfield nor New Haven was more Democratic than the state as a whole (but both very close to the statewide result), meaning a Democrat could theoretically win a razor-thin statewide victory with just Hartford County.

Edit: In fact, 2008 Presidential was very close to this scenario as only Hartford, New Haven and Middlesex Counties were more Democratic than the state as a whole, and New Haven and Middlesex Counties were only more Democratic by a few tenths of a percent each. Same in the 2018 Comptroller's race with Fairfield substituted for Middlesex.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #21 on: June 11, 2019, 05:00:06 pm »

Cumberland, ME?  Mike Michaud got kinda close to doing it in 2014.

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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2019, 01:54:09 am »

Sheldon Whitehouse won by 7 points in his 2006 race against Chafee and only won Providence. Also, the governor's race, which ultimately gave the Republican incumbent a narrow 2 point victory, had the democrat only winning Providence. So in a future close RI race, I could see it, though Bristol and Newport have trended democrat so they typically vote to the left of the state too now. Maybe if a Republican state senator from that area runs?
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2019, 10:28:48 am »

I'm not seeing WA.  First, can you even mathematically make it work with King?  Maybe it's possible by just eye-balling it, but I'm not so sure. 

It is mathematically possible in every state. If there are n counties, party X loses the n-1 non-largest counties  by 1 vote each, and wins the largest county by at least n votes.
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2019, 12:23:44 pm »

In 1960 JFK won Hawaii with just Oahu.
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