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  Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where...
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2019, 02:12:06 pm »

Oregon might be possible, if the swings aren't uniform towards the Republican candidate.
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Trocki-bidenista
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« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2019, 02:42:24 pm »

Arizona, hypothetically, since Maricopa has about 62% of the state's population.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2019, 03:44:07 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2019, 07:31:31 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.

So the Republican would win Anchorage and lose everything else?
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« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2019, 07:47:25 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.

So the Republican would win Anchorage and lose everything else?

Anchorage is slightly to the left of the state, and there are Counties both heavily to its right and heavily to its left.
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The Chad Pygmy Marmosets
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« Reply #30 on: June 13, 2019, 06:29:41 am »

There were more than a few occassions Democratic candidate won in DE while carrying only New Castle County. Like 2010.
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AN63093
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« Reply #31 on: June 13, 2019, 10:51:48 am »

I'm not seeing WA.  First, can you even mathematically make it work with King?  Maybe it's possible by just eye-balling it, but I'm not so sure. 

It is mathematically possible in every state. If there are n counties, party X loses the n-1 non-largest counties  by 1 vote each, and wins the largest county by at least n votes.



I understand that.  I'll rephrase- I meant a realistic scenario where the math works, ignoring trends and such.
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Xing
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« Reply #32 on: June 13, 2019, 02:47:00 pm »

DE, HI, IL, NV, and RI seem like the most likely bets. WA just isn't likely at all. A Democrat would likely need to win by something like 80-20 in King, which just isn't plausible if they're losing counties like Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and Whatcom. In closer statewide races, the Democratic candidate still won those counties, sometimes by wide margins.
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« Reply #33 on: June 13, 2019, 04:06:27 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 
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« Reply #34 on: June 13, 2019, 04:10:07 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 

This definitely isn't going to happen anytime soon, but if rural areas continued to get more Republican and urban/suburban areas continued to get more Democratic, I could see this happening maybe 30 years from now.
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« Reply #35 on: June 13, 2019, 05:29:06 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 

This definitely isn't going to happen anytime soon, but if rural areas continued to get more Republican and urban/suburban areas continued to get more Democratic, I could see this happening maybe 30 years from now.

Maricopa County will never get more Democratic than Pima County under such a scenario.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #36 on: July 14, 2019, 09:57:33 am »

As already pointed out, I'd add NV and RI to the list, but that's probably it.

I'm not seeing WA.  First, can you even mathematically make it work with King?  Maybe it's possible by just eye-balling it, but I'm not so sure.  Second, even if you can, I'm having difficulty conceptualizing what this hypothetical candidate would look like.  You're talking about someone who would drive up a huge margin in King, but would barely lose places like Snohomish with low turnout, and also manages to somehow lose Whatcom and reverse the trend there?  What would this candidate even look like?

You can't. In the 2016 SOS race, the Democrat Tina Podlodowski won about 4 counties and still lost by 10. If Snohomish goes red, King is a narrower Dem victory.
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Kizzuwanda
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« Reply #37 on: July 15, 2019, 02:09:38 pm »

That is more likely to be Rhode Island than Illinois at this point. I doubt that Lake County IL is ever going republican again.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #38 on: July 15, 2019, 05:27:45 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 

This definitely isn't going to happen anytime soon, but if rural areas continued to get more Republican and urban/suburban areas continued to get more Democratic, I could see this happening maybe 30 years from now.

Very unlikely because Pima is more Democratic than Maricopa and also quite urban. Also very hard to see the heavily Hispanic and Native American counties (especially Apache and Santa Cruz - maybe Coconino could flip, it's got a big Native population but is also driven in its D lean by a concentration of white liberals in Flagstaff and Sedona) flipping in a Democratic victory even 30 years from now.
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« Reply #39 on: July 15, 2019, 05:32:03 pm »

About Arizona, the 2012/2016 PVI of the County is actually an extremely tiny bit to the right of the state as a whole.
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« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2019, 06:36:45 pm »

vermont i think is possible, if the republican does particularly well in rural areas s.t. they win windham and the democrat holds a decent enough margin in chittenden
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Green Line
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« Reply #41 on: July 15, 2019, 09:57:58 pm »

That is more likely to be Rhode Island than Illinois at this point. I doubt that Lake County IL is ever going republican again.

Do you think a Republican will never win statewide again?  Rauner won it by 22 points in 2014 and only lost it by 8 last year (while losing by 18).  It will vote Republican in a close election, especially if the GOP candidate is from the suburbs.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #42 on: July 16, 2019, 01:24:49 am »

vermont i think is possible, if the republican does particularly well in rural areas s.t. they win windham and the democrat holds a decent enough margin in chittenden

Vermont doesn't work because the Democrat is guaranteed Windham County alongside Chittenden County. They come as a package deal, being the two most strongly Democratic counties in the state and voting by similar margins each time.
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cinyc
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« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2019, 12:18:55 am »

That is more likely to be Rhode Island than Illinois at this point. I doubt that Lake County IL is ever going republican again.

Do you think a Republican will never win statewide again?  Rauner won it by 22 points in 2014 and only lost it by 8 last year (while losing by 18).  It will vote Republican in a close election, especially if the GOP candidate is from the suburbs.

Never is a very long time.
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Green Line
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« Reply #44 on: July 17, 2019, 12:22:38 am »

That is more likely to be Rhode Island than Illinois at this point. I doubt that Lake County IL is ever going republican again.

Do you think a Republican will never win statewide again?  Rauner won it by 22 points in 2014 and only lost it by 8 last year (while losing by 18).  It will vote Republican in a close election, especially if the GOP candidate is from the suburbs.

Never is a very long time.

Yes, which was my point.
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WWC Populists for Bloomberg
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« Reply #45 on: July 20, 2019, 08:19:01 pm »

vermont i think is possible, if the republican does particularly well in rural areas s.t. they win windham and the democrat holds a decent enough margin in chittenden
I don't think so. In the 2018 gov race, Scott won Chittenden by 3 while losing Windham by 15.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #46 on: August 17, 2019, 11:27:00 pm »

A Democrat plausibly could win statewide while only carrying a single County?


I can't think of any other states where this is possible.


Neveda
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