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June 16, 2019, 12:39:10 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Are Illinois and Delaware the only states where...
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Representative Carpetbagger
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« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2019, 12:23:44 pm »

In 1960 JFK won Hawaii with just Oahu.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2019, 02:12:06 pm »

Oregon might be possible, if the swings aren't uniform towards the Republican candidate.
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Comstock Save Us
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2019, 02:42:24 pm »

Arizona, hypothetically, since Maricopa has about 62% of the state's population.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2019, 03:44:07 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.
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🚫 Resist the Urge to Kiss a Dead Girl 🚫
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« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2019, 07:31:31 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.

So the Republican would win Anchorage and lose everything else?
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2019, 07:47:25 pm »

What about the inverse, is there any state where a Republican could win while winning just one county, or where this might be possible one day?

Maybe Alaska, at least hypothetically.

So the Republican would win Anchorage and lose everything else?

Anchorage is slightly to the left of the state, and there are Counties both heavily to its right and heavily to its left.
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Both Sides™
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« Reply #31 on: June 13, 2019, 06:29:41 am »

There were more than a few occassions Democratic candidate won in DE while carrying only New Castle County. Like 2010.
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AN63093
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« Reply #32 on: June 13, 2019, 10:51:48 am »

I'm not seeing WA.  First, can you even mathematically make it work with King?  Maybe it's possible by just eye-balling it, but I'm not so sure. 

It is mathematically possible in every state. If there are n counties, party X loses the n-1 non-largest counties  by 1 vote each, and wins the largest county by at least n votes.



I understand that.  I'll rephrase- I meant a realistic scenario where the math works, ignoring trends and such.
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Xing
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« Reply #33 on: June 13, 2019, 02:47:00 pm »

DE, HI, IL, NV, and RI seem like the most likely bets. WA just isn't likely at all. A Democrat would likely need to win by something like 80-20 in King, which just isn't plausible if they're losing counties like Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and Whatcom. In closer statewide races, the Democratic candidate still won those counties, sometimes by wide margins.
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Storr
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« Reply #34 on: June 13, 2019, 04:06:27 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 
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« Reply #35 on: June 13, 2019, 04:10:07 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 

This definitely isn't going to happen anytime soon, but if rural areas continued to get more Republican and urban/suburban areas continued to get more Democratic, I could see this happening maybe 30 years from now.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #36 on: June 13, 2019, 05:29:06 pm »

It is mathematically possible in Arizona for a Democrat to win only carrying Maricopa County (since it has more than half of the state's population). But, currently it's the 'swing county' of the state being close to 50/50 Democrat/Republican. 

This definitely isn't going to happen anytime soon, but if rural areas continued to get more Republican and urban/suburban areas continued to get more Democratic, I could see this happening maybe 30 years from now.

Maricopa County will never get more Democratic than Pima County under such a scenario.
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