If control of the Senate hinges on a runoff in GA...

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Perdue wins unless Trump loses that state and even then Perdue may still win

[MT Treasurer]

Perdue wins unless Trump loses that state and even then Perdue may still win

If this race goes to a runoff, it probably means that the state was decided by 1-2% or less in the presidential election, so I could definitely see a Democrat narrowly beating Perdue in the runoff if anti-Trump turnout skyrockets, especially after a Trump win in November.

Either way, I think we can all agree that turnout would be very high for a runoff in either scenario.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only if Trump loses and Joe is locking in 300 electors, winning OH, then, Teresa Tomlinson wins the run off in GA, not Espy.

[Xing]

Perdue wins if Trump loses, he probably loses if Trump wins, unless Trump won Georgia by a comfortable margin, and the ED results in the Senate race were something like 49-44 Perdue.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I would have to see the results on Election Night. Whether Trump wins or loses the Senate Majority being on the line makes it a pure toss-up. That was not the case in 2008 with middle of the road Jim Martin and GA's Dem electorate has drastically changed. Would be pretty f-ing exciting to be apart of. Though I'd obviously rather win outright on Election Night.

[politicallefty]

Whichever party loses the presidential election wins the GA runoff.  A scenario where Trump has been reelected but the senate is 50D/49R pending the GA runoff is pretty absurd, so I would have to say Republicans because Trump having narrowly lost with a 49D/50R senate going into the runoff is far more plausible (Dems gain CO/AZ/ME, GOP gains AL).  Only way the Dem wins is some scenario where Trump lost GA by like 7 and the state is just gone for Republicans.

I was about to post basically the same, since that was my line of thinking as well. If Trump wins reelection, there's no way Democrats are getting to 50 in the Senate, let alone 51 with Georgia. I'd say  under that scenario, the best Democrats could hope for is 48-49 seats.

I'd have a hard time seeing Democrats winning a runoff in Georgia if they win the White House, but a lot would depend on who the Democratic candidate was and the vote totals from November. I suppose if morale was high enough on the Democratic side and low enough on the Republican side from the election, then maybe.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans aren’t guaranteed to hold states like NC or MT even if Trump wins reelection (at least CO + NC + AZ is easily doable even if Trump wins), and knowing Republicans, I’m sure they’ll find a way to blow one "safe" race in red territory (maybe AL with Moore, maybe KS, maybe AK, who knows).

I know it’s a controversial opinion, but I also think that MI-SEN will be fairly competitive if Trump wins reelection and James is the nominee.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Republicans aren’t guaranteed to hold states like NC or MT even if Trump wins reelection (at least CO + NC + AZ is easily doable even if Trump wins), and knowing Republicans, I’m sure they’ll find a way to blow one "safe" race in red territory (maybe AL with Moore, maybe KS, maybe AK, who knows).

I know it’s a controversial opinion, but I also think that MI-SEN will be fairly competitive if Trump wins reelection and James is the nominee.

LOL if Trump is winning NC, tillis will win too. Tillis would have to do something really dumb to lose if trump wins NC

[MT Treasurer]

LOL if Trump is winning NC, tillis will win too. Tillis would have to do something really dumb to lose if trump wins NC

Yeah, I mean it’s not like Tillis’s approval is in the gutter, the guy is seen as a slimy establishment Washington insider with very underwhelming support from the GOP base, and NC is trending Democratic and will almost certainly decided by 3% and probably less than that in 2020. No, split-ticket voting is 100% dead just because every state voted for the same party for Senate and president in 2016.

[skbl17]

(Reminder that here in Georgia, federal runoffs are in January, not December.)

Back in 2010 or 2014, I would have said GOP without a doubt. 2020? The state's close enough now in terms of voting patterns and demographics that I'd need to see the election night results to get to a decent answer.

The only thing I'm decently confident in is that the runoff result would be extremely close (51/49 or narrower,) regardless of who wins.

[Politician]

Perdue 54-46 if Trump loses, 51-49 if he wins.

[Del Tachi]

Perdue wins

[President Johnson]

Don't count Beautiful flawless Queen Teresa out.

This scenario would most likely mean that Trump has lost and Democrats stand at 49 senate seats. Georgia would be the 50th, giving control to Democrats through their newly elected vice president. If Trump wins reelection, the senate will most likely stay at 53-47 with Alabama and Colorado cancelling each other out.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Perdue wins unless Trump loses that state and even then Perdue may still win

If this race goes to a runoff, it probably means that the state was decided by 1-2% or less in the presidential election, so I could definitely see a Democrat narrowly beating Perdue in the runoff if anti-Trump turnout skyrockets, especially after a Trump win in November.

Either way, I think we can all agree that turnout would be very high for a runoff in either scenario.

If Trump wins reelection, the Democrats won't be within a seat of controlling the senate.

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump wins reelection, the Democrats won't be within a seat of controlling the senate.

It’s entirely possible for Republicans to lose AZ, NC, CO, and MT (or maybe one other red state seat, but MT is probably the most likely) while winning AL even if Trump wins reelection. Granted, if James wins in MI, then yeah, Democrats won’t be within a seat of winning the Senate.

[Ilhan Apologist]

If Trump wins reelection, the Democrats won't be within a seat of controlling the senate.

It’s entirely possible for Republicans to lose AZ, NC, CO, and MT (or maybe one other red state seat, but MT is probably the most likely) while winning AL even if Trump wins reelection. Granted, if James wins in MI, then yeah, Democrats won’t be within a seat of winning the Senate.

I really don't see NC-Sen or MT-Sen flipping if Trump wins reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget MT, Bullock isnt running

[MT Treasurer]

I really don't see NC-Sen or MT-Sen flipping if Trump wins reelection.

That’s what I thought, and it seems to be the general consensus here, but I respectfully disagree. MT will definitely require a strong effort (Bullock jumping into the race would help), but in NC in particular I could easily see a Democratic pick-up even if Trump wins reelection. Tillis is unpopular (both with the R base and the GE electorate, much like Roy Blunt was in 2016) but really can’t afford to underperform Trump by more than 1-3% given how close the state will be in the presidential race.

I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to hold every red state Senate seat just because it’s a presidential year and Trump will likely carry their states.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Trump wins reelection, Dems are lucky to make a net gain of 1 seat. -AL, +CO, +either AZ-special or ME (Collins has not announced if she runs). TX, NC and GA aren't flipping if he wins.