MI-SEN 2020: If Gary Peters vs. John James

[Epaminondas]

I mean on one hand midterms don't really correlate that well Snyder won by 20 and then Romney lost by 10.

That's... nonsense?
In 2010 Snyder won 1,9M votes, the most a House Republican has ever won before or since.
(Conversely, the Dem has garnered 2.1M twice, in 2006 and 2018.)

This correlates perfectly with Bush getting 2M then 2.3M, McCain getting 2M, Romney 2.2M and Trump 2.3M

The pattern is clear: Democratic enthusiasm is the only real issue in Michigan, as the GOP has a hard ceiling of about 2.4M votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent losing MI this time around. Trump needed Gary Johnson votes to win MI, Pa and WI. After 2018, debacle, in NM sen, Johnson will be remembered as Ralph Nadar helping Trump in 2016

[charlottegaze]

I still say Peters still has the edge. But it's the very same precarious edge that the Democratic nominee for president has against Trump. What I'm more confident about is that whichever way it goes, it'll vote the same for presidency and Senate. I don't really buy the "magic touch" thing going on with James, especially not in his second consecutive run for Senate. If he crosses the finish line, it'll be largely because of Trump.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean on one hand midterms don't really correlate that well Snyder won by 20 and then Romney lost by 10. James appears to be too extreme for Michigan but Santorum and Gardner were also "too conservative" and they did great. Then again, they both were elected during R years. On the other hand, Angle, Buck and for that matter Abrams and Gillum all barely lost in swing states when they ran too far from the center in a state that though wasn't hostile to their ideas, was very skeptical.

I would give James about the same chance to become Senator as McCarthy does to become Speaker. If Trump is guaranteed to get to at least 240 or 250 EVs and Biden or Sanders is having trouble coming up with #200, let alone #270, they have a 50/50 shot. If Trump appears to have enough no matter what, they both probably win.

Santorum won a single term as a vaguely pro-labor Republican against a weak pro-life Democrat in 2000 before getting absolutely destroyed by Casey in 2006.