Stuart Rothenberg’s Senate analysis: Eight key races

[MT Treasurer]

But the nation’s polarization and intense partisan divide, combined with the fundamentals of the 34 states that will have a Senate race next year, suggest that only a few states — and a few voters — will decide which party runs the chamber in 2021. [...]

That leaves eight Senate races for 2020 worth mentioning — two in states won by Clinton (Colorado and Maine) and six in states that backed Trump (Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Texas). [...]

In 2014, I repeatedly noted what a strong candidate Cory Gardner was and what a perfect race he ran, but 2020 is likely to produce a very different political environment in Colorado.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/eight-senate-races-likely-to-determine-control-of-the-chamber

Clearly MI-SEN is less competitive than CO-SEN and AL-SEN. Then again, with strong™ and underrated™ incumbents™ like Gary Peters and Cory Gardner running again, that should be obvious.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

That list puts Democrats and Republicans at 46 seats each, with a case where if Democrats win at least half of the seats in play, they take the Senate (face it, if its a tied Senate, Democrats have already taken the presidency).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Best case scenario for Dems:

AL: Maddux
AZ: M.Kelly
CO: Dem nominee
GA: run-off
IA: T.Greenfield
ME: S.Collins inc
MI: G.Peters inc
NH: J.Shaheen inc
NM: Democratic inc seat
NC: Democratic nominee

[LoneStarDem]

On ME: Is 2020 the last campaign for Collins ? I believe whenever she retires, the Dems will get her US Senate seat in 2026 or 2032.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Best case scenario for Dems:

AL: Maddux
AZ: M.Kelly
CO: Dem nominee
GA: run-off
IA: T.Greenfield
ME: S.Collins inc
MI: G.Peters inc
NH: J.Shaheen inc
NM: Democratic inc seat
NC: Democratic nominee

Hmm I feel like in the Dem best case scenario, Collins would win and Doug Jones would narrowly beat Roy Moore or another extremist.

[lfromnj]

Alabama isn't a key race. When will the pundits understand this. Kansas is more likely to go D than Alabama and it isn't likely to go D at all.

[Gass3268]

Alabama isn't a key race. When will the pundits understand this. Kansas is more likely to go D than Alabama.

If a state is going to flip, even if you know a year and a half out, it's still a key race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-AL and TX with Hegar wont flip

AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME and NC are key in Senate control