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  TX 23: Can Hurd hold on one more time?
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Author Topic: TX 23: Can Hurd hold on one more time?  (Read 692 times)
Canis
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« on: June 12, 2019, 03:17:50 pm »

Tx 23 is trending blue beto won it by 5 hurd barely held on by around a thousand votes does hurd have a chance to survive with presidential turnout?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2019, 03:27:25 pm »

Trump only just lost this district and it wonít be a D+9 midterm. Hurd should be fine in 2020 but itíll be competitive. He will be moved to a much safer district probably regardless of outcome and much of this seat will become a fourth D sink along the Mexico border after redistricting.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2019, 04:02:01 pm »

If it's a good year for Republicans, he faces a bad opponent, or the DCCC pulls out of the race prematurely again, then yes. Under normal circumstances, though, he'll be at least a slight underdog. He's not a bad candidate, but it's hard to argue that he hasn't been very lucky.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2019, 04:22:09 pm »

Has Ortiz Jones announced she's seeking a rematch ?
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gracile
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2019, 04:26:08 pm »

Has Ortiz Jones announced she's seeking a rematch ?

Yes, and she probably won't get left to the wayside by the DCCC this time around.
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SvenTC
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2019, 07:43:46 pm »

I think Hispanic turnout sinks him this time around, seeing as the DCCC isn't likely to be stupid enough to triage this district again after how close we came last year.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2019, 08:34:42 pm »

Has Ortiz Jones announced she's seeking a rematch ?

Yes, and she probably won't get left to the wayside by the DCCC this time around.

In other words, she will not get the nomination ?
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2019, 08:48:09 pm »

This district is highly competitive - its Cook PVI is currently R+1, and 538 estimates that Republicans have a 3-in-5 chance of winning while Democrats have a 2-in-5 chance of winning.

Hurd is far from a safe bet here - I think that if you ran simulations of elections in this district with current generic congressional ballot polling data, a majority of such simulations will probably have Hurd losing to a Democratic challenger.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2019, 04:00:00 am »

Yes, he can. Hispanic turnout being higher will make it more challenging this time around, but squeaking by again is not out of question. But after 2020 redistricting, his district is likely to get more Democratic (more of El Paso County) unless they stretch it into the Midland/Odessa area instead of going down to Del Rio and outer San Antonio.
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2019, 06:51:18 am »

In presidential turnout Clinton Districts will grow more Democratic and Trump districts will trend more Republican even if he loses, this will have a major effect on House races.
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beesley
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2019, 12:10:40 pm »

Can he? Yes, that's quite possible and if he's been able to hold on in the way he has, the idea of him pulling something out the bag is quite conceivable.

Will he? Perhaps not. The district's far from safe, and the circumstances may get the better of him.
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2019, 12:27:55 pm »

Yes, he can. Hispanic turnout being higher will make it more challenging this time around, but squeaking by again is not out of question. But after 2020 redistricting, his district is likely to get more Democratic (more of El Paso County) unless they stretch it into the Midland/Odessa area instead of going down to Del Rio and outer San Antonio.


Depends on the VRA anyway. If it is gutted to significant amounts like Dems claim I think the GOP might just go for the double sink Austin(white liberals are the worst thing for the Texas GOP they will turnout and they will vote D in absurd amounts) and gut other districts like this by making it go into more rural areas.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2019, 12:30:03 pm »

Yes, he can. Hispanic turnout being higher will make it more challenging this time around, but squeaking by again is not out of question. But after 2020 redistricting, his district is likely to get more Democratic (more of El Paso County) unless they stretch it into the Midland/Odessa area instead of going down to Del Rio and outer San Antonio.


Depends on the VRA anyway. If it is gutted to significant amounts like Dems claim I think the GOP might just go for the double sink Austin(white liberals are the worst thing for the Texas GOP they will turnout and they will vote D in absurd amounts) and gut other districts like this by making it go into more rural areas.

Gutting the Voting Rights Act of 1965 is DISGUSTING.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2019, 01:16:59 pm »

Yeah he can, of course it will be very close once again
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charlottegaze
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2019, 03:42:21 pm »

Not betting on it. Hurd survived last time because the Dem political committees overestimated him (as counter-intuitive as that sounds) and I doubt they'll make that mistake again. He has a chance, but not a big one.
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Ishan
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2019, 02:03:20 pm »

Do you think Liz Wahl will win the primary?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2019, 03:27:11 pm »

Can he? Of course, he's won three times before. Will he? Depends on how much Hispanic turnout goes up relative to 2018.
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