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June 16, 2019, 12:13:56 am
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  What is the most crucial of the 4 early states to win for each candidate?
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Author Topic: What is the most crucial of the 4 early states to win for each candidate?  (Read 376 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: June 12, 2019, 07:34:14 pm »

What state is most crucial for each candidate to win to have a chance going into Super Tuesday?

I think for Biden it's definitely Iowa, Sanders is NH, Warren is IA and NH, Harris is SC, Booker is SC, etc
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2019, 09:09:11 pm »

It's Iowa for everyone, because the nominee has won it every time but 1992.

After that, it's SC for most of the moderates and Harris. For the Northeasterners, it's NH. For Beto, it's probably Nevada.
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🚫 Resist the Urge to Kiss a Dead Girl 🚫
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2019, 09:42:12 pm »

Sanders and Biden: Iowa

Harris: South Carolina

Warren and O'Rourke: Nevada

Buttigieg: New Hampshire
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2019, 10:31:39 pm »

For Yang it's definitely New Hampshire, since he went to university there and is from the neighbour state, but he needs to do pretty well in Iowa and Nevada too. I think Yang might need to be top three in New Hampshire perhaps, at the very least top five.
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2019, 11:04:20 pm »

It's Iowa for every candidate except Biden and Harris, for whom it's South Carolina.
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2019, 12:03:41 am »

It's Iowa for every candidate except Biden and Harris, for whom it's South Carolina.

Nah, a lot of faith is gonna down if Biden loses there, and I highly doubt he can just cry his way back and claim to be likable enough to steal back New Hampshire if called out. He needs Iowa to prove that he lives the hype.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2019, 12:23:03 am »

Iowa for all of them.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2019, 12:31:39 am »

If they had to win one of the two first and then one of the next:
Biden- IA, SC
Warren- IA, NV
Harris- Iowa, SC
Sanders- NH, NV
Buttigieg- IA, NV
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2019, 02:35:30 am »

Why isn't CA included within the list?

Meaning more votes will be already cast in CA with butt-load more delegates than the "Fab Four", even before we see the numbers from Super Tuesday.

Could attempt to forecast based upon the OP question, but IA, NH, NV, and SC are minor blips in History compared the the Largest State in the Union.

Problem is that Media Narrative will dump well before the West Coast will have a voice, but something tells me that horse-swapping will become the '20 DEM norm.
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tack50
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2019, 05:52:01 am »

My guess for all the candidates (including the ones polling at 1% or less)

Bennet: Nevada
Biden: Iowa
Booker: South Carolina
Bullock: Iowa
Buttigieg: Iowa
Castro: Nevada
de Blasio: New Hampshire
Delaney: South Carolina
Gabbard: New Hampshire
Gillibrand: New Hampshire
Gravel: Iowa
Harris: Nevada
Hickenlooper: Nevada
Inslee: New Hampshire
Klobuchar: Iowa
Messam: South Carolina
O'Rourke: Nevada
Ryan: Iowa
Sanders: New Hampshire
Swalwell: Nevada
Warren: New Hampshire
Williamson: Nevada
Yang: Iowa
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2019, 06:51:26 am »

Iowa for all of them.

Iowa for all the big ones (top 5-6) is more correct to say. Iowa is certainly not make or break for someone like Marianne Williamson. She just needs to do better that expected, preferably a lot better.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2019, 07:13:40 am »

The two big ones for Biden are Iowa and South Carolina. If he wins Iowa the nomination is basically his. If he loses South Carolina he's in serious trouble.

Bernie and Warren probably have to win both Iowa and New Hampshire to get the nomination. Buttigieg needs Iowa to give him momentum. Harris and Booker need South Carolina to kickstart their campaigns. Beto....probably a combination of Iowa and Nevada?

The rest are Iowa by default. Maybe New Hampshire for Gillibrand?
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AN63093
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2019, 08:29:34 am »

It's Iowa for every candidate except Biden and Harris, for whom it's South Carolina.

This.

If Biden hasn't collapsed before the holidays, he's the only one that can survive not winning IA (and even then, if he gets humiliated there.. like 4th place or something, he's gonna be in big trouble).

Everyone else is out if they don't win IA.  Maybe Sanders or Warren could survive with a big win in NH.  But they can't finish any worse than 2nd in IA.

On the other hand, if Biden has collapsed before IA, then this becomes a wide open race.  There are probably anywhere between 3-4 candidates that would be in contention for Super Tuesday, as long as they win one state somewhere.  Harris would target SC, Warren and Sanders would probably need one of IA/NH, or even NV... Buttigieg would try for IA, etc.
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Dangerous Communist Andrew Yang
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2019, 11:14:31 am »

Iowa for all of them.
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2019, 07:06:34 pm »

Bennet: Iowa
Biden: South Carolina
Booker: South Carolina
Bullock: Iowa
Buttigeg: Iowa
Castro: Nevada
de Blasio: Iowa?
Delaney: Iowa
Gabbard: New Hampshire?
Gillibrand: New Hampshire?
Gravel: ?
Harris: South Carolina
Hickenlooper: Iowa
Inslee: ?
Klobuchar: Iowa
Messam: ?
Moulton: New Hampshire
O'Rourke: Iowa
Ryan: Iowa
Sanders: New Hampshire
Swalwell: Iowa
Warren: Nevada
Williamson: ?
Yang: ?
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2019, 07:22:50 pm »

*=Candidate only needs to obtain top three to keep going
Bennet: IA*
Biden: IA, SC
Booker: SC
Bullock: IA*
Buttigieg: IA, NH
Castro: NV*
de Blasio: NH*
Delaney: IA*
Gabbard: Win Delegates to Change Party Platform
Gillibrand: IA*, NH
Gravel: Get into Debates
Harris: IA*, SC, NV*
Hickenlooper: IA*
Inslee: NV*, IA*, NH*
Klobuchar: IA*
Messam: SC*
Moulton: NH*
O'Rourke: IA*, NV
Ryan: IA
Sanders: NH
Swalwell: IA*
Warren: NV, NH
Williamson: IA*
Yang: Get UBI talked about
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MAGugh
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2019, 10:29:29 pm »

Bennet: Iowa
Biden: South Carolina
Booker: South Carolina
Bullock: Iowa
Buttigieg: Iowa
Castro: Nevada
de Blasio: Iowa
Delaney: Iowa
Gabbard: New Hampshire
Gillibrand: New Hampshire
Gravel: New Hampshire
Harris: South Carolina
Hickenlooper: Iowa
Inslee: New Hampshire
Klobuchar: Iowa
Messam: Getting even one supporter in Iowa
Moulton: Iowa
O'Rourke: Iowa
Ryan: Iowa
Sanders: New Hampshire
Swalwell: Iowa
Warren: Iowa
Williamson: Iowa
Yang: Iowa
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