2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[ctherainbow]

State House Update Districts 101-203:

District 114:

This district was already on the low end of Likely D, as Kosierowski likely overperformed against her special election opponent after he was found to have made Islamophobic Facebook posts, but the state GOP has revealed that they'll be targeting her seat with ad campaigns, and I know they'd like to make inroads against the relatively strong Lackawanna County Democratic machine.  I'm gonna nudge this rating over the edge into Lean D territory, but I still expect Kosierowski to hold this seat without that brutal of a fight.

Likely D --> Lean D

District 119:

Another NEPA seat held by Dems, this one is trending away from the incumbent, and has also been placed on the state GOP hit list.  This one looks a lot more vulnerable, and Trump support in Luzerne County is at scary levels, so a general election featuring Trump will likely drive turnout in this district against Mullery, this district's incumbent.

Tilt D --> Tossup

[ctherainbow]

State House Update District 104:

While at Harrisburg Pride over the weekend, I got to meet Jesse Gantt, the vice-president of a local school board who is running against Sue Helm in the 104th House District.  A realtor and self-proclaimed "huge NASA nerd", he doesn't seem like the strongest possible candidate for the seat, which Helm has held since 2006.  Helm, who usually wins about a 10 point margin in her re-election campaigns, still looks the clear favorite to retain her seat this cycle.

Lean R --> Lean R

[ctherainbow]

State Senate District 17 Update:

Union organizer and activist Linda Fields, who drew significant visibility last cycle for her 5-point loss to Republican incumbent Bob Mensch in State Senate District 24, has decided to carpetbag to District 17 and primary Daylin Leach, bringing his number of primary challengers so far to three.  I'm not sure the Dem leadership of the 17th District will throw their support behind a carpetbagger, but honestly who knows.  This primary is shaping up to be a mess.

https://wskg.org/news/fellow-dems-challenging-leach-promise-similar-policies-but-a-change-in-culture/

Likely D --> Likely D

[ctherainbow]

Updates:


State Senate District 15:

Republican incumbent John DiSanto, who has pushed for school property tax elimination, is reportedly delinquent to the tune of over $14,000 in property taxes on acreage that he owns with his brother.  While he claims that the bill was simply "overlooked", it's not a good look, and will provide his eventual Democratic challenger with another puddle of mud to sling from.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html

This news in and of itself didn't provide enough impetus for me to move the race, but there's a highly competitive US Congressional race between current Rep Scott Perry and Auditor General Eugene DePasquale shaping up in the US Congressional District that covers the Dauphin County portion of District 15.  Increased turnout from another aggressive campaign in the more heavily Democratic portion of the district should benefit DiSanto's challenger, if even a little, so out of an abundance of caution, I'm shifting this race to Tossup.

Tilt R --> Tossup


State House District 44:

2018 candidate and eventual loser Michele Knoll has announced that she'll challenge current incumbent Valerie Gaydos again in 2020.  Doesn't change much yet for me in terms of prediction; Knoll doesn't come off as a played-out retread candidate, and her name recognition in the district could help, but Gaydos will also have two years to entrench herself.

https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/

Tilt R --> Tilt R

[ctherainbow]

State House Update:

District 85:

The special election went pretty much as expected; the Dem challenger closed the margins a little bit in the special election last month, but nowhere near enough to even be close to competitive.  Republican Daniel Rowe held this seat for the state GOP, and I don't expect it to be competitive in 2020, either.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_85

Strong R --> Strong R

[Grumpier Than Thou]

State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession

[Lisa's voting Biden]

State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession

Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).

[Grumpier Than Thou]

State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession

Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).

Well yeah, unfortunately.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession

When I was browsing Reddit and saw the article title, but without the party ID, I was 99% sure it was a Republican.

B--b-b--ut PizzaGate!

[ctherainbow]

Sorry the updates have fallen off, you guys.  Have had a ton of personal stuff to attend to.
Anyway, here are some State Senate updates:


State Senate District 9:

Endangered Republican Thomas Killion has gotten another challenger in what should be one of PA Election Night 2020's top races to watch.  Local labor organizer and plumber John Kane has announced his intent to seek the Democratic nomination, and this race, as PA Dems' best pickup opportunity in the State Senate, should continue to attract more challengers to Killion as we get closer to 2020.

https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html

Tilt D --> Tilt D


State Senate District 48:

In a seat that wasn't scheduled to be in play until 2022, the resignation of former State Senator Mike Folmer over child porn charges has thrown this seat into contention, with both parties scrambling to field candidates for the January 14th special election.  This badly gerrymandered district encompasses Lebanon County, as well as portions of Dauphin and York Counties, and is a very Republican district, voting nearly two-thirds Republican in 2018.  Barring a miracle, this district should stay Republican.  So far there are three announced Republican candidates for the district, including Lebanon County District Attorney Dave Arnold, State House Representative Russ Diamond, and think-tank CEO Matthew Brouillette.  If Diamond were to win this Senate seat and his House seat were vacated, it would also likely remain Republican, as it is a very conservative district.

http://pressandjournal.com/stories/third-republican-declares-candidacy-for-folmers-state-senate-seat,66762

Strong R

[Flyersfan232]

Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection

D favor gerrymandering

[lfromnj]

Btw whatd the odds that Cambria county democrat in like a +30 trump seat wins?. 1%?

[ctherainbow]

Btw whatd the odds that Cambria county democrat in like a +30 trump seat wins?. 1%?

Mayyyyyyybe 5% at the high end?  Central Pennsylvania politics is a weak spot for me in terms of state knowledge, but this seat is unlikely to flip unless there's a perfect storm in favor of Dems, with better margins than 2018 and an inexplicable rebound of Dem support in aging industrial towns(this is the type of area where you might think ticket-splitting Republican presidential voters are likely to still exist, but recent elections haven't borne that out too much).  Are you referring to the senate seat that contains Cambria, or the house seats that cover it?  I can do some deeper dives than I have and come up with some stats if you'd like.   

[ctherainbow]

State House Update:

District 18:

As I had been predicting, current Republican incumbent Gene DiGirolamo has won a seat on the Bucks County Commission, opening up his state house seat in the competitive Bensalem Township.  The seat would likely have been Lean R with DiGirolamo, but as an open seat this race looks like a Tilt D or Tossup.  Today's Bensalem Township vote margins point towards a Tossup race, but the last presidential cycle gave Clinton a nearly 9 point win, so I'm updating this race to Tilt D.

http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/

Tilt R --> Tilt D

[ctherainbow]

State Senate Update:

District 14:

Not a 2020 seat, but Democrat John Yudichak of the 14th Senate District has changed his registration to Independent and plans to start attending GOP caucus meetings.  Yudichak's main complaint seems to be "party purity tests", while the PA Democratic leadership maintains that the state party is open to all types of Democrats.  This defection deals a serious blow to Democrats' hopes of flipping the State Senate in 2020, and leaves John Blake of the 22nd district as the only Democrat to represent any portion of Northeastern PA.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/11/pa-dems-lose-a-state-senator-john-yudichak-of-luzerne-county-declares-himself-independent-will-caucus-with-gop.html

Democratic --> Independent


State Senate Overall Rating:

With the defection of Yudichak, Democrats would have to flip the relatively red 13th district, which is Lancaster County, a trending Dem area, but one that's not trending fast enough to make recent races close.  The seat could flip in theory, but it's not at all likely, and thus Democrats are unlikely to flip the State Senate in 2020.

Estimated Chance of Control:

45%D/55%R --> 10%D/90%R

[wbrocks67]

It'd be nice if we could get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House but alas...

[Mr.Phips]

You’d think that with a divided government, both sides would agree to a non-partisan redistricting commission in PA.  Is there anything like this working it’s way toward passage?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Wolf and the legislature can't agree on a map, wouldn't that mean the PASC gets to draw it?

[Mr.Phips]

If Wolf and the legislature can't agree on a map, wouldn't that mean the PASC gets to draw it?

Yep.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.

[Badger]

Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.

But when?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.

But when?

For the 2022 cycle, as always happens with a decennial redistricting.

[Orser67]

There's an article in the Philadelphia Inquirer today about the PA state legislative races. As anyone following these races might expect, it mentions that the party-switcher in the state senate will make picking up that chamber significantly more difficult for Democrats, and that leading Democrats now seem to be more focused on picking up the state house of representatives.

[lfromnj]

Trump +31 state house D rep retiring
SAFE R
somehow it was obama plus 5 in 2012. These swings are insane.

[ctherainbow]

State House Updates, Retirement Edition:

District 66:

Republican incumbent Cris Dush is retiring at the end of his term in this blood-red Western PA district, but that shouldn't put the district in any danger of flipping.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/

Strong R --> Strong R


District 123:

Democratic incumbent Neal Goodman is retiring at the end of his term in this heavily red Schuylkill County coal country district.  The GOP hadn't challenged him in years, which is what my initial prediction was predicated on, but unless the GOP again has a massive recruiting failure, Goodman's retirement almost certainly means that this district flips.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/

Likely D --> Likely R


District 154:

Democratic incumbent Steve McCarter is retiring at the end of his term, which should open the door for another Democrat to succeed him, as this district is very blue.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/

Strong D --> Strong D


District 160:

Republican incumbent Steve Barrar is the second Steve to announce his retirement at the end of this term, and his Chester/Delaware County district is a serious 2020 battleground.  He won the district in 2018 by about 2.5 points, but Governor Wolf won the district with nearly 60 percent of the vote, and Clinton also carried the district by 2 points in 2016.  It remains to be seen what kind of candidates both parties will field in this district in 2020, but given the GOP extirpation occurring in suburban SEPA, I'm gonna start an open race in this district at Tossup, with the possibility of quickly moving to Tilt D depending on candidate selection.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/

Tilt R --> Tossup