What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?

[SN2903]

I would go 40-50%. I think Trump has about a 60-70% chance of reelection. 2024 will be really interesting regardless of what happens in 2020.

[TML]

1-in-6.

[groundbreakingdaddy]

my guess:

dems run biden
trump wins 2020
*approval rating stagnates in low/mid 40s*

dems run a leftist/true progressive

?? what happens now

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Are you asking what the odds of the Republican candidate winning both elections are, or each election individually?

If you mean individually, then I'll say Trump has a 55% chance of winning in 2020 and the Democrat has an 80% chance of winning in 2024.

If you meant what are the odds that a Republican wins in both 2020 and 2024, then I'd say those odds are extremely low. maybe 5-10%.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Under 30%. Even if you think 2024 is 50/50 (rather unlikely historically based on the occurrence of one party winning three straight Presidential elections) and have Trump as a slight favorite for re-election (55%) the odds are still only 28% for the GOP to win both 2020 and 2024. Even if you think Trump is a fairly strong favorite to win re-election(70%) than the GOP still only has a 35% chance of victory in both 2020 and 2024 assuming you think 2024 is at best 50/50.

[Cassandra]

Under 30%. Even if you think 2024 is 50/50 (rather unlikely historically based on the occurrence of one party winning three straight Presidential elections) and have Trump as a slight favorite for re-election (55%) the odds are still only 28% for the GOP to win both 2020 and 2024. Even if you think Trump is a fairly strong favorite to win re-election(70%) than the GOP still only has a 35% chance of victory in both 2020 and 2024 assuming you think 2024 is at best 50/50.

Everybody who does not understand how odds work, read this post. In short. 70% in 2020 * 50% in 2024 = 35% (because you're multiplying decimals)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

30% chance, in the absence of John McCain, AZ is trending Dem, along with NV, CO and NM

[Cassandra]

30% chance, in the absence of John McCain, AZ is trending Dem, along with NV, CO and NM

Do you think the GOP is clearly favored in one of those years? If both 2020 and 2024 are 50/50, then the odds of this happening would be 25%. But I can't see the GOP three-peating, given how rare that is historically. My guess on the odds would be 12%.

[Sir Mohamed]

There is a greater chance Dems win 2020, 24 and 28 similar to the Reagan/Bush I era.

[Person Man]

I would say 2020, historically speaking and based on macroeconomics, Tilt (though closer to Lean)  R.  Based on approvals, the campaign starts at Likely (though closer to Lean) D. Historically, the Democrats will probably run a pretty poor campaign.

They will learn a lot in 2020 about who they want to run or will have the sheer excitement to do really well in 2024. There is also bound to be some sort of major disaster instead of simply a steady drip of corruption and oppression. I give the Democrats an 80% chance of winning in 2024, even if their campaign completely collapses in a way that they lose the house, win less than 200 evs, and Trump wins a majority of the PV.

[Reaganfan]

America seems to like the 8 year swings. My guess is a Republican victory in '20, followed by a Democrat victory in '24.

[here2view]

2020 is essentially a 50/50 tossup

If Trump wins in 2020, then 2024 gives the GOP about a 25% chance

If Trump loses in 2020, then 2024 gives the GOP about a 50% chance

Overall, the GOP odds would be 13%

[Ilhan Apologist]

Less than 30%. Trump is no Reagan.

[MillennialModerate]

Virtually zero.

2020:
Trump/Biden: GOP has 20%
Trump/Anyone else: GOP has 60% (sickening isn’t it?)

2024:
If Trump wins in ‘20: GOP has 2%
If Trump loses in ‘20: GOP has 40%

[MarkD]

Less than 30%. Trump is no Reagan.

^^^

[Medal506]

There is a greater chance Dems win 2020, 24 and 28 similar to the Reagan/Bush I era.

The only way that happens is if John Delaney wins the democratic nomination.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

There is a greater chance Dems win 2020, 24 and 28 similar to the Reagan/Bush I era.

The only way that happens is if John Delaney wins the democratic nomination.

WHAT?!

[Medal506]

There is a greater chance Dems win 2020, 24 and 28 similar to the Reagan/Bush I era.

The only way that happens is if John Delaney wins the democratic nomination.

WHAT?!

Delaney would be a two term president and he’d be the Democrats Ronald Reagan. He’d be a two term president and then in 2028 Charlie Baker (his Vice President former Republican changed to Democrat) wins in a blue wave. Moderate democrats will win out. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Cortez will lead to eight years of Trump and four years of Cruz.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

There is a greater chance Dems win 2020, 24 and 28 similar to the Reagan/Bush I era.

The only way that happens is if John Delaney wins the democratic nomination.

WHAT?!

Delaney would be a two term president and he’d be the Democrats Ronald Reagan. He’d be a two term president and then in 2028 Charlie Baker (his Vice President former Republican changed to Democrat) wins in a blue wave. Moderate democrats will win out. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Cortez will lead to eight years of Trump and four years of Cruz.

Yeah, it's not like Democrats have nominated moderates in every election since 1976 or anything.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

About 10%.

[brucejoel99]

1-in-10.

[Person Man]

1-in-10.

Maybe. I think it really depends on the business cycle. If technological change (the internet, robots, JIT from anywhere tech) has made inflation obsolete, then maybe everyone will just live off of loans forever. That complicates things. I think hard times are ahead.

The key for Republicans winning a 2nd and 3rd term would be that there's a recession in 2021 and quick recovery in 2023/2024. However, even if the next recession isn't bad, because interest rates, taxes are low and deficits are high, the recovery will be slow.

[brucejoel99]

1-in-10.

Maybe. I think it really depends on the business cycle. If technological change (the internet, robots, JIT from anywhere tech) has made inflation obsolete, then maybe everyone will just live off of loans forever. That complicates things. I think hard times are ahead.

The key for Republicans winning a 2nd and 3rd term would be that there's a recession in 2021 and quick recovery in 2023/2024. However, even if the next recession isn't bad, because interest rates, taxes are low and deficits are high, the recovery will be slow.

Indeed. On top of all that as well, if the issue of illegal immigration is still a winning issue for Republicans come 2024, then the Trumpist base that the 2024 Republican nominee could hope bring out to vote for them won't likely be any smaller.

[SingingAnalyst]

2020: better than 50%
2024: if Trump wins in 2020, under 30%.

So, under 30%.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Even if we just assume the odds are 50-50 in both 2020 and 2024 then its a 25% chance the GOP wins both. So under 30% definitely.