What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024? (user search)
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  What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?
#1
70+%
 
#2
50-70%
 
#3
30-50%
 
#4
Under 30%
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 80

Author Topic: What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?  (Read 2474 times)
brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,737
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« on: July 23, 2019, 04:41:38 PM »

1-in-10.
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brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,737
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2019, 07:51:52 PM »


Maybe. I think it really depends on the business cycle. If technological change (the internet, robots, JIT from anywhere tech) has made inflation obsolete, then maybe everyone will just live off of loans forever. That complicates things. I think hard times are ahead.

The key for Republicans winning a 2nd and 3rd term would be that there's a recession in 2021 and quick recovery in 2023/2024. However, even if the next recession isn't bad, because interest rates, taxes are low and deficits are high, the recovery will be slow.

Indeed. On top of all that as well, if the issue of illegal immigration is still a winning issue for Republicans come 2024, then the Trumpist base that the 2024 Republican nominee could hope bring out to vote for them won't likely be any smaller.
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