What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024? (user search)
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  What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?
#1
70+%		  
#2
50-70%		  
#3
30-50%		  
#4
Under 30%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 80

Author Topic: What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?  (Read 2463 times)
Cassandra
Situationist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,672
« on: June 16, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »
Quote from: Former GM 1184AZ on June 15, 2019, 11:18:24 PM
Under 30%. Even if you think 2024 is 50/50 (rather unlikely historically based on the occurrence of one party winning three straight Presidential elections) and have Trump as a slight favorite for re-election (55%) the odds are still only 28% for the GOP to win both 2020 and 2024. Even if you think Trump is a fairly strong favorite to win re-election(70%) than the GOP still only has a 35% chance of victory in both 2020 and 2024 assuming you think 2024 is at best 50/50.

Everybody who does not understand how odds work, read this post. In short. 70% in 2020 * 50% in 2024 = 35% (because you're multiplying decimals)
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Cassandra
Situationist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,672
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2019, 06:59:13 AM »
Quote from: Olawakandi on June 17, 2019, 06:52:33 AM
30% chance, in the absence of John McCain, AZ is trending Dem, along with NV, CO and NM

Do you think the GOP is clearly favored in one of those years? If both 2020 and 2024 are 50/50, then the odds of this happening would be 25%. But I can't see the GOP three-peating, given how rare that is historically. My guess on the odds would be 12%.
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