What are the odds the GOP wins the presidential election in 2020 and 2024?

[Person Man]

I would say 2020, historically speaking and based on macroeconomics, Tilt (though closer to Lean)  R.  Based on approvals, the campaign starts at Likely (though closer to Lean) D. Historically, the Democrats will probably run a pretty poor campaign.

They will learn a lot in 2020 about who they want to run or will have the sheer excitement to do really well in 2024. There is also bound to be some sort of major disaster instead of simply a steady drip of corruption and oppression. I give the Democrats an 80% chance of winning in 2024, even if their campaign completely collapses in a way that they lose the house, win less than 200 evs, and Trump wins a majority of the PV.

[Person Man]

1-in-10.

Maybe. I think it really depends on the business cycle. If technological change (the internet, robots, JIT from anywhere tech) has made inflation obsolete, then maybe everyone will just live off of loans forever. That complicates things. I think hard times are ahead.

The key for Republicans winning a 2nd and 3rd term would be that there's a recession in 2021 and quick recovery in 2023/2024. However, even if the next recession isn't bad, because interest rates, taxes are low and deficits are high, the recovery will be slow.