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July 23, 2019, 02:54:14 am
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  When will the divided government of the United States end?
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Author Topic: When will the divided government of the United States end?  (Read 1303 times)
TheRealRight
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« on: June 21, 2019, 10:46:25 pm »

When do you all expect the current divided government to end? Which party will have full control of the federal government and when?

I do not expect trifectas of any kind until 2024 at the earliest no matter who wins the presidency in 2020.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2019, 12:26:59 pm »

2020 is an uphill climb for both sides. Republicans are not favored to take back the House, Democrats have a tough road to a senate majority.

2024 only if Trump is reelected. Democrats would keep the House and most likely take back the senate in 2022. In 2024, a Democratic president will get elected. If Trump loses 2020, the Democrats might win back the senate, but it's more likely they don't. If they don't, divided government probably lasts at least to the 2028 cycle, because a Democratic president (or Biden's vice president if he is #46 and retires after one term) is still favored to win 2024 (especially due to demographic trends).

The bigger question is whether any trifecta will last longer than two years?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2019, 01:20:06 pm »

2022 is the earliest likely trifecta. Control of Congress is extremely unlikely to change in 2020. The only way the Dems can retake the Senate in 2020 is if the Alabama GOP is crazy enuf to renominate Roy Moore. I don't see any vulnerable Democratic Senate seats in 2022, but multiple vulnerable Republican ones. If the Democrats gain the White House, the only reasonable possibility for not having a Democratic trifecta is if the Dems lose enuf Representative to lose the House even as they retake the Senate.
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here2view
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2019, 10:11:04 pm »

I believe the House and Senate are pretty close to Safe D and Safe R in 2020. I don't see the House flipping back to the GOP as long as Trump is President, much like after 2010 when Obama was President.

If Trump wins in 2020, he'll have divided government until he leaves office. He'd probably have a Democratic House and Senate after 2022.

If a Democrat wins in 2020, he/she will likely have the House but not the Senate. He/She could lose the House in 2022.

2024 is the likeliest answer, due to there being a reset of sorts.
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2019, 10:32:42 pm »

2020 is an uphill climb for both sides. Republicans are not favored to take back the House, Democrats have a tough road to a senate majority.

2024 only if Trump is reelected. Democrats would keep the House and most likely take back the senate in 2022. In 2024, a Democratic president will get elected. If Trump loses 2020, the Democrats might win back the senate, but it's more likely they don't. If they don't, divided government probably lasts at least to the 2028 cycle, because a Democratic president (or Biden's vice president if he is #46 and retires after one term) is still favored to win 2024 (especially due to demographic trends).

The bigger question is whether any trifecta will last longer than two years?

The Republican Trifecta lasted longer than two years under Bush.
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2019, 10:34:37 pm »
« Edited: June 23, 2019, 10:38:28 pm by TheRealRight »

It all comes down to who wins the 2020 Presidential election. If Trump wins again the next trifecta will be a Democratic trifecta in 2025. If Trump loses the next trifecta will be a Republican trifecta and the Democratic president will have a divided government for their entire term.

Timeline if Trump Wins:
2020: Divided Government - Republican President - Republican Senate - Democratic House
2022: Divided Government - Republican President - Democratic Senate - Democratic House
2024: Democratic Trifecta - Democratic President - Democratic Senate - Democratic House

Timeline if a Democrat Wins(Serves only one term):
2020: Divided Government - Democratic President - Republican Senate - Democratic House
2022: Divided Government - Democratic President - Democratic Senate - Republican House
2024: Republican Trifecta - Republican President - Republican Senate - Republican House
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2019, 02:56:09 pm »

2020 is an uphill climb for both sides. Republicans are not favored to take back the House, Democrats have a tough road to a senate majority.

2024 only if Trump is reelected. Democrats would keep the House and most likely take back the senate in 2022. In 2024, a Democratic president will get elected. If Trump loses 2020, the Democrats might win back the senate, but it's more likely they don't. If they don't, divided government probably lasts at least to the 2028 cycle, because a Democratic president (or Biden's vice president if he is #46 and retires after one term) is still favored to win 2024 (especially due to demographic trends).

The bigger question is whether any trifecta will last longer than two years?

The Republican Trifecta lasted longer than two years under Bush.

Can't speak for President Johnson but I really don't think it was the intent to take past trifectas into consideration, considering his entire comment was in relation to future trifectas.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2019, 04:13:02 pm »

2020 is an uphill climb for both sides. Republicans are not favored to take back the House, Democrats have a tough road to a senate majority.

2024 only if Trump is reelected. Democrats would keep the House and most likely take back the senate in 2022. In 2024, a Democratic president will get elected. If Trump loses 2020, the Democrats might win back the senate, but it's more likely they don't. If they don't, divided government probably lasts at least to the 2028 cycle, because a Democratic president (or Biden's vice president if he is #46 and retires after one term) is still favored to win 2024 (especially due to demographic trends).

The bigger question is whether any trifecta will last longer than two years?

The Republican Trifecta lasted longer than two years under Bush.

Can't speak for President Johnson but I really don't think it was the intent to take past trifectas into consideration, considering his entire comment was in relation to future trifectas.

Yes, my remarks or my question were more about the future. The 2002 midterm were some sort of anomaly due to the post 9/11 rally around the flag feelings. But even in recent decades, if you don't count the Bush Administration, the last trifecta that lasted for full four years was the Carter presidency. Before that, you need to go to the Kennedy/Johnson years.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2019, 04:12:44 pm »

2020 Dem Trifecta will last until 2024
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2019, 11:40:01 pm »

2020 Dem Trifecta will last until 2024

That's not realistic. A trifecta of any kind that is a result of the 2020 elections would be an upset. Republicans will hold the Senate until 2022.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2019, 10:10:17 am »

If Trump reelected, D trifecta in 2024
If Trump loses, R trifecta in 2032, because if Biden will serve two terms, than his VP will serve one term as President and if Biden will serve one term, than his VP will serve two terms
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2019, 10:07:36 pm »

If Trump reelected, D trifecta in 2024
If Trump loses, R trifecta in 2032, because if Biden will serve two terms, than his VP will serve one term as President and if Biden will serve one term, than his VP will serve two terms

That's only about the president. What do you think will happen to the legislature if Biden becomes president? Usually the legislature is the opposite party of the president after that presidents first midterm.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2019, 03:02:17 am »

2020 with Biden and Dem Congress
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