Is the UK actually going to break up soon?

[LabourJersey]

Perhaps they should. This little experiment has gone on for too long.   

We might soon be able to ask this question about your country, the way things are going.......

Neither country will survive as currently constructed, but the United States at least has a chance to adapt.

The UK is more flexible than the US, since it doesn't have to worry about constitutional amendments.

Every other free country in the world is more flexible with their political systems than the US.

[Epaminondas]

Such a breakup would condemn England & Wales to eternal Conservative rule.

A quasi-independant Northern Ireland seems likely in the next 2 decades - the real challenge would be getting the Northern rump state to willingly unite.

These DUP voters are almost as bad as the US Bible Belt.

[PSOL]

Such a breakup would condemn England & Wales to eternal Conservative rule.

A quasi-independant Northern Ireland seems likely in the next 2 decades - the real challenge would be getting the Northern rump state to willingly unite.

These DUP voters are almost as bad as the US Bible Belt.

Usually decolonization and loss of territory has then coincided with increased support of Labour and the welfare state; see the decolonization of India and Clement Atlee’s reforms, that wouldn’t be possible if the black hole that was the Indian subcontinent wasn’t gone.

[CumbrianLefty]

Such a breakup would condemn England & Wales to eternal Conservative rule.

Except that only one of Labour's election wins since WW2 wouldn't have happened without Scotland - indeed, its secession could be seen as making a Labour overall majority in rUK *more* likely if you think the present SNP electoral dominance there is here to stay (though for me, the jury is still out on that even if they seem well placed right now)

[Coldstream]

Northern Ireland - the status quo is untenable for ever, but I think people overestimate the desire for immediate unification. Pre-Brexit polling suggested even a majority of Catholics wanted to remain in the UK, it’s only really Sinn Fein that seriously push for independence and they only command the loyalty of 25-30% of the electorate really. Having said that, with demographic changes, I could see something happening. Maybe it’s as simple as splitting it up between Loyalist and Nationalist areas. I also think people are underestimating the danger of forcing the loyalists to go in to Ireland without their consent - a newly united Irish state would immediately have an IRA style insurgency to worry about from millions of unhappy people.

Scotland - there will probably be another vote, which it’s not impossible the SNP could win but essentially most of the independence movement is based on a dislike for the Tories in Westminster - I’m no more convinced now than I was in 2014 that’s enough for a majority (particularly when the SNP took such a hit in 2017). And if there is another referendum and they lose - then it will truly be over for decades. Also the SNP are in danger of fatigue given how long they’ve been in power and the fact that they are essentially a one woman party, as they were a one man party under Salmond, there’s no obvious candidate for the succession after Sturgeon who has her ability.

[darklordoftech]

These DUP voters are almost as bad as the US Bible Belt.

After all, they’re the ones who colonized the US Bible Belt.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

[Coldstream]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

...You’ve not met many loyalists have you? Their entire political identity is based around not being Irish. Like how the Catholic’s entire identity is based around not being British - they haven’t come to an accommodation with the prospect of being British after 200 years so there’s no reason to think the reverse would happen. Ulster is already partitioned anyway, part of it is with the republic - there’s no reason more counties can’t go and join the republic and the rest remain part of the UK if it came to it.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

...You’ve not met many loyalists have you? Their entire political identity is based around not being Irish. Like how the Catholic’s entire identity is based around not being British - they haven’t come to an accommodation with the prospect of being British after 200 years so there’s no reason to think the reverse would happen. Ulster is already partitioned anyway, part of it is with the republic - there’s no reason more counties can’t go and join the republic and the rest remain part of the UK if it came to it.

Yes, I know all that I assure you. Stranger things have happened, however.

A further division of NI was proposed in the 1920s and rejected as it would make the remaining rump province unviable - indeed the present six counties (and not the full nine that make up Ulster, don't forget) are arguably the bare minimum to make it a feasible proposition.

[LabourJersey]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

What kind of accommodations? The only thing I could imagine is a federalized Irish state where NI has a lot of autonomy in its regional policies to ensure that the unionists have some kind of voice. I definitely don't see the ROI completely changing their gov't for the sake of comforting people who don't wish to be Irish. 

Reunification sounds really good but people dramatically oversimplify the process it needs to take. I guess a second partition would be more practical, but the threat of violence would still be there

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

What kind of accommodations? The only thing I could imagine is a federalized Irish state where NI has a lot of autonomy in its regional policies to ensure that the unionists have some kind of voice. I definitely don't see the ROI completely changing their gov't for the sake of comforting people who don't wish to be Irish.  

Reunification sounds really good but people dramatically oversimplify the process it needs to take. I guess a second partition would be more practical, but the threat of violence would still be there

Well yes, that sort of thing would surely have to happen.

There's actually a decent argument that NI Protestants would in reality have quite a lot of clout in a united Ireland, very possibly disproportionate to their actual numbers. And some of their leaders may even realise this themselves, though being able to say such heretical things in public is still some way away I agree.

[Coldstream]

I don't see a partition of NI as any more realistic a prospect now than it was a century ago.

If it ever joins the Republic, it will do so in full. And its not *totally* impossible the unionist community will come to some sort of accommodation with that prospect if it appears inescapable.

...You’ve not met many loyalists have you? Their entire political identity is based around not being Irish. Like how the Catholic’s entire identity is based around not being British - they haven’t come to an accommodation with the prospect of being British after 200 years so there’s no reason to think the reverse would happen. Ulster is already partitioned anyway, part of it is with the republic - there’s no reason more counties can’t go and join the republic and the rest remain part of the UK if it came to it.

Yes, I know all that I assure you. Stranger things have happened, however.

A further division of NI was proposed in the 1920s and rejected as it would make the remaining rump province unviable - indeed the present six counties (and not the full nine that make up Ulster, don't forget) are arguably the bare minimum to make it a feasible proposition.

I didn’t forget...that’s why I said it...

Point is Ulster is already split, so there’s no reason not to split it again. Anyway such a rump would be no more unviable than the country is now - where it’s been without an executive for over 2 years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

[Epaminondas]

Point is Ulster is already split, so there’s no reason not to split it again.

A political split would have huge administrative costs. A simple example that I'm familiar with is that Belfast university has campuses in Coleraine and Derry, employing thousands of workers and depending on Westminster funding. What happens to them if half of NI joins another political entity? Similarly for trains and export rules for business who would suddenly have to follow different procedures, pay different taxes, change offices they've known for decades.

A massive hassle, and without the island being actually united?
I haven't lived there for a while now, but I doubt there's any appetite for that in the North.

[Coldstream]

Point is Ulster is already split, so there’s no reason not to split it again.

A political split would have huge administrative costs. A simple example that I'm familiar with is that Belfast university has campuses in Coleraine and Derry, employing thousands of workers and depending on Westminster funding. What happens to them if half of NI joins another political entity? Similarly for trains and export rules for business who would suddenly have to follow different procedures, pay different taxes, change offices they've known for decades.

A massive hassle, and without the island being actually united?
I haven't lived there for a while now, but I doubt there's any appetite for that in the North.

All of those are problems, or equivalent, that the people would face if the entirety of NI joined ROI.

This would also have the benefit of not lumbering the ROI with a potential insurgency from the unionists, one which they would be ill-equipped to handle.

I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s hardly impossible. And it’s certainly more likely than expecting Unionists to come round to being Irish.

[ProudModerate2]

I would be highly surprised if NI was not part of the Republic by, say, 2040. There's just many reasons why the current set up is not tenable.

Scotland at this point is 50:50. The Bats have the initiative and momentum, but a miscalculation on a second referenda could derail the project; and staying too long in power could induce fatigue.

Welsh independence is ... Unlikely.

This.

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

Kingdom of South Britain

[DINGO Joe]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

Kingdom of South Britain

"Less Britain"

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

Why not simply the "United Kingdom", with the rest dropped?

[CumbrianLefty]

Without both NI and Scotland it would be such a different country that is arguably misleading.

One is reminded how the rump "Yugoslavia" stopped pretending it was a continuation of the pre-1991 model and renamed itself "Serbia and Montenegro" until the latter bit also broke away. I suspect the same might apply to any "England and Wales" statelet before too long.......

[parochial boy]

Little England would be the obvious answer...

[Badger]

I hope so but I doubt it.

We need a stable and strong UK. Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

[Lord Halifax]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

The easiest solution would be to call it the Kingdom of Britain since it consists of the old Roman Britain and the inhabitants identify as British.

[Lord Halifax]

Losing Scotland would weaken the US's strongest NATO ally.

I doubt it would affect Turkey much.

[Former President tack50]

How would a "rump UK" be named after Scotland and Northern Ireland have seceded?
"United Kingdom of England and Wales"?

I suppose they would like to retain the "United Kingdom" moniker to display continuity and avoid overly elaborate renaming procedures. On the other hand, still calling the country "Great Britain" could be considered a bit preposterous, offend the Scots, and even lead to a new Macedonia-style naming controversy.

The Disunited Kingdom of Lesser Britain and No Ireland