A slightly different 2008

[Joe Biden 2024]

Let's say that in 2006, instead of retiring, Mitt Romney decides to run for a second term as Governor of Massachusetts, and loses to Deval Patrick. At the same time, George Allen defeats Jim Webb in the Virginia Senate race.

As a result of their races, Allen announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination, while Romney decides not to run.

Does 2008 turn out differently?

[Mister Mets]

I'm not sure it changes much.

Allen would have some benefits in the establishment favorite role, as he wouldn't have Romney's reputation as a flip-flopper or the Mormon baggage. On the other hand, he is likely a less impressive political figure and wouldn't be as strong in New Hampshire.

Some guesses...
- Allen would probably Iowa and prevent the Huckabee surge.
- McCain would win New Hampshire by a lot more.
- Allen might win South Carolina, since McCain only needed a third of the vote thanks to Huckabee, Thompson and Romney.

[dw93]

Allen could end up being McCain's running mate if the primaries end up being closer.

[brucejoel99]

He could knock out Huckabee, & keep Thompson out if he gets in early. Since Rudy was doomed in Iowa, and McCain was a moderate, Allen might win Iowa, & then South Carolina, but I can't see him as the nominee. He might be able to get some Tea Party support in 2012, but he'd probably be considered too establishment.

[morgankingsley]

Not very different