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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Why did Obama do better in PA, MI, WI than in MN in 2008 (by a lot in MI, WI)
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Author Topic: Why did Obama do better in PA, MI, WI than in MN in 2008 (by a lot in MI, WI)  (Read 1487 times)
#Split California In 4
Solid4096
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« on: June 26, 2019, 04:50:14 pm »

Obama did very slightly better in Pennsylvania than in Minnesota in 2008, and he did 4 points better in Wisconsin, and 6 points better in Michigan. This all went inverse in 2016 when Donald Trump only lost Minnesota out of all 4 of these states. Why did Minnesota end up as being the Obamas weakest state of the 4 in 2008?
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2019, 05:16:17 pm »

MN isn't all that "elastic".
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SInNYC
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2019, 07:47:09 am »

The Great Recession hurt MI and PA far more than MN, which was one of the states least affected (MN has always avoided boom-bust cycles compared to other states). WI is harder to explain since they are also relatively stable economically.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2019, 05:56:09 pm »

MI and PA got hit HARD by the financial crisis. Both states also have large urban cities with lot of black voters. Obama's 08 performance in MI was the strongest by a Dem since LBJ 64 and his WI performance was the strongest by any candidate since LBJ 64.

MN is more white, and Minneapolis-St. Paul has a diversified economy that was more resilient to the financial crisis.
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Wazza
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2019, 03:59:03 am »

There are more racist hicks in rural Minnesota.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2019, 05:13:43 pm »

The GOP held there convention in St. Paul in 2008. That might of been the reason why the margins were not as bad for McCain.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2019, 10:30:56 pm »

Palin's persona and accent had obvious appeal to rural MN.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2019, 12:27:47 am »

The reason for the MN/WI trending divergence was primarily because the McCain campaign decided to dump a ton of money into Minnesota. I remember reading somewhere that Minnesota was the only state in the country where McCain outspent Obama. Somewhere in the upper echelons of the GOP brass, somebody thought Minnesota was the pathway to victory.

Further evidence of this can be seen in the 2008 Wisconsin trend map:


You can see that everywhere in a Minnesota media market trended R and more or less everywhere else trended D.
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Hydera
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2019, 01:48:36 am »
« Edited: July 08, 2019, 01:56:43 am by Hydera »

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-governor-s-approval-data-steady/28486949/

Apparently Tim Pawlenty had a approval rating of 54% Approval to 31% Approval and as mentioned the jobs figures in Minnesota declined later than Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan since Minnesota was less dependent on manufacturing. And other reasons mentioned helped McCain.


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538Electoral
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2019, 07:44:11 pm »

MN and PA weren't far apart.

The GOP held their convention in St. Paul.
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