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  Regions and divisions
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« on: June 29, 2019, 06:51:13 pm »

How often has it occurred that a presidential candidate has won each of the four census regions or even every single division of the United States?

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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2019, 01:26:51 am »

The trivial answers are obviously:

  • 1984
  • 1980
  • 1972
  • 1964

Furthermore, Woodrow Wilson won all regions in 1912. (But he obviously didn't deliver the Pacific West, which went to Theodore Roosevelt.)

But what about the other years?

Did Clinton win all regions in 1996?
Is it even possible that he won every single division back in 1992?
Did Johnson deliver the Southern vote in 1964? If so, even all three divisions of the South?
Did Eisenhower win the Southern vote in 1956. (He definitely didn't in 1952.) He may also have taken every single division.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2019, 08:35:30 am »

The trivial answers are obviously:

  • 1984
  • 1980
  • 1972
  • 1964

Furthermore, Woodrow Wilson won all regions in 1912. (But he obviously didn't deliver the Pacific West, which went to Theodore Roosevelt.)

But what about the other years?

Did Clinton win all regions in 1996? Yes
Is it even possible that he won every single division back in 1992? No, he lost West South Central, East South Central, and Mountain.
Did Johnson deliver the Southern vote in 1964? If so, even all three divisions of the South? Yes, overall, but lost the East South Central. Won the other two.
Did Eisenhower win the Southern vote in 1956. (He definitely didn't in 1952.) He may also have taken every single division. Yes, but lost the East South Central, won the other two.
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2019, 12:07:29 am »


Thank you for all your help!

So, there were three presidents who won all divisions, right?

Reagan (1980+1984)
Nixon (1972)
Roosevelt (1932+1936)

And five presidents won all regions, right?

Clinton (1992+1996)
Johnson (1964)
Eisenhower (1956)
Roosevelt (1940)
Wilson (1912)

Have I omitted anyone?
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2019, 02:20:27 pm »
« Edited: July 02, 2019, 02:31:42 pm by Karpatsky »

How often has it occurred that a presidential candidate has won each of the four census regions or even every single division of the United States?

My dataset only goes as far back as 1868, but since then, this has happened 7 times:

1928: Hoover's worst was West South Central, which he won by 2.6%
1932: Roosevelt's worst was New England, which he won by 0.8%
1936: Roosevelt's worst was New England, which he won by 7.4%
1972: Nixon's worst was New England, which he won by 5.8%
1980: Reagan's worst was East South Central, which he won by 1.0%
1984: Reagan's worst was Midatlantic, which he won by 9.4%
1988: Bush's worst was New England, which he won by 0.2%

Near misses:

1872: Grant lost West South Central by 0.3%
1940: Roosevelt lost West North Central by 3.3%
1956: Eisenhower lost East South Central by 2.5%
1992: Clinton lost West South Central by 0.8%, East South Central by 1.0% and Mountain by 1.8%
1996: Clinton lost West South Central by 0.05%, East South Central by 1.6% and Mountain by 3.8%

I also manually checked 1852, because it was the only plausible candidate between 1868 and the consolidation of the lower 48: Pierce lost East South Central by 4.9%.

It is interesting to see which landslides managed this and which didn't - it shows how different regions have become more or less politically polarized over time (acknowledging that these regions are subpar for political analysis):

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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2019, 07:48:02 pm »

My dataset only goes as far back as 1868, but since then, this has happened 7 times:

1928: Hoover's worst was West South Central, which he won by 2.6%
1932: Roosevelt's worst was New England, which he won by 0.8%
1936: Roosevelt's worst was New England, which he won by 7.4%
1972: Nixon's worst was New England, which he won by 5.8%
1980: Reagan's worst was East South Central, which he won by 1.0%
1984: Reagan's worst was Midatlantic, which he won by 9.4%
1988: Bush's worst was New England, which he won by 0.2%

Bush Sr. really won all divisions? Wow! Shocked
I considered it, but eventually concluded that Dukakis having won his home state of Massachusetts, which is the most populous state in New England by far, and Rhode Island by such a handy margin couldn't have lost the whole division. But I that was obviously a misestimation. Bush's strong performance in New Hampshire seems to have helped him prevail in New England.



Hoover winning every single division in 1928 is quite a surprise, too. I estimated that he ought to have lost ESC, but Kentucky and Tennessee outnumbering Alabama and Mississippi voter-wise must have been the decisive factor for his win. Even worse for my gut instinct - Hoover obviously fared worse in WSC. Undecided



It's interesting to see that it has mostly been East South Central that spoiled a landslide victory for candidates of either party. Even nowadays a Democrat would be able to win all nine divisions thanks to ESC.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2019, 06:29:51 am »

Taking a look at the divisions without state boundaries, it's pretty cool to see how things have changed

2004:



2008:



2012:



2016:



Democrats truly were the "costal" party from a division perspective in 2016.
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« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2019, 02:51:58 pm »

Democrats truly were the "costal" party from a division perspective in 2016.

But in 2020, they will definitely win back the Northern coast, and they are likely to even conquer the whole West. When did this happen last? In 1964?
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