This scenario would probably be President Edwards, elected in 2008. Edwards would have Senator Barack Obama be VP and Edwards/Obama would be running for reelection. Rick Santorum would have won the primary by an easier but still close win in Iowa then a win in South Carolina. That would knock out Gingrich and a strong southern/midwestern campaign knocks Romney out of the running a few weeks after Super Tuesday with Paul just winning around 10-20% of the vote in each state. Santorum chooses Tim Pawlenty to win over moderates and establishment figures that still were angry with Romney's primary lose
Edwards: 341
Santorum: 197
Santorum wins Evangicals easily which helps in Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana flipping two states Edwards and his neo-populism won in 2008. Santorum is unable to win moderates over even as Pawlenty has a strong appeal. Obama strengths Edward with African-Americans which helps keep Virginia and North Carolina.