Is Alaska a dark horse opportunity for Democrats in 2020

[Jesus save us]

Dan Sullivan(R) is up for reelection in 2020, and his senate seat is listed as Safe R by Cook and Sabato.  It doesn't seem to be on the forums radar either, and being Alaska it doesn't get much polling.

There has however been one poll on the senate election, which show Forrest Dunbar tied with Dan Sullivan if he runs as a Democrat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska#Polling

I've no idea of the pollsters credibility, but it seems conceivable to me- Sullivan only won the seat by 2% in 2014, a Republican wave year, and Alaska is as idiosyncratic as it is overlooked.

[Politician]

Yes, but it is a longshot. The only Dem candidate, Al Gross, is running as an independent, which helps in a red state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Al Gross, Barry Grissom and Cal Cunningham are far better candidates than Teresa Greenfield, Teresa Tomlinson and MJ Hegar.

Yes, I think 2020 will be a wave and all three males above, including Mark Kelly will win

[Adam Griffin]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Had Begich not run for Gov, he could have run for this seat

[Lechasseur]

Had Begich not run for Gov, he could have run for this seat

Had Begich not ran, the Governor's Mansion wouldn't be in GOP hand right now

[Pollster]

Yes - Alaska gets frequently overlooked because of its distance from the mainland, deceiving Presidential results, and widespread belief that it is a traditional rural state (despite the overwhelming majority of the population living in the state's three major cities, and the rural areas being mostly Dem-leaning Alaska natives).

It is an inexpensive state to campaign in, and incredibly elastic (almost 60% of voters are registered nonpartisan/independent). The "independent running with the support of the Democratic Party" model is incredibly smart. Progressives should focus on organizing in the state in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

Had Begich not run for Gov, he could have run for this seat

Had Begich not ran, the Governor's Mansion wouldn't be in GOP hand right now

Nah. Bill Walker was pretty unpopular.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Had Begich not run for Gov, he could have run for this seat

Had Begich not ran, the Governor's Mansion wouldn't be in GOP hand right now

Bill Walker dropped out

[smoltchanov]

Alaska has a strong libertarian leanings, so the best candiddate would be either "libertarian Democrat" or socially liberal libertarian running with Democratic support..

[TML]

I think it will probably take a “perfect storm” for Democrats to flip AK. Remember that their last statewide winner won because his opponent was carrying legal baggage at the time.

Geographically speaking, it is the suburban/exurban areas in AK which are the key drivers of Republican dominance in the state. Democrats need to find ways to replicate the suburban success they’ve had elsewhere in the country in order to make inroads in this state.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously. Alaska is one of three Democratic-trending states Trump won by 15 points or more that Democrats could flip a Senate seat in in 2020. KS and MT are the other potential pick-up opportunities despite "polarization" and "presidential year."

[Ilhan Apologist]

Obviously. Alaska is one of three Democratic-trending states Trump won by 15 points or more that Democrats could flip a Senate seat in in 2020. KS and MT are the other potential pick-up opportunities despite "polarization" and "presidential year."

You think MT is trending Democrat?

[Gracile]

It's possible if there is a big Democratic year nationwide, but I think Sullivan is the favorite at the moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of these new candidates are just testing the waters to see if they can get political donations,  they should ask for donations once they have polling available

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously. Alaska is one of three Democratic-trending states Trump won by 15 points or more that Democrats could flip a Senate seat in in 2020. KS and MT are the other potential pick-up opportunities despite "polarization" and "presidential year."

You think MT is trending Democrat?

Slightly, yeah. I think 2016 was more of an aberration due to how unpopular Clinton was in the state, but the most populous counties (I’m trying to avoid the term "urban") are only becoming more and more Democratic, with the significant exception of the Billings area, where national Democrats haven’t made the necessary inroads to be truly competitive in a presidential year even in a favorable environment yet. I expect something like Trump +14 in 2020, maybe +10-11 in a Democratic wave. Granted, some of the swing will also be a result of improvement in Democratic strongholds where Clinton underperformed badly in 2016 (Missoula, counties which are heavily Native American, etc.), but it’s extremely hard to see the state voting more Republican than, say, R+15 in the long term.

[voice_of_resistance]

Absolutely, this one is definitely an easier lift than MT (until Bullock gets in). The state's presidential margin has been lurching leftward, so if someone shut up about guns and managed to sound reasonable on climate change, it's a very enticing pickup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it is a dark horse race

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

I'm not confident in Alaska being a possible pick up after geriatric dotard Don Young won by 6.5% in 2018

[Politician]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

I'm not confident in Alaska being a possible pick up after geriatric dotard Don Young won by 6.5% in 2018

Young is somehow popular in Alaska, especially with Native Alaskans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This can very well end up being the senate map, with Ernst and Collins winning and the blue dogs winning.

[We Live in Black and White]

Maybe. It's a weird state and it's impossible to poll, plus Sullivan is the very definition of a do-nothing incumbent, but it's best if we consider it at least Likely R territory for now.

[Ye We Can]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

I'm not confident in Alaska being a possible pick up after geriatric dotard Don Young won by 6.5% in 2018

Young is somehow popular in Alaska, especially with Native Alaskans.

He's the King of Pork and while pork sucks it's done a lot for Alaska. Especially how senior he's become-why would a small state want to throw that away?

[smoltchanov]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

I'm not confident in Alaska being a possible pick up after geriatric dotard Don Young won by 6.5% in 2018

Young is somehow popular in Alaska, especially with Native Alaskans.

He's the King of Pork and while pork sucks it's done a lot for Alaska. Especially how senior he's become-why would a small state want to throw that away?

+1. Young is far from being the worst Alaska could send to Washington...

[BuckeyeNut]

It's been a potential pickup for some time. I'm not sure why AK gets avoided (maybe something to do with the fact that national Dem orgs see no opportunity in a predominantly rural state) but the shifts there have been phenomenal. Between 2004-2012, AK was the only state to swing Democratic in all 3 presidential elections, it had a Democratic Senator (who barely lost in a R wave) and elected a (effectively) Democratic Governor in the same cycle.

A couple of million injected into field ops in the state could go a long way.

I agree with you that a few million invested could make a huge difference, but field? What would that even look like? Maybe I’m part & parcel to the Democrats overlooking rural states—though I certainly hope not—but Alaska is a state where you have to campaign by biplane. My understanding is also that you can’t just flip the state by pouring the money into Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau given anachronistic rural support for Democrats not found in the contiguous United States.