By 2050, how many female presidents?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:23:37 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  By 2050, how many female presidents?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: How many female presidents will the United States have had by 2050?
#1
None
 
#2
1
 
#3
2
 
#4
3
 
#5
4 or more
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: By 2050, how many female presidents?  (Read 1444 times)
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 06, 2019, 05:12:49 AM »

What do you think, how many women will have been in the Oval Office by the midst of this century?

I think there are going to be at least two, voted three. The 2020s will almost definitely see a female president. Either Kamala Harris or Liz Warren in 2021, or either Kamala Harris (as Joe Biden's running mate) or Gretchen Whitmer in 2025, at latest in 2029.

I'd expect one Republican female president in the 2030s. Maybe there is going to one more of either party in the 2030s or 2040s. My prediction, which is only pure speculation, is that this woman will succeed to office from the vice presidency. (Random note: Considering there was at least one vice president succeeding to the presidency each two decades from 1841 to 1974, the next presidential succession is long overdue already.)

Thoughts?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,798
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2019, 07:04:29 AM »

1-Kamala Harris 2021
Logged
beaver2.0
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,769


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -0.52

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2019, 08:52:09 AM »

1
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2019, 09:31:47 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 02:41:38 PM by Mister Mets »

This will include seven presidential elections (2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048.)

There's been a recent tendency for Presidents to serve two full terms, but odds are something weird will happen at some point, and there may be an older President who doesn't seek reelection, so we're probably looking at 4-5 Presidents.

I'd guess 1-2 will be women. There seems to be about a 30 percent chance that 2020 will see the election of a Democratic woman (Harris, Warren, slight chance of Klobuchar) and if it's Biden, his running mate is almost certainly a woman, so she'd be the favorite in '24.

The Republican bench on women is low, given the number in the House, although Nikki Haley is a top contender.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2019, 12:22:02 PM »

Probably 2. I think Harris or Warren will be the next President so that's one already.
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2019, 01:15:03 PM »

0.

Ancient patriarchal gender identities will not be recognized in 2050.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,044


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2019, 01:26:42 PM »

I'll say 1. It seems like this is bound to happen sooner rather than later.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2019, 09:56:48 AM »

Following from Mister Mets' argument, there will be 4-5 presidents during that time period (probably closer to 4).

Let's take the chances of a female president as 50%. That means that the median would be of 2 female presidents and that there is a 12.5% chance of no female presidents (and also a 12.5% chance of all presidents after Trump being women)

In practice the chances are probably below perfect 50-50 odds so I could also see an argument for only 1, but 2 is probably still the most likely scenario.
Logged
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,741
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2019, 08:40:38 PM »

Queen Tulsi, Queen Blackburn, Queen Haley, Queen Noem.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2019, 09:27:43 PM »

Probably 2, at most 3. Harris in the 2020s, Stefanik in the 2030s, & maybe Ocasio-Cortez in the 2040s.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2019, 11:47:44 AM »

2
Logged
MarkD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2019, 12:07:30 PM »


Two it is.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2019, 02:47:54 PM »

2
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2019, 04:17:01 PM »

3. Harris in 2020s, Haley in 2030s, and Ocasio-Cortez in 2040s
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2019, 01:44:08 AM »

2. Harris in the 2020s and a GOPer in 2030s or 2040s.
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2019, 03:01:38 PM »

4
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2019, 03:18:07 PM »

There'll be 8 elections between now and then. Assuming all two term presidents, that means 4 new presidents by 2050. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say 2. If things keep going the way people say they are, it's hard for me to see the Democrats putting a man on the top of the ticket beyond 2020, even a minority in race or sexuality.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2019, 02:55:47 PM »

There's really no way to know this, but I think its pretty likely the answer is "none".

Assume Trump defeats Joe Biden in 2020.  Progressives are livid, and the backlash is enough to nominate AOC in 2024 but she fails spectacularly to a male Republican nominee (i.e., Pence, DeSantis, Pompeo, etc.).  Moderate Dems come back in 2028 by nominating Gavin Newsom or Hakeem Jeffries and defeating the Republican incumbent, and the Dem gets a second term in 2032. 

We're now to 2036 without a female president.  Its not hard to see Republicans putting up another White guy who is able to beat the Democratic nominee due to fatigue after Newsom/Jeffries' two terms.  Say the economy is good and he gets reelected in 2040.  Now we're to 2045 with no female POTUS. 
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2019, 04:08:40 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 04:13:50 PM by President Griffin »

I think we're coming close to the break-even point in general elections: where long-term outcomes in these contests will be reflective of gender (i.e. if a man and a woman are the two nominees, there is no handicap in who can win; female candidates have notably underperformed in federal contests by 1-2 points in the modern era). Of course, small sample sizes and all that. I wouldn't be surprised if we had 2 female Presidents (with 1 being a one-termer; women will likely continue to be held to a higher standard).

However, the GOP nominating a woman is practically out of the question right now, so maybe the chances are only like 1 in 4 for each future election based on today's trends. So seeing just 1 prior to 2050 is perfectly possible as well.

For us to get 2 female Presidents, we'd most likely need to see a strong trend of the GOP nominating men and the Democrats nominating women (not impossible).
Logged
Not_A_Doctor
Rookie
**
Posts: 38
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2019, 05:35:42 PM »

Queen Tulsi, Queen Blackburn, Queen Haley, Queen Noem.

Literally none of these women will ever be President.

Anyway, my guess would be 2 as well. probably some Republican who isn't relevant right now + AOC.
Logged
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,741
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2019, 12:54:25 AM »

Queen Tulsi, Queen Blackburn, Queen Haley, Queen Noem.

Literally none of these women will ever be President.

Anyway, my guess would be 2 as well. probably some Republican who isn't relevant right now + AOC.

Please grip a basic understanding of current events and politics then return to the site.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2019, 02:37:30 AM »

Dems: Warren (2021-2029) & AOC (2041-2050)
GOP: none
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2019, 02:55:20 PM »

The further we get from the present, the more likely the Presidents, male or female, will be people we don't currently recognize, or wouldn't consider serious contenders for the office.

Until about five years before the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama was a state senator with an interesting background.

About seven years before the 2000 presidential election, George W Bush was a failed congressional candidate whose dad served one term in the White House running against a favored incumbent.

Twelve years before the 1992 presidential election, Bill Clinton was defeated for reelection as Governor of a small state.

Trump's been consistently seen as a fringe political figure.

Ten years before the 2020 presidential election, Elizabeth Warren was an academic taken out of the running for being in charge of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau because of potential blowback.

We can't expect the nomination of a particular individual, let alone whether they'll win the final race.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 15 queries.