Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,090
Political Matrix E: -7.35, S: -6.26
|
|
« on: November 11, 2019, 04:08:40 PM » |
|
|
« edited: November 11, 2019, 04:13:50 PM by President Griffin »
|
I think we're coming close to the break-even point in general elections: where long-term outcomes in these contests will be reflective of gender (i.e. if a man and a woman are the two nominees, there is no handicap in who can win; female candidates have notably underperformed in federal contests by 1-2 points in the modern era). Of course, small sample sizes and all that. I wouldn't be surprised if we had 2 female Presidents (with 1 being a one-termer; women will likely continue to be held to a higher standard).
However, the GOP nominating a woman is practically out of the question right now, so maybe the chances are only like 1 in 4 for each future election based on today's trends. So seeing just 1 prior to 2050 is perfectly possible as well.
For us to get 2 female Presidents, we'd most likely need to see a strong trend of the GOP nominating men and the Democrats nominating women (not impossible).
|