By 2050, how many female presidents? (user search)
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  By 2050, how many female presidents? (search mode)
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Question: How many female presidents will the United States have had by 2050?
#1
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#2
1
 
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2
 
#4
3
 
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Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: By 2050, how many female presidents?  (Read 1445 times)
Adam Griffin
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E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: November 11, 2019, 04:08:40 PM »
« edited: November 11, 2019, 04:13:50 PM by President Griffin »

I think we're coming close to the break-even point in general elections: where long-term outcomes in these contests will be reflective of gender (i.e. if a man and a woman are the two nominees, there is no handicap in who can win; female candidates have notably underperformed in federal contests by 1-2 points in the modern era). Of course, small sample sizes and all that. I wouldn't be surprised if we had 2 female Presidents (with 1 being a one-termer; women will likely continue to be held to a higher standard).

However, the GOP nominating a woman is practically out of the question right now, so maybe the chances are only like 1 in 4 for each future election based on today's trends. So seeing just 1 prior to 2050 is perfectly possible as well.

For us to get 2 female Presidents, we'd most likely need to see a strong trend of the GOP nominating men and the Democrats nominating women (not impossible).
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