KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/StumboForKY/status/1273039087792844802?s=20

Damn, McGrath must be toxic to actual Kentuckians.

[S019]

Hopefully, if McGrath loses or has a close call, Democrats stop donating here, but given that their donations are to oppose McConnell and not support McGrath, it probably doesn't matter. McGrath has like a 0.5% chance of winning this seat, and Booker has a 0.1% chance, so McGrath is probably the better candidate, but if Booker winning causes people to stop donating here, it would be worth it.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1272991853932134400

I see McGrath went to the same seminar that Hickenlooper and Engel went to: "The basics in screwing things up a couple weeks before the primary".

[ltomlinson31]

Just looked at the endorsements for McGrath and Booker, and unless I'm completely missing something, McGrath has zero local endorsements. Everyone from Kentucky who has endorsed has endorsed Booker.

[new_patomic]

Just looked at the endorsements for McGrath and Booker, and unless I'm completely missing something, McGrath has zero local endorsements. Everyone from Kentucky who has endorsed has endorsed Booker.

She does have some support from local labor unions, if you want to count those.

But in terms of elected officials, yeah, looks like it.

I also don't think her website has anything about who has or hasn't endorsed her, which is extra funny.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am heartened to see KY Dems rally around a Black candidate who is qualified, capable, and on paper without any biases... the better candidate. Far too many primaries I have seen state parties (especially in states with KY's demographics) rally around inadequate white candidates based off of nothing but the fear that anything else would scare the electorate.

McGrath is a terrible candidate with putrid consultants.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1272879428205510656?s=20

She couldn't even acknowledge Breonna Taylor, a Kentuckian first responder murdered by the police while she was sleeping. SMH.

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1272912045990645761?s=20

[Epaminondas]

Conservative white woman notable for her (campaign for) U.S. House attempts to run for statewide office in a Southern state, polling frontrunner with notable support from out of state, only to be upset in the last few days by a young black left-wing elected official? That upstart candidate only close in his own internals, but with a dominating sense of momentum in the final days before the primary? Not going to draw out the analogy too far, but we have heard this song somewhere else a couple years ago.

Does that make Mike Broihier a younger Joe Biden? Very confused now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why does McGrath have so few in-state endorsements? I feel like that's the sort of situation you don't get unless you have an impressively toxic personality.

[ON Progressive]

Why does McGrath have so few in-state endorsements? I feel like that's the sort of situation you don't get unless you have an impressively toxic personality.

The gist of it really is that McGrath has never really been particularly a candidate that had any connections with the state party establishment, and indeed has always kinda crossed them.

Her 2018 House run actually kinda pissed off the local party folks for several reasons:
1) They were planning on running Lexington’s then-Mayor Jim Gray for that seat, so her jumping in kinda got them upset in the first place.
2) Her campaign gained traction on the back of a viral ad that was made by an out-of-state firm, and that ad meant she got a boatload of money from out-of-state support.
3) The general election campaign by her was functionally run by the DCCC, which meant the local party operatives were basically barred.

This Senate campaign is even worse on at least the latter two of those fronts. She has basically been running a national campaign (running ads in big media markets out of state, earned media mostly on major national cable news, donations almost entirely outside KY, etc.), and the DSCC is functionally running her campaign. Keep in mind the DSCC is even more heavy handed than the DCCC. And that is why the local endorsements for her are basically non-existent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayanna Pressley just endorsed Charles Booker for Senate, whom might replace Warren if she is selected Veep and Kennedy oust Markey

https://mobile.twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/1273252989130739715?s=21

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, this is good. First, McGrath used her national profile in '18 as an aesthetic lesbian to snuff out an actual LGBT candidate who won KY-6 just two years prior while running for Senate - who in my view, would have likely won the seat had he been the nominee, given actual '18 performance. Then, instead of using that as a launchpad to run again and potentially win, decides to launch her "I wrote Mitch McConnell a letter as a kid and I never got the reply I wanted" Senate bid using the classic DNC boilerplate consultant teams and strategy.

That Politico article shared several posts back? It can honestly be boiled down to two simple paragraphs that sum up these campaigns:

"I don't really know what position Amy McGrath takes because she goes back and forth on everything depending on what consultants seem to say,” Booker said in an interview. “I know that Kentuckians can smell BS from miles away.”

“I’m not, as Mr. Booker claims, 'a pro-Trump Democrat.' I’m pro-Kentucky and pro-America,” McGrath said, refuting her top opponent in a POLITICO interview after months of keeping her fire trained on McConnell.

How many thousands of dollars do you think the McGrath campaign spent on focus-grouping the generic "I'M PRO-[STATE], PRO-[COUNTRY]!" line?

At any rate, I've been on the anti-establishment side enough times to know that McGrath, her money, the Democratic establishment and the brainless Democratic primary voters who do whatever the f[inks]k the former tells them to do (especially post-Trump; thanks white suburbrons!) will likely swoop her across the finish line with a double-digit win. The one potential sign of this being winnable is the fact that so many prominent politicians both in-state and out-of-state are coming to Booker's side right now.

[Skye]

First, McGrath used her national profile in '18 as an aesthetic lesbian to snuff out an actual LGBT candidate

What?

[anthonyjg]

Why does McGrath have so few in-state endorsements? I feel like that's the sort of situation you don't get unless you have an impressively toxic personality.

She is what those who live outside of or have no connections to Kentucky think will beat McConnell

[Adam Griffin]

First, McGrath used her national profile in '18 as an aesthetic lesbian to snuff out an actual LGBT candidate

What?

Did I stutter?

Just in case you're legitimately asking/not familiar with the 2016 KY Senate GE or 2018 KY-6 primaries:
https://www.huffpostbrasil.com/entry/jim-gray-kentucky-congress_n_5a26a387e4b086e4e5046f25

https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Gray_(Kentucky)

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article188086754.html

As the first openly gay candidate to run for statewide office in Kentucky, Gray won about 51 percent of the vote in Central Kentucky’s 6th District during his failed 2016 bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points.

Yes: McGrath underperformed Gray by 5 points despite her enjoying a Democratic tsunami election (especially relative to the 2016 Kentucky climate that Gray faced).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If McConnell does the right thing and pass more stimulus checks, he will help his cause, but he blocks the stimulus checks, he will be hurt

[Oryxslayer]

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

[lfromnj]

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.

[Continential]

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

Jim Gray was the mayor of Lexington.

[Oryxslayer]

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.

Jim Gray was the mayor of Lexington.

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

[😥]

Hope Booker wins

[Pollster]

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

Not a perfect example, federal vs. state race. Jim Gray performing as well as he did in KY-06 (and he performed well) despite no aid from the national party and probably being hurt by the top of the ticket more than he was helped. No question he was formidable and an incredibly well-defined entity in the district.

McGrath also (in)famously refused to run negative ads against Barr, hard to imagine Gray doing the same.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Hope Booker wins

What happened to "all blue dog dems"?

[Oryxslayer]

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

Not a perfect example, federal vs. state race. Jim Gray performing as well as he did in KY-06 (and he performed well) despite no aid from the national party and probably being hurt by the top of the ticket more than he was helped. No question he was formidable and an incredibly well-defined entity in the district.

McGrath also (in)famously refused to run negative ads against Barr, hard to imagine Gray doing the same.

Yes it's not a perfect example, but its better than looking backwards with Rose-tinted glasses and imagining what might have been. The past is written, the ink is dry. The job now is to find future battles, and KY-Sen is not a battle worth fighting, so who cares who wins.

[Continential]

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.

Jim Gray was the mayor of Lexington.

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

The majority of the district is urban/suburban and there are two cities Frankfrot and Lexington. McGrath only won Fayette county 59-39

[Blair]

It's worth noting that Ben Chandler, the former D rep for KY-06, said that if McGrath couldn't win in 2018 then no-one else could.

I'm mostly always of the view that if you can't win the primary you can't complain about the result; funnily enough I just read that the DCCC endorsed Gray for the Primary. It's perfectly plausible to say that Gray could have won but I don't get why anyone thinks political campaigning is some sort of science where something is ordained to happen a certain way.

I funnily enough come on here to dunk on McGrath for not running in a much easier House seat; I read somewhere she could have gone for one in Illinois or Virginia.