KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm and ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm anf ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

[South Dakota Democrat]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm anf ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

Give him a break; he's not very smart.

[free my dawg]

Can't wait for the ****libs to burn money away by donating to her and Jaime Harrison while MJ Hegar and whatever B-listers in Iowa/NC struggle to fundraise.

[Politician]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm anf ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

Give him a break; he's not very smart.

What are you talking about, Democrats can win KY with Harris/Ryan as ticket, with Ryan's megacoattails from OH

[coloradocowboi]

I don't agree that this race is not winnable, but Amy McGrath isn't gonna win it if she couldn't manage in KY6 during a wave year. Plus this flip-flopping is a time-tested strategy to turn off voters. I don't see a path for her specifically.

What is Matt Jones doing? He would make this race far more competitive.

[lfromnj]

TBH Mcgrath will probably win Ky 06 against Mitch.

[Oryxslayer]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

[Pandaguineapig]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

ND and TN were a waste of money, but was TX? Yeah it was excessive, but O’Rourke came closer to winning than 3 of the 4 Democratic Senators that lost did. And he gave us a glimpse as to how a Democrat can win statewide sometime in the next decade when there previously wasn’t a template to use. Literally just add five points to Beto’s margins in the cities and suburbs and that’s a blue Texas. And his downballot coattails were huge in the legislature and at the county level.

[Pandaguineapig]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

ND and TN were a waste of money, but was TX? Yeah it was excessive, but O’Rourke came closer to winning than 3 of the 4 Democratic Senators that lost did. And he gave us a glimpse as to how a Democrat can win statewide sometime in the next decade when there previously wasn’t a template to use. Literally just add five points to Beto’s margins in the cities and suburbs and that’s a blue Texas. And his downballot coattails were huge in the legislature and at the county level.

Yes, but the countless millions raised went well beyond the point of diminishing returns

[free my dawg]

TX is an untapped gold mine of mobilizable voters. Money coming in there helps build an actual infrastructure. SC has very limited potential, but demographics are not on our side. Why money is going to go to Kentucky is beyond me.

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

This is the same party whose equivalent to the Koch Brothers is in the middle of a 9-figure, self-serving virtue signaling campaign and gave Jaime Harrison $1.5 million in a month because Lindsey Graham is a sycophant. Their financial priorities are heavily skewed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell needs to be defeated after what he sais about slavery reparations. McGrath isnt ALG. He exacerbated the racial tensions,  and Biden's segregationist additude, wasnt enough. McConnell exacerbated the racial tensions like Reverand Wright did, color KY, Atlas red or secular blue. Just like comment only helps Beshear,  not Bevin

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McConnell needs to be defeated after what he sais about slavery reparations. McGrath isnt ALG.

You’re right. ALG actually won an election statewide in KY before she ran against McConnell (with over 60% of the vote). The same can’t be said of McGrath

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was referring to the gaffe, when she said that she voted for Hilary, not Obama.

If Cornyn or McConnell goes down, I will be satisfied, they both voted for Alito and Kavanaugh, ones that never take from to time some Dem policies like Roberts have done

[Rookie Yinzer]

People are really about to waste millions on a rural, low educated, 90 percent white state while GA and TX sit on a treasure trove of affluent suburban white women, white progressives, Black, Asian, and Latino voters.

K.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R -> Safe R

Probably McGrath is a good fir for the state and she has certainly a good announcement video, but past elections in KY have lectured us that this is not winnable. I can tell you what will happen: Polls up to Oct 2020 will remain within single digits and parts of Atlas + Nate Silver will tell us how McConnell is vulnerable. During the last week, he'll expand his polling lead and on election day, he wins 59-39%.

Better put ressources into ME, NC, TX, GA and MT (with Bullock). CO is already lean/likely D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R -> Safe R

Probably McGrath is a good fir for the state and she has certainly a good announcement video, but past elections in KY have lectured us that this is not winnable. I can tell you what will happen: Polls up to Oct 2020 will remain within single digits and parts of Atlas + Nate Silver will tell us how McConnell is vulnerable. During the last week, he'll expand his polling lead and on election day, he wins 59-39%.

Better put ressources into ME, NC, TX, GA and MT (with Bullock). CO is already lean/likely D.

He is losing in the polls to McGrath, what I said was righr, he will lose

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's good to have a warm body in case Cocaine Mitch is caught diddling underage boys, but otherwise this is safe R.

[Frenchrepublican]

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm anf ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

Give him a break; he's not very smart.

What are you talking about, Democrats can win KY with Harris/Ryan as ticket, with Ryan's megacoattails from OH

Yeah but VA would vote Trump because Youngstown-Ryan is a poor fit for Fairfax

[Pericles]

Safe R, while McGrath probably does better than the Democratic presidential nominee, I can't see her overperforming by the tremendous amount needed to actually win the race, especially since that kind of split-ticket voting doesn't happen any more.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1148917914151600130

This is actually an impressive number.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1148917914151600130

This is actually an impressive number.

And I guess that 98% of this amount comes from outstate

The good thing is that with these crazy numbers neither Adkins nor Gray will jump in the race 

[Donerail]

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

[Pandaguineapig]

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

The problem for Democrats is that this race won't be competitive and will siphon money from left-wing idiots that could go to actual races