KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[MT Treasurer]

Easily one of the worst and most overrated Democrats out there, so I’m definitely looking foward to McConnell annihilating her:

https://twitter.com/Team_Mitch/status/1148554996037890048

[MT Treasurer]

I really love this quote : ''Yarmuth said it is a waste of time for Kentucky Democrats to court Trump voters, who delivered the president a 30 percentage point victory in 2016. He said the better pathway to defeating McConnell is running up huge margins in urban centers, such as his district of Louisville, and other Democratic strongholds such as Lexington.''

This strategy worked really well for Jim Gray.

Anyway, I think Rocky Adkins would have at least given McConnell a scare, but McGrath is going to do worse than ALG and Gray.

[MT Treasurer]

The fact that Amy McGrath is considered a "strong candidate" and McConnell is viewed as a "weak incumbent" by pundits shows you how meaningless, subjective, and utterly useless the candidate quality dichotomy (strong--weak, great--awful, good--bad) is. Just because he’s unpopular doesn’t mean that he’s an ineffective campaigner (far from it, actually).

I unironically believe that McConnell is a "stronger incumbent" than Gardner or Tillis despite being more unpopular. Shocker, I know.

[MT Treasurer]

So Beshear beat the least popular Republican governor in the country by 10K votes. Any one of these factors would erase that Democratic lead in this race:

- McGrath's missteps and awful campaign which is pretty clearly far inferior to the campaign Beshear ran
- McGrath's inability to capitalize on the popular Beshear family name
- this being a federal race and not a gubernatorial election
- the fact that this election will be held in a presidential year where weird off-year turnout dynamics (which clearly benefited Democrats this year) won’t be a factor (this also applies to AL-SEN)  
- McConnell being a far more competent candidate who not only clearly understands his state better than Matt Bevin but is also unlikely to be caught asleep at the wheel and tends to run scorched earth campaigns
- McConnell not being Matt Bevin

I’m not changing my rating.

[MT Treasurer]

I am begging Democrats to donate to races we can actually win.

Steve Bullock, Cal Cunningham, and Theresa Greenfield need the money so much more.

I don’t disagree with the overall point made in this thread, but I’m not sure what more money in Montana would achieve at this point — the entire campaign is bordering on oversaturation and turnout is already going to be extremely high.