will Morris County, NJ eventually go dem in a presidential election?

[freepcrusher]

I could see it. On one hand it seems like the type of place where you'd have a lot of republican parents with democrat voting kids. Otoh, that demographic may not be able to afford living there and might live in a cheap area of Queens or Brooklyn instead. It depends if the kids living there now end up being "failsons" or not.

[TML]

This county is rather affluent, which I think explains its Republican tradition. On the other hand, about 30% of this county is non-White, and over 70% have had some form of higher education. These two factors could pull this county into the D column soon.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Yeah, I think it could be the Gwinnett County of 2020 seeing as how Individual-1 is still loathed by the latte suburbanites. I could see Democrats eking out a ~1 point win there. "Time will tell, time will tell..."

[Senator Incitatus]

I expect it to in 2020 unless there is a strong liberal independent candidate. That's different from saying it will vote to the left of the country, though.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Wow, the county has voted Dem only three times since 1868: 1892,1912, and 1964.

[Devils30]

Dems won the congressional vote by a lot here in 2018 with Sherrill and Malinowski

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yes, it probably will next year.

[Smash255]

It trended almost 8.5 points Dem compared to the national average in 2016.  Likely doesn't match that trend in 2020, but still moves Democratic a bit compared to the national average.  As long as the Democratic candidate wins nationally by 2-3 points or so I see Morris flipping.

[Gracile]

It's highly likely to flip in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems won the congressional vote by a lot here in 2018 with Sherrill and Malinowski

That’s exclusively because of Sherrill’s pverlerformance. Malinowski lost Morris in 2018.

[Senator Incitatus]

Dems won the congressional vote by a lot here in 2018 with Sherrill and Malinowski

That’s exclusively because of Sherrill’s pverlerformance. Malinowski lost Morris in 2018.

Malinowski also represents the far more conservative portion of the county, centered on Mount Olive-Roxbury-Dover.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Definately--probably next year. I'm honestly surprised HRC didn't win it.

[Gracile]

Dems won the congressional vote by a lot here in 2018 with Sherrill and Malinowski

That’s exclusively because of Sherrill’s pverlerformance. Malinowski lost Morris in 2018.

Malinowski also represents the far more conservative portion of the county, centered on Mount Olive-Roxbury-Dover.

Plus Malinowski still increased the Democratic margin from 2016, although not by as much as Sherrill (he lost by 4.4% compared to Clinton's 9.1% loss and Lance's 2016 opponent's 16.8% loss). It seems a bit dishonest to pin it solely on Sherrill's overperformance, when much of it was to do with Malinowski having a more conservative part of the county that he still managed to perform reasonably well in.

[Frenchrepublican]

There are some good chances that it will flip next year. (even if I wouldn't bet my shirt on it). Tilt R for now

[freepcrusher]

I'd give dems a 2/3 to 3/4 chance of flipping it. Now krazen would always say that Rs have a solid floor of 40% in NJ and you would think a dem wouldn't win MoCo unless they were winning 60% statewide. But I feel that what is keeping R margins in NJ above 40% is Ocean and Monmouth counties which is NJ's equivalent of Volusia, Pasco, Hernando, Sumter counties. Plus Ocean has a lot of orthodox.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd give dems a 2/3 to 3/4 chance of flipping it. Now krazen would always say that Rs have a solid floor of 40% in NJ and you would think a dem wouldn't win MoCo unless they were winning 60% statewide. But I feel that what is keeping R margins in NJ above 40% is Ocean and Monmouth counties which is NJ's equivalent of Volusia, Pasco, Hernando, Sumter counties. Plus Ocean has a lot of orthodox.

Ocean probably, but Monmouth is nowhere near as Republican as any of those counties. It’s honestly more like Suffolk than anything else.