brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,726
Political Matrix E: -3.48, S: -3.30
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2019, 01:09:52 AM » |
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The key question is whether Hillary came into office with the 60-vote supermajority in the Senate. If she didn't, than she would've needed the support of moderate Republicans on every big vote. That probably prevents health care reform from happening, & means that she'll need to take a more moderate course throughout 2009 & 2010. I imagine the stimulus still gets passed, but it may take a bit longer &/or be a bit smaller. After that, I expect her next big item would be financial reform, which Rahm Emanuel actually advised Obama to deal with before healthcare for largely political reasons (it'd be seen as addressing the cause of the Great Recession, instead of what most voters saw as an unrelated issue). Finally, Clinton would probably support congressional passage of a transportation funding bill in 2009, which Obama's team didn't, as a way to garner some support from Republicans & Rust Belt Democrats. Ironically, this would probably lessen the 2010 midterm fallout, as the Republicans wouldn't be able to run against Obamacare & Cap-&-Trade (which would've probably never gotten off the ground since it would've had even less support in the Senate). I'd think that the Republicans would still take back the House (there having been too many Blue Dog pickups in 2006 & 2008) & several Senate seats due to the economy & the deficit. I think the Tea Party would still happen (after all, some reactionary conservative group would've had to have arised in the wake of a second Clinton presidency), though it'd have garnered less traction for the same reason, along with a number of others (Clinton would've still had a lot of residual support from WWC voters in 2008, & many of those voters had flipped to the Tea Party in 2010). This sets up Clinton with an easier job of governing up until 2012.
I think she'd go on to win against Romney in 2012 without a sweat, especially with the Tea Party-esque conservatives still dividing the GOP. Romney, having to pander to that audience, will drift to the right & make himself out to be a corporatist-capitalist vulture/robber baron, which would play into the Democrats' hand of tying him to the CEOs that played a part in the 2008 economic collapse & easily associating him with the Bush/Cheney years, especially after their endorsement of him.
As for 2014, I'd expect it to pretty much turn out the same as it did for Obama considering the 6-year itch.
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