Dem Primary Schedule, Ballot, and Delegate Thread (pg 13 - HI ballot)

[Torrain]

Gabbard, Bloomberg and Yang have filed for the Arkansas primary.

That leaves just Julian Castro and Wayne Messam (who also missed Alabama) off the ballot.

Source: https://www.ark.org/arelections/index.php

[Torrain]

It's odd that Yang didn't file for the Arkansas primary. I mean even Sestak did after all. Maybe the signature threshold was too high? Or the campaign just didn't realize that the filing deadline was so early? Seems like the YangGang is not very well organized in Arkansas at least. I know there is one female YangGanger living in Arkansas who is very dedicated, though she is originally from Kansas. She said in an interview that many Arkansas citizens she encounters with, especially in more rural areas, are still very racist.

Never fear, Yang is here

https://twitter.com/ARSecofState/status/1194282020568018944

[The Mikado]

One hour.

Will Castro file at 11:59 and confound all the people who say he's not going to make it like he did in Alabama Friday?

[Tender Branson]

Strange that Messam got ballot access in MI, but not in AL or AR ...

Not that any1 cares ...

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1194290756204281856

[The Mikado]

Strange that Messam got ballot access in MI, but not in AL or AR ...

Not that any1 cares ...

MI automatically adds anyone with significant media attention.

Messam proved that significant is low.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ARSecofState/status/1194307062097989634
Following his pattern from Alabama, Castro again files at the last minute.

I kept saying he'd make it.

[Mr. Morden]

Strange that Messam got ballot access in MI, but not in AL or AR ...

It's not strange since, as far as I can tell, in Michigan ballot placement is basically decided by the Secretary of State writing down everyone he/she thinks is a candidate based on media reports, and then asking the state party chairs if anyone is missing from the list.  It doesn't require any effort on Messam's part to get on the ballot there.

[Tender Branson]

Strange that Messam got ballot access in MI, but not in AL or AR ...

It's not strange since, as far as I can tell, in Michigan ballot placement is basically decided by the Secretary of State writing down everyone he/she thinks is a candidate based on media reports, and then asking the state party chairs if anyone is missing from the list.  It doesn't require any effort on Messam's part to get on the ballot there.

So, MI doesn't even have a filing fee or some sort of signature collection ?

[Mr. Morden]

Strange that Messam got ballot access in MI, but not in AL or AR ...

It's not strange since, as far as I can tell, in Michigan ballot placement is basically decided by the Secretary of State writing down everyone he/she thinks is a candidate based on media reports, and then asking the state party chairs if anyone is missing from the list.  It doesn't require any effort on Messam's part to get on the ballot there.

So, MI doesn't even have a filing fee or some sort of signature collection ?

I believe if you *don't* get included on the list compiled by the Secretary of State and party chairs, then you can still get added to the ballot by getting the required number of signatures (so de la Fuente can do that, since he's not on the list right now).  But if you are on that list, then you don't have to do anything.

[Mr. Morden]

Arkansas ballot:

https://ballot-access.org/2019/11/12/filing-closes-for-arkansas-presidential-primaries/

The Arkansas Republican presidential primary ballot with show President Donald Trump, Bill Weld, and Rocky De La Fuente.

The Arkansas Democratic presidential ballot will list 18 names: Michael Bennet, Joseph Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Mosie Boyd, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang.

As with Alabama, no Messam and no Walsh.

[Mr. Morden]

CA even has 3 different filing deadlines:

NYT says Nov. 26, my research says Dec. 6 and Ballotpedia says Dec. 13

Who is right ?

From these docs on the CA SoS's website:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov//statewide-elections/2020-primary/president-democratic.pdf
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov//statewide-elections/2020-primary/president-republican.pdf

For both parties, the candidates have to submit their filings by Nov. 26, then by Dec. 6 the Secretary of State announces who qualifies.  Candidates can still withdraw their names up until Dec. 26.

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg will not file to be on the New Hampshire ballot:

https://apnews.com/f4e282b393f940c9a7d70cf5218c75e8

Bloomberg’s team says the billionaire media mogul will not file in the state ahead of a Friday deadline to get on the ballot.

Bloomberg is still deciding whether to seek the Democratic nomination. If he does run, his advisers have said he would skip early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina and instead focus on the crush of states that vote on March 3 and beyond.

An adviser says Bloomberg doesn’t want to set any expectation that he will compete in New Hampshire and therefore won’t put his name on the ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1194785482267406336

[Torrain]

So, with one day to go, we nearly have a full slate of candidates in New Hampshire.

The only exceptions are Booker, Messam and Bloomberg.

• Bloomberg is abstaining (lol) from the primary,
• Messam probably can't get on the ballot now.
• Presumably Booker files tomorrow. He's just received an endorsement from a local state representative (Rep. Gerri Cannon), so maybe they'll pitch up and file together.

Also, Deval Patrick hasn't filed, but I'm not sure if he counts as a candidate yet.

[Gass3268]

So, with one day to go, we nearly have a full slate of candidates in New Hampshire.

The only exceptions are Booker, Messam and Bloomberg.

• Bloomberg is abstaining (lol) from the primary,
• Messam probably can't get on the ballot now.
• Presumably Booker files tomorrow. He's just received an endorsement from a local state representative (Rep. Gerri Cannon), so maybe they'll pitch up and file together.

Also, Deval Patrick hasn't filed, but I'm not sure if he counts as a candidate yet.

I've seen pictures of Patrick filling.

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh has filed in NH: https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/14/joe-walsh-files-to-challenge-trump-in-new-hampshire/

So on the GOP side, you'll have Trump, Walsh, Weld, and De la Fuente, as well as several nobodies who got on because ballot access is easy in NH. 

[Torrain]

I’m really hoping that if Messam fails to file in New Hampshire, that the media will follow the lead set by FiveThirtyEight, and drop him from their list of major candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

So, with one day to go, we nearly have a full slate of candidates in New Hampshire.

The only exceptions are Booker, Messam and Bloomberg.

• Bloomberg is abstaining (lol) from the primary,
• Messam probably can't get on the ballot now.
• Presumably Booker files tomorrow. He's just received an endorsement from a local state representative (Rep. Gerri Cannon), so maybe they'll pitch up and file together.

Also, Deval Patrick hasn't filed, but I'm not sure if he counts as a candidate yet.

Patrick filed yesterday:

https://twitter.com/NicoleSganga/status/1195016138608041984

And Booker filed this morning:

https://twitter.com/NicoleSganga/status/1195345748004605953

[Tender Branson]

Weird that Messam seems to miss NH, while several other nobodies (that are not even candidates on Wikipedia, or unknown local ones) managed to get on the ballot.

[Torrain]

Weird that Messam seems to miss NH, while several other nobodies (that are not even candidates on Wikipedia, or unknown local ones) managed to get on the ballot.

I'm getting the impression he's pretty much only here for the grift now. Even Joe Sestak, who's literally just hiking and chatting to locals, has at least made it onto the ballot.

[jimrtex]

Weird that Messam seems to miss NH, while several other nobodies (that are not even candidates on Wikipedia, or unknown local ones) managed to get on the ballot.

$1000.

An interesting consequence in 2020 is that qualifying in one state qualifies you in California.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1195461670832873473

[Tender Branson]

Pete Buttigieg was the 1st candidate to file for the SC primary today, the SCDP confirmed.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1195461670832873473

It'd be better if done cumulatively. Start off by pointing out out of the 3,979 pledged delegates, that there are 155 delegates from the early states (a little under 4%). Then add 1,358 for Super Tuesday for 1513. (38% chosen). etc.

Maybe I'll do this later. I have to go.