1976: Teddy goes for it
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:20:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1976: Teddy goes for it
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 1976: Teddy goes for it  (Read 1487 times)
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 17, 2019, 07:58:18 AM »
« edited: July 17, 2019, 10:06:26 AM by MillennialModerate »

I’m going to post a series of What If threads on my favorite political subject:

The Kennedy’s.

A lot of these topics have been beaten to death but I’m curious about what people really think would happen and why? Complete with maps and all the rest of it. I’m going to start with what I think is likely the biggest lost opportunity at the Presidential level and that’s not 1968. But 1976.

With the Republicans not that popular after the Watergate scandal, the year seemed ripe for a Democratic victory. However the electoral map looked far different in the 70’s. The west was still dominated by the GOP while the South was in a middle ground of still being dominated by Dems at the state and congressional level but had become somewhat tilt GOP in Presidential races. Carter being a Southern Gov is what many think flipped the south in ‘76.

So the obvious question: If Ted Kennedy had ran in 1976, what happens? He led most polls in ‘71 of Dems to challenge Nixon and appeared the only one who could beat him, but he choose not to run. Of course you have the Chappaquiddick incident. So what happens, how does he do?

Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2019, 10:06:05 AM »



363-175
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2019, 12:30:34 PM »

A Massachusetts liberal doing this well in the South? I think not. he'd do worse across the board than you have him doing. I'd say his best case would be winning a narrow victory like Carter did IRL, but with a very different map.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2019, 01:10:24 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2019, 01:18:09 PM by MillennialModerate »

A Massachusetts liberal doing this well in the South? I think not. he'd do worse across the board than you have him doing. I'd say his best case would be winning a narrow victory like Carter did IRL, but with a very different map.

Yeah I was torn about that, I just looked at the states that had big Democratic margins and kept them in the Dem column. The ones that were really close, I flipped. Also, remember there was a lot of disgust with Nixon/Watergate and then the pardon that followed it. Plus, JFK did well in the South. (I know JFK was a moderate and Teddy wasn’t but still)
Logged
Lechasseur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,757


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2019, 01:24:34 PM »

Ford would have won
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2019, 02:58:46 PM »

I think he could possibly win, but let's be real: Chappaquiddick destroyed any real chance of success.  Chappaquiddick would either lose Kennedy the nomination, or at the very least, lose him a lot of support. Not to mention, he's got other "issues" (girls & booze) that would hurt him as well, but just for the hell of it, let's say it's still doable.

On it's surface, 1976 was tailor-made for a Kennedy campaign (considering the bad economy, high inflation, Watergate, & Nixon's pardon), especially much moreso than him trying to pull off the unprecedented & defeat an incumbent president of his own party in 1980. However (& I know this may come off as some kind of heresy, but whatever), I wouldn't take for granted Kennedy winning against Ford. Kennedy's campaign skills were very uneven; for instance, his infamous flubbing of the Roger Mudd interview in 1979. At the same time, even with the Republicans' weaknesses in 1976, that doesn't necessarily make a return to the full-bore liberalism of a decade before politically popular. In 1976 as it played out, the public really did elect the candidate closest to where it happened to be on the ideological spectrum in Jimmy Carter, & just barely at that. So if Kennedy is the nominee, what is his strategy to win the South? What is his strategy with northern blue-collar whites? With victory at stake, would he be the type of figure who would moderate or mute some of his less popular stands on issues like busing, if doing so would secure victory?

But here's an idea: Kennedy rides a wave of nostalgia for Camelot to wrap up the Democratic nomination early in 1976. Because so many states have open primaries, this means a greater number of Democrats have nothing to do but vote in the Republican race come primary day. Because the ones motivated to do so are disproportionately conservative, they side with Reagan. This could very well be enough to tip the perilously close 1976 GOP nomination fight between Reagan & Ford to Reagan, making it Reagan vs. Kennedy in the general election. And keep in mind that this is 1976 Ronald "let's put the Social Security trust fund in the stock market" Reagan. So, at this point, the election becomes Kennedy's to lose, & barring any surprises, he probably wins.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2019, 03:10:12 PM »



Kennedy vs Reagan 1976

Kennedy wins 284-254, with a strong "moderate" performance (by John Anderson?) keeping a lot of states under 50%

California is the crucial state, which Reagan embarrassingly loses (this is the only election where California proves pivotal, in any other election if you flip CA the winner doesn't change)
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2019, 03:42:57 PM »

I don’t understand why you’re so sure.

He could lose the ENTIRE South and could still win just by flipping

* Iowa (Ford 49.5, Carter 48.5) • (12,500 votes)
* Oregon (Ford 47.8, Carter 48.6) • (2,000 votes)
* California (Ford 49.3, Carter 47.5)
* Illinois (Ford 50.1, Carter 48.1)
* New Jersey (Ford 50.1, Carter 47.9)

Plus, other close states that he’d likely win:

* Connecticut (Ford 52.1, Carter 46.9)
* Michigan (Ford 51.8, Carter 46.4)
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2019, 05:18:59 PM »

I think Ford holds Michigan if he's the Republican nominee. If Reagan is the nominee than Kennedy wins Michigan.
Logged
UnselfconsciousTeff
Rookie
**
Posts: 238
Egypt


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2019, 06:57:14 AM »



Kennedy vs Reagan 1976

Dont think Vermont a liberal republican state votes for Reagan

Kennedy wins 284-254, with a strong "moderate" performance (by John Anderson?) keeping a lot of states under 50%

California is the crucial state, which Reagan embarrassingly loses (this is the only election where California proves pivotal, in any other election if you flip CA the winner doesn't change)
Logged
RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
Atlas Politician
Sr. Member
*****
Posts: 2,270
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: -6.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2019, 04:29:24 PM »


334-204 Ted Kennedy win.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2019, 04:08:34 AM »

Logged
connally68
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2019, 09:55:47 AM »

The last time Ted Kennedy would have won was 1968
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,135
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2019, 10:26:16 AM »



Kennedy vs Reagan 1976

Kennedy wins 284-254, with a strong "moderate" performance (by John Anderson?) keeping a lot of states under 50%

California is the crucial state, which Reagan embarrassingly loses (this is the only election where California proves pivotal, in any other election if you flip CA the winner doesn't change)
Republicans win 1916 if they carry CA.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2019, 08:33:19 PM »



Kennedy vs Reagan 1976

Kennedy wins 284-254, with a strong "moderate" performance (by John Anderson?) keeping a lot of states under 50%

California is the crucial state, which Reagan embarrassingly loses (this is the only election where California proves pivotal, in any other election if you flip CA the winner doesn't change)
Republicans win 1916 if they carry CA.

It makes 1916 arguably one of the closest elections ever
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.