GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Bidenworth2020]

Collins would have been even worse. AT least we get another woman in the senate.

[The Mikado]

Could people please remember that she's running in a jungle primary?

She can never get to Doug Collins' right. If Trump endorses Collins, especially, it's very possible that she won't make it to the runoff. I'd still put her as an underdog for reelection due to the prospect of a Collins v. Dem runoff.

[QAnonKelly]

She and McSally can enjoy being short serving senators together. This is an absolutely idiotic pick by Kemp.

As long Trump wins GA again (and he is the favorite here), she will win.

Lol she’s not winning a primary

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kemp should have nominated Nathen Deal to be the interim senator and then let the voters decide in 2020 who the next senator of Georgia should be.

[DrScholl]

Trump is not the favorite in Georgia at this point (more than one poll suggests this). Anyway, Loeffler donated to Stabenow, so I'm guessing that will be a problem is some random crazy GOPer decided to run and make an issue out of her donations to Democrats.

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA. Last year republicans swept every statewide offices and exit polls gave him a 52/47 approval rate, and no it’s not a poll where 65% of the sample is composed of college educated voters which will change my opinions

There have been at least four polls showing Trump down in Georgia. A lot of things have happened since last year so old exit poll data is useless.

[MaxQue]

Kemp should have nominated Nathen Deal to be the interim senator and then let the voters decide in 2020 who the next senator of Georgia should be.

Would have been extremely dangerous, as it's a special election, which mean non-partisan jungle primary.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

The meltdown over this appointment from hardcore Trump cultists on Twitter is insane.

To be fair Lil Donnie's judgment may be better on this than Kemp's. Maybe this turns out to be a good pick. If it doesn't turn out to be a good pick then one could convincingly argue that Doug Collins was the way to go.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Trump's approval was 52/47 in the 2018 midterm exit polls in Georgia, unless he suffers some kind of approval rating collapse in 2020 relative to the 2018 midterms Trump will carry Georgia and Loeffler will win as a result, candidate quality doesn't really matter in a presidential year, its all going to be about how the presidential race goes in each state.

The 2018 electorate was more Republican, more white, and older than 2016. The fact that Kemp barely scraped through without a run off in that scenario should sound the alarms for Georgia GOP.

Lindy Miller and John Barrow got 48 percent (!) in a run off where black turnout plummeted. Put someone like Raphael Warnock against Loeffler and she is going to get pummeled.

Someone tells me you will be the one getting pummeled come 2020, sit down you socialist!

keep in mind he said "The 2018 electorate was more Republican, more white, and older than 2016. "

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/president
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

based on the data it wasn't more white. Racial percentages were practically the same. Apparently there were 2% more Republicans in 2018 and 2% fewer independents but who knows how much of that is attributable to sampling error. 

On the other hand, 2018 was 8% LESS rural and 5% MORE suburban and 4% MORE urban.  That suggests that the Democrats' base was more motivated in 2018 than Trumps' base, which....isn't surprising given that it was a midterm with a Republican in the White House.

Georgia is Lean R, maybe even Likely R. In a neutral environment you'd basically treat it as Republican as you'd treat Minnesota as Democrat, except that Georgia would be more GOP friendly in 2020 than Minnesota is DEM friendly.

[Frenchrepublican]

The meltdown over this appointment from hardcore Trump cultists on Twitter is insane.

To be fair Lil Donnie's judgment may be better on this than Kemp's. Maybe this turns out to be a good pick. If it doesn't turn out to be a good pick then one could convincingly argue that Doug Collins was the way to go.

Trump is very bad at ''electorability judgement'' ; had he not endorsed this moron of Kobach last year KS would have a republican governor

[OBD]

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/why-sally-yates-won-run-for-senate-georgia/jUwSjHRJZVjLJMV1DHm6iI/

Sally Yates is out, sadly. Be a shame if Loeffler wins by the default of having a crap opponent.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

[Frodo]

Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the soon to be vacant Senate seat. He reportedly will announce the appointment at a press conference early next week.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-gov-expected-tap-finance-exec-senate-next-week/qDibvzRR0L6VvyUmjnB1QJ/#

A very gutsy move on his part to appoint someone who hasn't (yet) kissed Trump's ring.   

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

[Skill and Chance]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

That is likely true, but Georgia is a special case because Trump can win 48/46, but Loeffler and Perdue can't.  If Trump gets a plurality win and they track him exactly, they are going to be thrown into January runoffs with likely sky high Dem turnout (assuming Trump just got reelected).

[MT Treasurer]

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

I don’t think Martha McSally got the memo.

(Also, what Skill and Chance said.)

[Pericles]

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

I don’t think Martha McSally got the memo.

(Also, what Skill and Chance said.)

If a presidential election had been held at the same time s the 2018 midterms Trump could easily have lost Arizona by a bigger margin than McSally.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

I don’t think Martha McSally got the memo.

(Also, what Skill and Chance said.)

If a presidential election had been held at the same time s the 2018 midterms Trump could easily have lost Arizona by a bigger margin than McSally.

Very unlikely, considering that his approval rating in AZ was 51/48 on election day (according to the exit polls) and McSally is polling worse than Trump in AZ right now.

There’s really no reason to believe that she’ll run ahead of Trump in 2020.

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

I don’t think Martha McSally got the memo.

(Also, what Skill and Chance said.)

If a presidential election had been held at the same time s the 2018 midterms Trump could easily have lost Arizona by a bigger margin than McSally.

Very unlikely, considering that his approval rating in AZ was 51/48 on election day (according to the exit polls) and McSally is polling worse than Trump in AZ right now.

There’s really no reason to believe that she’ll run ahead of Trump in 2020.

AZ is a special case, because democrats have a very strong candidate with Kelly (contrary to NC or GA).

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

In AZ I could see it happening, there are more potential Trump/Kelly voters that Biden/McSally voters.

[Pollster]

Jen Jordan starting to sound like a likely candidate

[Mr. Smith]

Jen Jordan starting to sound like a likely candidate

I'm more intrigued by the idea that those who lose the primary or run-off might switch seats.

Ossoff v. Loefller would certainly be interesting.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Loeffler’s presence Monday, sharing the stage with Warnock, was notable given that the pastor has quietly laid the groundwork to run against her in November. Warnock is said to have the support of former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, the most powerful force in Georgia Democratic politics, and is expected to announce his candidacy within days.

https://www.ajc.com/news/mlk-service-calls-for-unity-peace-amid-political-discord/QMdC4h0nKUFUSy4KnHJVIM/

Loeffler vs. Warnock is the 2020 race I didn't know I needed.

Abrams need to swiftly endorse him so national people start donating and we drown out the losers and nobodies running for this seat.

[Brittain33]

Her hair is very long.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1219722294341226496

[windjammer]

BK, Griff and the other GEORGIANS. How strong is he?