GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Bidenworth2020]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

Loeffler is weak, but Collins would do significantly worse than her in the Atlanta suburbs.

Call me crazy, but I think the "X will do better or worse in suburbs" ship has sailed. It is all about turning out your base. Ironically, Kemp did this pretty effectively in the 2018 race, where he almost matched Trump's total statewide and actually exceeded his raw vote totals in a lot of rural counties. I also believe that 2018 evidenced that Trump supporters in rural areas are more than willing to not turn out in these insane numbers for those who do not fully embrace him.

[Pollster]

It's looking like the jungle primary will stay.

We'll see. This is a battle that transcends party lines and this is part one of Kemp's GOP allies trying to stop the bill from reaching his desk. Collins wouldn't be entering if he didn't have votes counted ahead of time to at least have a reasonable shot at it.

In a cosmic sort of way, it would be hilarious if the Republicans gerrymandering their base into power winds up being what possibly costs them two Senate seats and maybe even control of the chamber.

[Inmate Trump]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

[QAnonKelly]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

[Gracile]

Cook has moved the Georgia Senate special election to Lean R (was Likely R), citing Collins’ and Warnock’s entrances into the race as a major factor-

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/georgia-senate/georgia-senate-special-election-moves-likely-lean-republican

[Inmate Trump]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

[MT Treasurer]

This race was never Likely R.

[Skill and Chance]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA.  I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win. 

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

[MT Treasurer]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA. I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win.  

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

Honestly, I think Barrow losing the runoff by less than 4 points even while losing Cobb and underperforming badly in Gwinnett, Newton, Henry, etc. pretty much shows that this is a thing of the past.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/dscc/status/1223305349475786752?s=20

#DROPOUTLIEBERMAN

[QAnonKelly]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

They're worried that Collins and Loeffler split the vote and two Ds get in. Also worried that whoever comes out on the other side of the runoff if it's D vs R has a lot less money in the bank and is damaged goods while Warnock gets a year long lead on running in the GE.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/dscc/status/1223305349475786752?s=20
#DROPOUTLIEBERMAN

What GA needs to do is send 2 Democrats to congress this year. Make it happen!

[Adam Griffin]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

Yes. Both sides have reason to fear the jungle primary, which is why there are groups on both sides of the aisle trying to end it (of course, there are groups on both sides supporting it as well). I'd argue Democrats have more to fear, however.

Even with Warnock, the field in a functional sense can't be cleared in a jungle primary and there's a high probability it won't be; all candidates appear on the same ballot, like what happened in the GA-6 April 2017 "primary". There are already multiple declared Democratic candidates in this race. While many will be sensible enough to drop out or avoid qualifying in the first place, not all will come to that conclusion. Even just one rando can siphon off 0.5-1% of the vote in a high-turnout presidential contest where there's a meaningful cohort of low-information voters showing up just for the presidency.  

A Democrat losing 0.5 points in a statewide race in GA at this point is exponentially more damaging than a Democrat losing that much in a statewide race elsewhere because of the runoff issue and how difficult it is to hit 50%+1. There's also the opportunity for the GOP to simply pay a few thousand dollars in candidate fees and get Aaaron Aaa or whomever to run as a Democrat (not sure about how/if alphabetization applies on jungle primary ballots, but the point still stands) even if all actual Democratic candidates end their campaigns.

[Skill and Chance]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

They're worried that Collins and Loeffler split the vote and two Ds get in. Also worried that whoever comes out on the other side of the runoff if it's D vs R has a lot less money in the bank and is damaged goods while Warnock gets a year long lead on running in the GE.

I think it's a very open question whether Warnock should hope for the Louisiana system to stay in effect or hope for a traditional primary.  For him to win a 1-on-1 (or a near 1-on-1) in November, which means either Trump has to really tank and lose GA or Collins has to really alienate Atlanta and then trail Trump significantly.

For him to win in January, Trump has to win the election and there has to be 2017 style disproportionate turnout from Dems who are very upset about that.  The only way this goes to a runoff with a Trump victory is if the Louisiana system stays in effect, but if it goes to a runoff after a Trump loss, even a loss in which Trump loses GA, he has essentially no chance in the runoff against either candidate.

Between the 2 GOP opponents, it's probably better for Warnock to face Loeffler in a runoff following a Trump victory, because she could struggle to rally GOP turnout, but it's clearly better for him to face Collins in November if there is a traditional primary.  

[Skill and Chance]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

Yes. Both sides have reason to fear the jungle primary, which is why there are groups on both sides of the aisle trying to end it (of course, there are groups on both sides supporting it as well). I'd argue Democrats have more to fear, however.

Even with Warnock, the field in a functional sense can't be cleared in a jungle primary and there's a high probability it won't be; all candidates appear on the same ballot, like what happened in the GA-6 April 2017 "primary". There are already multiple declared Democratic candidates in this race. While many will be sensible enough to drop out or avoid qualifying in the first place, not all will come to that conclusion. Even just one rando can siphon off 0.5-1% of the vote in a high-turnout presidential contest where there's a meaningful cohort of low-information voters showing up just for the presidency.  

A Democrat losing 0.5 points in a statewide race in GA at this point is exponentially more damaging than a Democrat losing that much in a statewide race elsewhere because of the runoff issue and how difficult it is to hit 50%+1. There's also the opportunity for the GOP to simply pay a few thousand dollars in candidate fees and get Aaaron Aaa or whomever to run as a Democrat (not sure about how/if alphabetization applies on jungle primary ballots, but the point still stands) even if all actual Democratic candidates end their campaigns.

I don't think there is really any hope of a Dem winning in November under the Louisiana rules with 2 high profile GOP opponents and one of them needing to court moderate Dems to cross over. 

Speaking of which, do you think a Loeffler vs. Collins January runoff is a serious risk?  I would think the Dem floor is well over 1/3rd of the vote?

[Adam Griffin]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA. I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win.  

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

Honestly, I think Barrow losing the runoff by less than 4 points even while losing Cobb and underperforming badly in Gwinnett, Newton, Henry, etc. pretty much shows that this is a thing of the past.

To be fair, Barrow and his strategy is also a thing of the past. The reason Barrow kept it so close (and let's not forget that Miller was actually a tad bit closer) in the runoff is because he did like 10-15 points better in his old stomping grounds than other candidates would (Miller did slightly better than Barrow most everywhere else). Generic Democrats can't expect that overperformance to offset losses elsewhere.

Gone are the days of us losing by 10+ points more in the runoff than in the general, sure, which is in part fueled by more "reliable" voters going R-to-D. However, Georgia Democrats are still heavily-reliant upon low-propensity voters and will in all likelihood continue to underperform in runoffs for some time barring unique or unusual circumstances. Relative to the GE, you can't have youth, Latino and Asian turnout drop like a rock and black turnout drop meaningfully in runoffs and expect to do better with the average Democratic candidate.

Speaking of which, do you think a Loeffler vs. Collins January runoff is a serious risk?  I would think the Dem floor is well over 1/3rd of the vote?

No chance of that under any realistic scenario I can imagine.

[Skill and Chance]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA. I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win.  

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

Honestly, I think Barrow losing the runoff by less than 4 points even while losing Cobb and underperforming badly in Gwinnett, Newton, Henry, etc. pretty much shows that this is a thing of the past.

What's so interesting about Georgia is that running on pure identity politics really is the best strategy for both sides now.  That's unusual, and not something that's common to all Sunbelt states (Garcia tanked while Sinema won in AZ, McCrory clearly went too far in NC).

[Frenchrepublican]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

Yeah some people on this forum (and almost every political pundits) don't understand how GA politics is working.
It's not about ''white, moderate, suburban soccer moms in Buckhead'', it's about running up the margins among your base. Loeffler would not do better than Collins just because she is white woman, that's a silly idea, just look at how much Karen Handel overperformed Kemp in her district (and she had the incumbency advantage). (Answer : she overperformed him by 1.5 point).

[DrScholl]

Collins and Loeffler are probably about evenly balanced now since Loeffler has taken a very socially conservative tone.

[Skill and Chance]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

Yeah some people on this forum (and almost every political pundits) don't understand how GA politics is working.
It's not about ''white, moderate, suburban soccer moms in Buckhead'', it's about running up the margins among your base. Loeffler would not do better than Collins just because she is white woman, that's a silly idea, just look at how much Karen Handel overperformed Kemp in her district (and she had the incumbency advantage). (Answer : she overperformed him by 1.5 point).

I get this.

There is every reason to for the GA GOP to want Collins in a January runoff for high base turnout.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/trump-hints-loeffler-collins-compromise-during-post-acquittal-speech/qMMJX6seUvuxFNJ6JSo5HJ/

Just what this race needs......

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1225497393963175938

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1225497393963175938

LOL ; but the people at the NRSC told us that Loeffler was a exceptional candidate

[MT Treasurer]

The people at the NRSC also thought that Luther Strange, Martha McSally, and Patrick Morrisey were formidable candidates and that MT-SEN/OH-SEN/WV-SEN shouldn’t be prioritized because you had "strong Democratic incumbents" running for reelection there and the Republican challengers in those states were supposedly infinitely weaker than strong incumbent Heller/Rosen infinitely weaker than Tester, Manchin, and Brown.

It’s safe to say that the people at the NRSC are some of the most inept morons in the entire country. If it wasn’t for those clowns, the Senate wouldn’t even be in play in 2020 because AL/WV would have never been lost. They don’t even deserve credit for Scott picking up FL-SEN.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1225497393963175938

how is this even legal