GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Calthrina950]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

An open seat is easier than defeating a well-funded incumbent.

Senate seats that are up at the same time rarely split. The last time that happened was in 1966 with Strom Thurmond(R) and Ernst Hollings(D), and the reason for the split had a lot to do with the fact that SC would send a D no matter what at the time....unless it was Thurmond.

It is not impossible for it to happen again, but for once, I will agree with you. And given that polarization has increased, and that Georgia is a notoriously inelastic state, I think that both seats are Lean Republican.

[Calthrina950]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

McBath might actually be a stronger candidate than Abrams would have been, and certainly stronger than any of the candidates who are running right now. But she will still have a steep hill to climb, and a great many obstacles to overcome. I'm still not convinced that Georgia is ready to vote Democratic for any kind of statewide race in 2020, though it is obviously not impossible. I think the breakthrough year for Democrats will be in either 2022 or 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

I'm still not sure 2020 will be the year that a breakthrough will occur though. It's very hard for me to see McBath winning a Senate race if Trump still carried the state.

[Calthrina950]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

Perhaps both election results were because of how GA is a notoriously inelastic state rather than Abrams being a bad candidate?

As I've said before, 2018 was a abnormally weak wave for Democrats at the gubernatorial and state legislative levels, to say nothing of the Senate. One or more of Abrams, Gillum, Cordray, or Hubbell should have won. None of them did. The only true triumphs Democrats had last year at the statewide level were defeating Scott Walker in Wisconsin and beating Kris Kobach in Kansas.

[Calthrina950]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

I'm still not sure 2020 will be the year that a breakthrough will occur though. It's very hard for me to see McBath winning a Senate race if Trump still carried the state.

It's also my opinion, she would lose by around 4

I think it's likely that she might come as close as Abrams did, and there's the possibility that she could win. But I see virtually no chance of her winning if both Trump and Perdue are carrying the state, particularly the former. Georgia has very limited ticket-splitting. The only exception to this recently was in 2016, when Johnny Isakson ran substantially ahead of Trump.

[Calthrina950]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

Perhaps both election results were because of how GA is a notoriously inelastic state rather than Abrams being a bad candidate?

As I've said before, 2018 was a abnormally weak wave for Democrats at the gubernatorial and state legislative levels, to say nothing of the Senate. One or more of Abrams, Gillum, Cordray, or Hubbell should have won. None of them did. The only true triumphs Democrats had last year at the statewide level were defeating Scott Walker in Wisconsin and beating Kris Kobach in Kansas.

Gotta love that level of projection.

I've been consistent on this since the election last November. Polarization limited the extent of the Democratic gains. Democrats did much, much better, at the state and gubernatorial level back in 2006.

[Calthrina950]

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

This poster and other Republicans spent the whole 2018 cycle saying Abrams was DOA. Now she blew a winnable race. LMAO. Ok. Anything to ignore the fact that GA will be Likely D sooner rather than later.

And if anyone won voters that otherwise vote R out of Abrams/Nunn/Carter it was Abrams. But keep going with your delusions.

If someone is delusionnal here, it's you. You are just a big moron who believes that Abrams is the rightful governor.

Besides I was not on atlas last year since I created my profile in january.

I suggest you not engage him. To converse with someone like him would be well beneath your time and effort.

[Calthrina950]

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

This poster and other Republicans spent the whole 2018 cycle saying Abrams was DOA. Now she blew a winnable race. LMAO. Ok. Anything to ignore the fact that GA will be Likely D sooner rather than later.

And if anyone won voters that otherwise vote R out of Abrams/Nunn/Carter it was Abrams. But keep going with your delusions.

If someone is delusionnal here, it's you. You are just a big moron who believes that Abrams is the rightful governor.

Besides I was not on atlas last year since I created my profile in january.

I suggest you not engage him. To converse with someone like him would be well beneath your time and effort.

Yeah, you're right

That's something which I've been adhering to since my return to this website. Not to converse with anyone on my ignore list, or who I've had conflict with before. It's all you can do, given those who inhabit here.

At any rate, we will have to wait and see what McBath does.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Florida was only cause Rubio wasnt expected to run again, and in Ohio  it was always viewed as Lean R.

Correct, and in hindsight, Ohio should have been rated Safe R, given that Portman absolutely demolished Strickland, running well ahead of Trump.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

"Continuing to struggle to find that last 2%"...?   So in a state that grew by 106k from 2017 to 2018, you think it's not possible to get 54k more votes?

Also,  wtf is "Continuing"?   The 2018 Gov election was the closest election in Georgia in more than a decade.   It was only last year.   There literally is no "continuing".    The close elections are here and now.

It's possible, but it's going to be a tough hurdle to clear. If Trump is narrowly winning reelection (and if he wins, it will be by a narrow margin), Georgia will not flip. And "close" doesn't constitute a victory.

[Calthrina950]

Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the soon to be vacant Senate seat. He reportedly will announce the appointment at a press conference early next week.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-gov-expected-tap-finance-exec-senate-next-week/qDibvzRR0L6VvyUmjnB1QJ/#

Loeffler would be the best option for the general election. However, Collins could very well mount a primary challenge out of spite, and given how "Trumpy" the Republican base has become, I wouldn't be surprised if he beat her. He would then put the seat in jeopardy in the general, as I believe that he would not appeal to the Atlanta suburbs effectively and would lose suburban voters who stuck with Kemp last year against Abrams.

[Calthrina950]

Collins will beat Loeffler. He has the support of the Republican base, will almost certainly receive Trump's endorsement, and is a known quantity, thanks to the prominence which he has gained from the impeachment hearings. However, I'm not so sure about his chances in the general. Georgia is still a Republican state (on balance, and in terms of actual partisan control of the government/congressional delegation), but it is now competitive, and I can't imagine Collins having any real appeal with moderate suburban voters. However, I do believe that if Perdue and Trump are carrying Georgia, then Collins will win as well.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins will beat Kelly Loeffler in the primary. I've said this before. And if he is the nominee, Georgia will probably be close to Tossup status.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins will beat Kelly Loeffler in the primary. I've said this before. And if he is the nominee, Georgia will probably be close to Tossup status.

1. There will be no Republican primary here. Collins and Loeffler will both be on the November ballot, along with all other candidates.
2. This race is a Tossup even if Loeffler advances to the runoff (and you could argue that she’d be easier to beat in a runoff than Collins).

What about that measure that was proceeding through the Georgia state legislature? I haven't heard anything more about it. Is it now dead?

As to your second point, I'm still not ready to declare Georgia a Tossup, though it is certainly close to being one. The state still has a slight Republican lean that has yet to be overcome, and I'm still not too sure that 2020 will be the year it happens.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins will beat Kelly Loeffler in the primary. I've said this before. And if he is the nominee, Georgia will probably be close to Tossup status.

1. There will be no Republican primary here. Collins and Loeffler will both be on the November ballot, along with all other candidates.
2. This race is a Tossup even if Loeffler advances to the runoff (and you could argue that she’d be easier to beat in a runoff than Collins).

What about that measure that was proceeding through the Georgia state legislature? I haven't heard anything more about it. Is it now dead?

As to your second point, I'm still not ready to declare Georgia a Tossup, though it is certainly close to being one. The state still has a slight Republican lean that has yet to be overcome, and I'm still not too sure that 2020 will be the year it happens.

The bill that's going through the house wouldn't take effect this year if it passes. I think it's for the 2022 cycle.

I see. Well, in that case, I'll say that Collins will finish ahead of Loeffler in the jungle primary, and it probably won't be that close. The runoff would be close to a Tossup, then.

[Calthrina950]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

Martha Coakley disagrees.

That's disingenuous, and I think you know it. If Martha Coakley was a credibly accused pedophile, she would have lost both her races by double digits. It really doesn't take much for a "moderate" Republican to win in a blue state--white liberals love them some RINOs. The Roy Moore saga was perhaps the one thing that could ever lead to a Democratic victory in Alabama.

I can't comment on Massachusetts, but Larry Hogan certainly did very well for a Republican among black voters in Maryland, in the 2018 gubernatorial election, and against a black Democrat (Ben Jealous), no less. His approvals have been very high among both white and black voters alike.

[Calthrina950]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

Martha Coakley disagrees.

That's disingenuous, and I think you know it. If Martha Coakley was a credibly accused pedophile, she would have lost both her races by double digits. It really doesn't take much for a "moderate" Republican to win in a blue state--white liberals love them some RINOs. The Roy Moore saga was perhaps the one thing that could ever lead to a Democratic victory in Alabama.

I can't comment on Massachusetts, but Larry Hogan certainly did very well for a Republican among black voters in Maryland, in the 2018 gubernatorial election, and against a black Democrat (Ben Jealous), no less. His approvals have been very high among both white and black voters alike.

I was being facetious, but that's not my point. My point is that Roy Moore is probably the single worst candidate nominated by a major party for a high profile winnable race in recent memory (yes, this includes Todd Akin and Martha Coakley), and that even despite all of that, he still almost won in Alabama thanks to the R label.

I really don't see how this is debatable. If you take an Akin prototype and run him in AL-Sen in 2017, he wins. If Republican Martha Coakley runs in Alabama Senate 2017, she wins.

/end thread derail

I see what you are saying. I'll agree with you that Moore is the worst candidate nominated by either party in recent years. Without him, that Senate seat would still be in Republican hands. Being an accused pedophile is certainly much worse than Akin's "legitimate rape" comments and Coakley's weaknesses as a candidate.

[Calthrina950]

I honestly think Lieberman may have a problem with Warnock being a reverend. Some Dems are annoyingly secular and this is coming from a very secular person.

Tarver is just a has been who will likely get under 3% of the vote.

It's as if he (and they) forget about Article VI, Clause III, of the Constitution, which states that "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States." Warnock being a reverend (and the pastor of MLK's church at that!) has no bearing on his political positions, or how he would conduct himself as a Senator. The Constitution forbids barring political candidates from running for, or holding public office on the basis of religious grounds, whether they are Mormon (such as Mitt Romney), an agnostic (such as Kyrsten Sinema), a Muslim (such as Illhan Omar), or an evangelical Christian (such as Mike Pence).

[Calthrina950]

Serious question, is Loeffler throwing this on purpose? Does she honestly think she's going to beat Warnock in January?

What does she think the political environment of 2 months of Lame Duck Trump is going to be like?

Democrats usually have lower turnout for runoffs, no?

Maybe, but suburban Georgians don't want to be represented by someone who claims to be the most conservative and most Trumpy Senator. Warnock's path to victory doesn't solely rely on a huge black turnout.

Georgia's shift to the left has been due to a combination of these factors: high black turnout paired with the Democratic trend among college-educated suburbanites. Stacey Abrams made massive gains in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area, and Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff will need to build on those gains to win the state. The polls indicate that they are doing so.

[Calthrina950]

You guys hold Loeffler to higher standards than you should be. Anyone claiming she was picked because of her qualifications is kidding themselves.

I agree. Wasn't she chosen because she was a donor and/or a personal friend of Governor Kemp's? Loeffler, like Trump, never held any political office prior to this one.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

[Calthrina950]

Doug Collins strikes a new blow against Kelly Loeffler in their race to the bottom right

https://twitter.com/CollinsforGA/status/1322286861965053952

(Also, the sheer irony of wearing the words 'Keep America Great', on the facemask you're wearing to protect yourself against a deadly virus raging through your country)

I can't agree more. It's astonishing that Trump supporters seem to think that we're better off than we were four years ago, at the end of Obama's Presidency. We weren't wearing masks four years ago. We didn't have such high unemployment figures, social distancing guidelines, quarantines, virtual learning, canceled events, tests, or any of that. We are worse off than we were four years ago.

It's easy to think that "America is Great" when you are mentally capable of ignoring the problems of the country to suit your worldview.

That much is true. And given that most of Trump's supporters are holding "China", the "Deep State", "Dr. Fauci", "Bill Gates", the "Democrats", the "CDC", or some combination of the above responsible for the pandemic, and not Trump himself, it isn't surprising. Many people have secluded themselves into echo chambers, and are unwilling to listen to anything which challenges their viewpoints.