GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hope he recovers. He’s the more tolerable of the Senators.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia has been a recruiting failure so far I'm not sure another seat opening up would be much of an opportunity.

Oh please. No one was even checking for Stacey Abrams before the last weeks of the election and she had an incredible performance. Low profile candidates can build a profile and an infrastructure to make the 2020 race competitive.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Scott Holcomb, you're up!

Holcomb is probably too white and male for Georgia Democrats.

White? x
Male? x
Heterosexual? x

We nominate a black woman for Governor once and now we don't want white male hetero candidates? K.

Would Abrams reconsider if there is a special in 2020?

She has explicitly stated that she wants to be an executive and feels she would best serve Georgians as the Governor rather than 1 out of 100 Senators voting for stuff that may meet resistance from the GA-GOP.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ideal scenario for Democrats is Terry switching to this seat so that the two can each tap into their own strengths to help the other win. Tomlinson focuses on turning out women and minorities downstate while Terry excites liberals in the Atlanta metro and suburbs.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1166732743562137603

Dang nabbit.

What did you expect? The grift stops for nothing

You’re so bitter. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ideal scenario for Democrats is Terry switching to this seat so that the two can each tap into their own strengths to help the other win. Tomlinson focuses on turning out women and minorities downstate while Terry excites liberals in the Atlanta metro and suburbs.

I’m also open to Lucy McBath pulling a Rosen. Her personal story would have mountains of credibility with the black community. I’d quit my job to work for her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ideal scenario for Democrats is Terry switching to this seat so that the two can each tap into their own strengths to help the other win. Tomlinson focuses on turning out women and minorities downstate while Terry excites liberals in the Atlanta metro and suburbs.

I’m also open to Lucy McBath pulling a Rosen. Her personal story would have mountains of credibility with the black community. I’d quit my job to work for her.

As a Georgia resident, do you think Lucy McBath can win? Because I think this is one of the best possible candidates

Yes. She's shown she can win moderate white women and GA-06 isn't nearly as black as the state as a whole. She can find the 54,000 votes Abrams lost by in Metro Atlanta alone. Non-white and youth turnout in 2018 still ran behind 2016 even with the spirited campaign Abrams ran.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

Dumb choice.

She’s not spectacular. I think the Dem we choose to coalesce around needs to be someone who can activate national grassroots in the event of a splintered GOP field. The only people who can do that are Abrams and McBath.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 

This is a dumb take. The state is getting less and less white. It could flip before ME and it does not mean it’s a Tsunami. You are perpetually stuck in 2004.

[Rookie Yinzer]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

Yessssssssssss!!!!!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

No it doesn't. Abrams also won GA-06 with an electorate that was less Democratic than 2016. The white voters in that district are done with the GOP. 

In the meantime, McBath is amazing at working suburban audiences, and black turnout will be huge with her on the ticket. She is an exceptional speaker with a powerful personal story. She will also raise a sh-t ton of money. She is the best alternative to Abrams. Meanwhile Tomlinson can work on getting out that South GA vote. And we will all be curbing voter suppression to the best of our abilities.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I'm all in for Tomlinson/McBath 2020.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

These people are already Republicans. Stop gaslighting Democrats into abandoning their core values. McBath can run and win statewide in Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

This poster and other Republicans spent the whole 2018 cycle saying Abrams was DOA. Now she blew a winnable race. LMAO. Ok. Anything to ignore the fact that GA will be Likely D sooner rather than later.

And if anyone won voters that otherwise vote R out of Abrams/Nunn/Carter it was Abrams. But keep going with your delusions.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Lol Ds aren't losing McBath's seat if she jumps in

Her leaving the seat may also be good incentive for other Ds to let her have the Senate race uncontested. Ossoff, Carter, Nunn, Jen Jordan, Scott Holcomb, and others are right in or near the 6th.

None of them could really compete with her fundraising or endorsements. Moms Demand and other gun control advocates would descend upon Georgia for her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

McBath was the only top tier recruit to me other than Abrams. We need a strong black candidate and I don't see that in any of the people in the state legislature or in prominent local positions. Guess we'll see! This changes nothing. Both races remain Lean R due to the run off rule- but could realistically go either way.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Former US Attorney Ed Tarver is reportedly considering. He's black, a former State Senator and a Army veteran. Also he's from outside the Atlanta metro area like Tomilson.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1176178177896570880

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Tarver

Any idea how old Tarver is?

According to the link below he was aged 50 when sworn in as a U.S. Attorney in December 2009:

https://www.augustachronicle.com/article/20091219/NEWS/312199973

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm repulsed by people who have no history of speaking out or advocating for anything jumping in talking about how fed up they are and how they need to change their communities. Yuck.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The heavyweight Dem candidates will jump in once it is known who gets the appointment. If it's Price, Kingston, Handel, etc. I expect a clown car.

Whom would you consider the heavyweights?  Thurmond?  Jordan?  Nunn?  Carter?  I've for some time thought Sherry Boston would be the best pick, but then I stumbled onto her support for Stacey Evans in the 2018 primary and I wonder if that might compromise her support in the state's Democratic establishment.

The Democratic establishment didn’t want Abrams. LOL. They were obviously dead wrong and ended up with egg on their faces but Boston wasn’t alone in underestimating Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams was the minority leader in the Georgia House for eight years.  She was the establishment during that time, and she is certainly the Georgia Democratic establishment now.

Yeah, sure, now after she proved her stock as a statewide candidate. But the majority of legislators that endorsed in that primary endorsed Evans. All former statewide Dems that endorsed, endorsed Evans. Atlanta Mayors Franklin, Kasim Reed, and Keisha Lance Bottoms supported Evans. She was disliked by the majority of the black caucus and her heir apparent Carolyn Hughley was denied the Minority Leader position when Abrams resigned.

She was the leader because no one else wanted to do it. Georgia Democrats were demoralized and defeated by the time she took that role.

Few electeds under the Gold Dome believed a black woman would perform well statewide in Georgia and defaulted to Evans.

I said all that to say- Boston's support for Evans will not hurt her. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the soon to be vacant Senate seat. He reportedly will announce the appointment at a press conference early next week.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-gov-expected-tap-finance-exec-senate-next-week/qDibvzRR0L6VvyUmjnB1QJ/#

Cool. It didn't matter which one he chose, they're both weak.

Atlanta suburbs are not ticking back to the GOP because he chose a woman. Especially when a lot of the change here has been because of non-white voters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Go Kemp! Even if he kinda expanded Medicaid, he's done a great job thus far, and this makes it even better.

He didn’t expand anything. How empty must your soul be to think that doing so is negative though.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump's approval was 52/47 in the 2018 midterm exit polls in Georgia, unless he suffers some kind of approval rating collapse in 2020 relative to the 2018 midterms Trump will carry Georgia and Loeffler will win as a result, candidate quality doesn't really matter in a presidential year, its all going to be about how the presidential race goes in each state.

The 2018 electorate was more Republican, more white, and older than 2016. The fact that Kemp barely scraped through without a run off in that scenario should sound the alarms for Georgia GOP.

Lindy Miller and John Barrow got 48 percent (!) in a run off where black turnout plummeted. Put someone like Raphael Warnock against Loeffler and she is going to get pummeled.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Loeffler’s presence Monday, sharing the stage with Warnock, was notable given that the pastor has quietly laid the groundwork to run against her in November. Warnock is said to have the support of former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, the most powerful force in Georgia Democratic politics, and is expected to announce his candidacy within days.

https://www.ajc.com/news/mlk-service-calls-for-unity-peace-amid-political-discord/QMdC4h0nKUFUSy4KnHJVIM/

Loeffler vs. Warnock is the 2020 race I didn't know I needed.

Abrams need to swiftly endorse him so national people start donating and we drown out the losers and nobodies running for this seat.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It seems that there is movement in Georgia legislature to make this a normal general election with partisan primaries, etc, instead of a November jungle primary.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/democratic-bid-alter-the-georgia-melee-for-senate-seat/p9hbVzZnekxZYeBVo5l3LJ/

Yes. Both sides want this for different reasons. I want Warnock as the sole D on the ballot. I would be livid if interlopers like Lieberman who has never done anything for GA Dems ed up this race.