GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

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Ideal scenario for Democrats is Terry switching to this seat so that the two can each tap into their own strengths to help the other win. Tomlinson focuses on turning out women and minorities downstate while Terry excites liberals in the Atlanta metro and suburbs.

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Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

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If McBath runs for Senate, Holcomb should run for GA-06.
Frankly, Jen Jordan should consider taking a stab at GA-11. It's a massive uphill climb, but she already represents ~20% of the seat and a strong run could position her well for a bluer seat in 2022 post-redistricting.

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I'm sure most higher-profile Dems are waiting to see who gets the appointment before jumping into this race, but if a trash candidate like Price could definitely bring in some Dem heavyweights.

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The heavyweight Dem candidates will jump in once it is known who gets the appointment. If it's Price, Kingston, Handel, etc. I expect a clown car.

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The heavyweight Dem candidates will jump in once it is known who gets the appointment. If it's Price, Kingston, Handel, etc. I expect a clown car.

Whom would you consider the heavyweights?  Thurmond?  Jordan?  Nunn?  Carter?  I've for some time thought Sherry Boston would be the best pick, but then I stumbled onto her support for Stacey Evans in the 2018 primary and I wonder if that might compromise her support in the state's Democratic establishment.

All good picks, and I wouldn’t even rule out Evans. I agree with you re: Boston, her potential could be massive.

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Trump is urging Kemp to appoint Doug Collins

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This has the potential to be a massive disaster. Loeffler will now have to vote to acquit Trump in order to hold off Collins - who can probably still defeat her regardless - weakening herself for the general. She will have to say ridiculous things and take ridiculous positions and votes that will alienate the exact voters she is being appointed to appeal to. Loeffler losing to Collins as an incumbent Senator will be yet another set of terrible optics for a party struggling to elect and appeal to women.

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$20 million will go a ways toward fending off Collins, but won't fix the problems she will cause for herself in the suburbs by standing by Trump.

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Jen Jordan starting to sound like a likely candidate

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Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

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Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

From what I’ve gathered, Tomlinson has been a pretty underwhelming candidate so far.

True, but she's basically just done a hard reset on her campaign. Hopefully, her new staff will serve her better than the old.

Yes, she was running a lackadaisical campaign but her new hires are incredibly promising. She ran superb races in Columbus in 2010 and 2014 and is a capable candidate. But the clock is ticking and its time to start taking the race seriously.

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Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

I was kind of hoping for a white army vet type against loeffler, since she probably has some serious weakness in rural areas that should not be left unexploited. Maybe Warnock's faith will bring in a few rural ancestral democrats. I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Tomlinson isn't an Atlanta politician - her base is Columbus where she is popular and was the first mayor to ever be reelected. Warnock meanwhile will send Atlanta turnout through the roof and could even outdo Abrams.

I suspect both will be able to hold the gains in GA6 and GA7, especially with Trump on the ballot and Perdue/Loeffler likely running in lockstep with him. Tomlinson looks like a good possibility to have high suburban appeal, but that's obviously not tested yet.

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Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins is perhaps the best possible microcosm of the Trump era.

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It's looking like the jungle primary will stay.

We'll see. This is a battle that transcends party lines and this is part one of Kemp's GOP allies trying to stop the bill from reaching his desk. Collins wouldn't be entering if he didn't have votes counted ahead of time to at least have a reasonable shot at it.

In a cosmic sort of way, it would be hilarious if the Republicans gerrymandering their base into power winds up being what possibly costs them two Senate seats and maybe even control of the chamber.

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Interesting move from Trump, do you think that Collins could be interested ?
https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/1230788087535611905?s=20

I think he's more interested in running for senate.

Having seen some private polling here, there is very little chance that Doug Collins will be persuaded out of this race.

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This is not only a terrible answer that does not excuse profiting off of a public health disaster, but also has the added spice of being both terribly out of touch/elitist and also like she makes no decision on her own and does not think for herself.

Amazing that she is willing to dump bottomless money on a pointless Senate campaign but not on a decent crisis communication strategist, especially given the threat this poses to both her and her husband's careers.

Loeffler is a disaster and this saga is an incredibly bad look for Brian Kemp.

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From Politico, you can't make this up:

Loeffler is kicking off a massive ad campaign that promotes her response to the coronavirus pandemic...The ad also leans into her personal wealth, highlighting the fact she gave $1 million to a local hospital and that she flew Georgians home on her private plane.

Extremely relatable.

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Considering that the article goes into detail about how top Republicans basically told her to drop out, I'd say that headline is almost absurdly kind to her.

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Loeffler vows she won't drop out

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Warnock raised 1,5 million in two months and had 1,2 on hand, compared to Lieberman who raised 300 thousand and had 267 thousand on hand. So at least on that aspect he is by far the best Dem.

And yet, he’s still stuck in mid-to-upper single-digits which is good for fourth place.

That's because Lieberman had a significant head start and Warnock didn't have the chance to campaign due to the virus.

Warnock is doing exactly what he should be - loading up his warchest while letting the Democrats who will actually be on a ballot in June take up the media and voters' attention for now. His campaign strategy will likely be impacted by who the nominee for the other seat is. Its important for him to be doing this and doesn't make him a bad candidate.

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If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The candidate who has $1 million more cash on hand, endorsed by the largest vote getting Democrat in the state’s history, and to be frank- the candidate who is Black in a state where 2/3 of the votes Democrats will get in November and a run off will be Black needs to drop out because of some polls six months out when NO ONE has been campaigning? Nah.

Agreed. Also....in what world is Ossoff better than Warnock?

The real world

Did Warnock cut you off on the highway or something?

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Maybe someone can explain what I’m missing here?

It's been explained numerous times on this board within the last 48 hours alone why he's the strongest Dem in the special election field, from both of public and behind-the-scenes perspective.

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Ossoff and Warnock are the best choices in their respective primaries and it's not even close. They balance one another out very well.

Outside of their races obviously being different, I don't see this. Both are male candidates based in the Atlanta metro who don't bring actual governing experience to the ticket.

I've made it clear on this forum I think Tomlinson is far and away the better candidate for the regularly scheduled race. It's not because I trivially or superficially like her more.

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https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1271230900907450369?s=21