GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[SnowLabrador]

Warnock is the best candidate we could get short of Stacey Abrams. I'm skeptical that Georgia can flip in a Presidential year, but we'll see.

[SnowLabrador]

However, I'm not so sure about his chances in the general. Georgia is still a Republican state (on balance, and in terms of actual partisan control of the government/congressional delegation), but it is now competitive, and I can't imagine Collins having any real appeal with moderate suburban voters. However, I do believe that if Perdue and Trump are carrying Georgia, then Collins will win as well.

This race (almost certainly) will go to a runoff between the top 2 finishers, regardless of party, in January. The jungle primary coincides with the November/general election. I don't think this necessarily changes much, if anything, about your analysis, which I agree with, other than the mechanics, plus the increased likelihood, I would think, that the Republican would win the January runoff, because of the way turnout works in Georgia.

There likely won't be a jungle primary

I thought Kemp was going to veto the change?

[SnowLabrador]

Good. Other than Abrams, Warnock is probably the best candidate we could have gotten.

[SnowLabrador]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

Collins would be toxic in the suburbs.

Kemp was supposed to be too.