GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Frenchrepublican]

Georgia has been a recruiting failure so far I'm not sure another seat opening up would be much of an opportunity.

Oh please. No one was even checking for Stacey Abrams before the last weeks of the election and she had an incredible performance. Low profile candidates can build a profile and an infrastructure to make the 2020 race competitive.

LOL, most political ''experts'' had moved the race to ''tossup'' by october 2018

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R

I don’t think that McBath would be a such a strong candidate. GA6th is obviously very different from the rest of the state

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R

I don’t think that McBath would be a such a strong candidate. GA6th is obviously very different from the rest of the state

Yeah, PVI of Georgia is R+5, while GA-06 is R+8

When a district swings from Romney+22 to Trump+1 PVI is useless 

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1166812835265044481

If true, does this signal the guy maybe just a placeholder as opposed to someone planned to defend the seat as an incumbent.

When would this election be? If it is a special election rather than a regular 2020 election oh, wouldn't that significantly improve Republican chances considering the drop off and turn out Democrats will suffer?

It will be a jungle primary coincident with the regular November general election.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held in January 2021.

It will be fun if control of the Senate hinges on a Georgia runoff, or maybe even two Georgia runoffs.

I doubt it. Maine and NC would flip before GA.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 
 

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Where did I say that GA is safe R ? Where did I say that VA and OH are toss-ups ?
VA is safe D and OH is likely R. GA is more complicated, I expect the race to be close but you don’t have a lot of swing voters thus the state is on the border between lean and likely R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 

This is a dumb take. The state is getting less and less white. It could flip before ME and it does not mean it’s a Tsunami. You are perpetually stuck in 2004.

Maybe I’m stuck in 2004, but you you’re already in 2030.
Yeah, GA is becoming more diverse but until proven otherwise GA is still far to the right of Maine (see 2012 Pres / 2014 GOV / 2016 Pres / 2018 GOV).

[Frenchrepublican]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

[Frenchrepublican]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

[Frenchrepublican]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

I'm still not sure 2020 will be the year that a breakthrough will occur though. It's very hard for me to see McBath winning a Senate race if Trump still carried the state.

It's also my opinion, she would lose by around 4

[Frenchrepublican]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

Perhaps both election results were because of how GA is a notoriously inelastic state rather than Abrams being a bad candidate?

Sure, GA is not MN nor NH, it's far less elastic, but Carter and Nunn were clearly able to gain the votes of people who otherwise voted R, it's just a fact.

[Frenchrepublican]

Pulling a Jacky Rosen actually isn't a bad idea. McBath represents a swing district so she has already managed to win voters that are necessary to win statewide and she can easily raise money. GA-6 is probably not going to get anymore favorable to Republicans so Democrats have a good chance at maintaining it. An open seat and only needing to find about 55-60k votes to win the race makes this a prime opportunity that doesn't come up all the time. McBath is wise to take it.

Comapring NV and GA is like comparing oranges and apples

[Frenchrepublican]

Pulling a Jacky Rosen actually isn't a bad idea. McBath represents a swing district so she has already managed to win voters that are necessary to win statewide and she can easily raise money. GA-6 is probably not going to get anymore favorable to Republicans so Democrats have a good chance at maintaining it. An open seat and only needing to find about 55-60k votes to win the race makes this a prime opportunity that doesn't come up all the time. McBath is wise to take it.

Comapring NV and GA is like comparing oranges and apples

Considering that you can't spell comparing I'm not about to be chastised by you.

What a powerful counterargument.

[Frenchrepublican]

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

This poster and other Republicans spent the whole 2018 cycle saying Abrams was DOA. Now she blew a winnable race. LMAO. Ok. Anything to ignore the fact that GA will be Likely D sooner rather than later.

And if anyone won voters that otherwise vote R out of Abrams/Nunn/Carter it was Abrams. But keep going with your delusions.

If someone is delusionnal here, it's you. You are just a big moron who believes that Abrams is the rightful governor.

Besides I was not on atlas last year since I created my profile in january.

[Frenchrepublican]

Pulling a Jacky Rosen actually isn't a bad idea. McBath represents a swing district so she has already managed to win voters that are necessary to win statewide and she can easily raise money. GA-6 is probably not going to get anymore favorable to Republicans so Democrats have a good chance at maintaining it. An open seat and only needing to find about 55-60k votes to win the race makes this a prime opportunity that doesn't come up all the time. McBath is wise to take it.

Comapring NV and GA is like comparing oranges and apples

Considering that you can't spell comparing I'm not about to be chastised by you.

What a powerful counterargument.

I never said Nevada and Georgia were exactly the same, but you knew that. My point was that a freshman representative running for the Senate isn't always a bad idea especially when said representative represents a swing district.

You all want to keep ignoring that every single statewide race was decided within single digits last year. The votes to make up that deficit can be made up by registering new voters. Georgia is clearly not the same state it was 10 or even 5 years ago.

Sure, GA is becoming more D friendly over the years, but McBath (contrary to Rosen) would be a significant underdog.

[Frenchrepublican]

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

This poster and other Republicans spent the whole 2018 cycle saying Abrams was DOA. Now she blew a winnable race. LMAO. Ok. Anything to ignore the fact that GA will be Likely D sooner rather than later.

And if anyone won voters that otherwise vote R out of Abrams/Nunn/Carter it was Abrams. But keep going with your delusions.

If someone is delusionnal here, it's you. You are just a big moron who believes that Abrams is the rightful governor.

Besides I was not on atlas last year since I created my profile in january.

I suggest you not engage him. To converse with someone like him would be well beneath your time and effort.

Yeah, you're right

[Frenchrepublican]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

You’re talking to a guy who thinks that Trump will lose TX, it’s pretty hard to reason this dude.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not really surprising, McBath is the favourite in GA-6 which will almost certainly flip at the presidential level from Trump 2016 to D, it would have been stupid for her to run statewide.

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump's approval was 52/47 in the 2018 midterm exit polls in Georgia, unless he suffers some kind of approval rating collapse in 2020 relative to the 2018 midterms Trump will carry Georgia and Loeffler will win as a result, candidate quality doesn't really matter in a presidential year, its all going to be about how the presidential race goes in each state.

So, you say that Susan Collins will lose in 2020?

Maine (and New-England in general) is far more elastic than Georgia

[Frenchrepublican]

She and McSally can enjoy being short serving senators together. This is an absolutely idiotic pick by Kemp.

As long Trump wins GA again (and he is the favorite here), she will win.

[Frenchrepublican]

She and McSally can enjoy being short serving senators together. This is an absolutely idiotic pick by Kemp.

As long Trump wins GA again (and he is the favorite here), she will win.

What if she doesn’t make it through the runoff?

Well, it’s a possibility. But frankly what’s the rational for Collins to run against her ? He would have to give up a safe seat where he is entrenched for a though race he is not sure to win, he would face a big money gap.... It would be a suicide mission

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump is not the favorite in Georgia at this point (more than one poll suggests this). Anyway, Loeffler donated to Stabenow, so I'm guessing that will be a problem is some random crazy GOPer decided to run and make an issue out of her donations to Democrats.

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA. Last year republicans swept every statewide offices and exit polls gave him a 52/47 approval rate, and no it’s not a poll where 65% of the sample is composed of college educated voters which will change my opinion

[Frenchrepublican]

The meltdown over this appointment from hardcore Trump cultists on Twitter is insane.

To be fair Lil Donnie's judgment may be better on this than Kemp's. Maybe this turns out to be a good pick. If it doesn't turn out to be a good pick then one could convincingly argue that Doug Collins was the way to go.

Trump is very bad at ''electorability judgement'' ; had he not endorsed this moron of Kobach last year KS would have a republican governor

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

I don’t think Martha McSally got the memo.

(Also, what Skill and Chance said.)

If a presidential election had been held at the same time s the 2018 midterms Trump could easily have lost Arizona by a bigger margin than McSally.

Very unlikely, considering that his approval rating in AZ was 51/48 on election day (according to the exit polls) and McSally is polling worse than Trump in AZ right now.

There’s really no reason to believe that she’ll run ahead of Trump in 2020.

AZ is a special case, because democrats have a very strong candidate with Kelly (contrary to NC or GA).

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

In AZ I could see it happening, there are more potential Trump/Kelly voters that Biden/McSally voters.