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pantsaregood
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« on: July 18, 2019, 04:32:34 pm »

Since 2008, NC has been close. Republicans have, more often than not, held a slight advantage. It has (to my knowledge) trended D every cycle since 2004, as well.

With this in mind, is NC destined to become the next VA?

If Trump were to win WI and lose NC in 2020, would you be surprised?
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2019, 09:44:53 pm »

As of now, North Carolina is slightly right of the center. I see that margin slowly increasing over time.
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AN63093
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2019, 10:15:47 am »
« Edited: July 19, 2019, 10:20:39 am by AN63093 »

I don't know if NC is destined to become the next VA.  I'd say GA is the more likely candidate for that.

NC is going to be hard to predict going forward.  Yes, it did trend D, but it swung R and the D trend was only 0.15%.  I'm a big believer in trends, but it's really hard to extrapolate much from a .15% trend.. that amount, while not wholly irrelevant, is pretty insignificant and can be explained by a lot of factors (including just random variance).

Dems are maxed out in places like Durham, Orange, Buncombe.  Clinton was hitting almost the exact same percentages in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area.  The brightest spot for Dems might be Wake, which a) trended D, b) had higher turnout, and c) has high population growth.  But a few things on that- first, the growth could be slowing.. while it's still pretty high, the days of 40%+ growth are probably over (at least for now).  Second, even with higher turnout, it was not enough to flip the state.  And third, and perhaps most importantly, Clinton is still hitting about the same % (although Trump had a drop off from Romney).. this is suggesting that unlike a place like NoVA, the growth there is different and doesn't consist of mostly liberals (although obviously they will be a large portion).

The same dynamic is at work in Mecklenburg- a D trend, increased turnout and high growth.. but also growth that is plateauing, turnout not enough to flip the state, and Clinton's % is nearly the same as 2012.  And like Wake, Trump had drop off, but a cursory look at the numbers reveals they mostly went to Johnson.  So overall, even with growth, the Charlotte area is relatively stable.

So it's just too early to tell at this point.  While NC is growing, it could be growing more like SC than like GA, in which case, no, it won't be the new VA.  Or it could.  We just have to wait and see.. not much we can predict from the data right now.

But if I had to guess, I would say it's more likely that NC remains a 'battle of inches' state, sorta like PA or FL (or how OH used to be), etc.
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pantsaregood
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2019, 03:52:44 pm »

As of now, North Carolina is slightly right of the center. I see that margin slowly increasing over time.

Any specific reason? Young voters in NC aren't really trending R.
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2019, 04:27:38 pm »

As of now, North Carolina is slightly right of the center. I see that margin slowly increasing over time.

Any specific reason? Young voters in NC aren't really trending R.

Many Republicans from bluer states are moving to North Carolina.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2019, 07:18:29 pm »

Probably will remain a swing state for some time to come.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2019, 03:04:01 pm »

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2019, 07:33:05 am »

Since 2008, NC has been close. Republicans have, more often than not, held a slight advantage. It has (to my knowledge) trended D every cycle since 2004, as well.

With this in mind, is NC destined to become the next VA? Perhaps, along with GA.

If Trump were to win WI and lose NC in 2020, would you be surprised? Not at all.
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gracile
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2019, 11:20:26 am »

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.

I agree with this. NC will probably end up as a much close, swingy state that tilts ever so slightly more Republican than the nation.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2019, 12:52:24 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2019, 12:55:34 pm by Edgar Suit Larry »

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.

I agree with this. NC will probably end up as a much close, swingy state that tilts ever so slightly more Republican than the nation.

Could any other state join this "Tilt R" column of states and voters that usually vote Republican but can be persuaded under unique circumstances. Basically the reason why every election in the last 30 years has either been a heartbreaker or a non-quite-a-landslide for Democrats.

I imagine these people are your typical 45 year old suburban white people who did well in college but have their degree in something somewhat easy from a school that is somewhat easy to get in. Most of them have boring jobs  in low rise office parks with good but not great pay. Maybe 75000 a year. They probably have someone at home who probably takes care of the place but probably brings in like 30000 or the side.  You know. The type of people who claim not to have serious problems with women's rights or gay rights but probably felt "taken advantage of" by Obamacare but eventually got used to it. They probably are open to some of Trump's ideas on immigration, but not trade. Most of them will say they "disapprove" of Trump but unless the Democrats are winning, basically all of them will hold their nose for him.

In states like Colorado or Virginia, they probably kept voting for Hillary and will never vote for Trump but many of them still identify as Republicans and Independents.

They are the reason that if an election is decided by less than 3%, the Republicans will win.
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Wazza
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2019, 01:08:37 pm »

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.

I agree with this. NC will probably end up as a much close, swingy state that tilts ever so slightly more Republican than the nation.

Could any other state join this "Tilt R" column of states and voters that usually vote Republican but can be persuaded under unique circumstances. Basically the reason why every election in the last 30 years has either been a heartbreaker or a non-quite-a-landslide for Democrats.

I imagine these people are your typical 45 year old suburban white people who did well in college but have their degree in something somewhat easy from a school that is somewhat easy to get in. Most of them have boring jobs  in low rise office parks with good but not great pay. Maybe 75000 a year. They probably have someone at home who probably takes care of the place but probably brings in like 30000 or the side.  You know. The type of people who claim not to have serious problems with women's rights or gay rights but probably felt "taken advantage of" by Obamacare but eventually got used to it. They probably are open to some of Trump's ideas on immigration, but not trade. Most of them will say they "disapprove" of Trump but unless the Democrats are winning, basically all of them will hold their nose for him.

In states like Colorado or Virginia, they probably kept voting for Hillary and will never vote for Trump but many of them still identify as Republicans and Independents.

They are the reason that if an election is decided by less than 3%, the Republicans will win.

Your scorn is showing...
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2019, 03:21:20 pm »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2019, 07:06:03 pm »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

I guess that why Texas might be a bit of stretch. Then again, its a really big state with really big cities and several mid-sized ones. California would be any example of that. Arizona is a place where Democrats should already be doing better in but there could have been why they were struggling but doing better now. Indianapolis is a state that HATES democrats, too but then again, I've been through Indianapolis and its much smaller than the census appears to apply.

My guess that besides the urban/liberal composition would be how much of the areas are suburban and how liberal/conservative the rural and urban areas really are.

In Oklahoma, for example, the rural areas are really Republican and the cities are just sorta Republican. In Florida, the cities are just sorta Democratic and the rural areas are really Republican. In the biggest western states and the northeastern ones, it appears to be the other way around.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2019, 07:08:04 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2019, 07:13:45 pm by heatcharger »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

Thereís something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2019, 09:02:01 pm »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

Thereís something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2019, 10:28:25 pm »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

Thereís something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.

This ainít it chief.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2019, 07:20:26 am »

From a PVI perspective, North Carolina had one giant lurch left in 2008, but had negligable trends in 2012 and 2016.  I think it seems pretty stable as a pink state right now, especially since 2016 exit polls showed that recent transplants are voting more like Native North Carolinians than the previous wave of transplants were (likely in part due to retirees).
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AN63093
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2019, 11:46:25 am »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

Thereís something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.

This ainít it chief.

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2019, 01:16:18 pm »

Probably will remain a swing state for some time to come.
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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2019, 10:10:24 pm »

I would just point out NC dem trend was smaller in 2004-2008 than 2000-2004, in 2000 NC voted R+13.3 relative to the nation, in 2004 it was R+9.9, it trended D+3.4 in 2000-2004, from 2004-2008 it went from R+9.9 to R+6.9 or a D+3 trend.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2019, 10:16:55 am »

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

Um, actually, Young Republican stated that Virginia is a state with a giant metropolis. The population density of Arlington and Alexandria does nothing to prove that. I would also contest that Washington is a giant metropolis as America's 20th largest city, but also, it is literally not in Virginia.

The largest city in Virginia is Virginia Beach, clocking in at 44th in America's largest cities. The next largest cities in Virginia are Norfolk (91st), Chesapeake (92nd), and Richmond (98th). These are all at or larger in population than either Arlington or Alexandria!

And Fairfax County is not a metropolis, don't kid yourself. The more important point is that the combined population of NOVA (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) is 2.4 million. This is about 29% of the state's population. Meanwhile, the Atlanta metro population (as defined  is 5.9 million, about 57% of the state's population.

Quote
VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas...

Ironically, this is actually closer to the truth than the idea that Virginia has a giant metropolis!
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2019, 10:30:51 am »

I would just point out NC dem trend was smaller in 2004-2008 than 2000-2004, in 2000 NC voted R+13.3 relative to the nation, in 2004 it was R+9.9, it trended D+3.4 in 2000-2004, from 2004-2008 it went from R+9.9 to R+6.9 or a D+3 trend.
Well Kerry's running mate was a Senator from NC.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2019, 10:45:45 pm »

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

This, although I do think it's more plausible that Dems could ultimately win the battle in NC than in FL.  But if that does happen, it would only be a D+1 or D+2 state, with no prospect of turning into a VA/CO.

The AZ, GA, and TX (1-2 cycles later) GOP on the other hand are like the AR/TN/KY/WV Dems circa 2000 right now. 
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AN63093
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2019, 04:37:54 pm »
« Edited: July 28, 2019, 04:43:49 pm by AN63093 »

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

Um, actually, Young Republican stated that Virginia is a state with a giant metropolis. The population density of Arlington and Alexandria does nothing to prove that. I would also contest that Washington is a giant metropolis as America's 20th largest city, but also, it is literally not in Virginia.

The largest city in Virginia is Virginia Beach, clocking in at 44th in America's largest cities. The next largest cities in Virginia are Norfolk (91st), Chesapeake (92nd), and Richmond (98th). These are all at or larger in population than either Arlington or Alexandria!

And Fairfax County is not a metropolis, don't kid yourself. The more important point is that the combined population of NOVA (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) is 2.4 million. This is about 29% of the state's population. Meanwhile, the Atlanta metro population (as defined  is 5.9 million, about 57% of the state's population.

Ok?  Look, the fact that you are discussing city limits instead of MSAs, think that the DC metro is not giant despite being the nationís sixth largest (4th by CSA), and think that pointing out that DC is the USí 20th largest city is an intelligent point, demonstrates to me that you simply donít have the level of sophistication in discussing demographics necessary to hold my interest in continuing the conversation.  If you want to continue imagining that you live in the VA of 50 years ago, I ainít gonna stop ya.  Let me guess- you probably live west of I-81 and havenít been to the eastern parts of the state in years. Getting warm?
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2019, 06:04:53 pm »

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.

I agree with this. NC will probably end up as a much close, swingy state that tilts ever so slightly more Republican than the nation.

Could any other state join this "Tilt R" column of states and voters that usually vote Republican but can be persuaded under unique circumstances. Basically the reason why every election in the last 30 years has either been a heartbreaker or a non-quite-a-landslide for Democrats.

I imagine these people are your typical 45 year old suburban white people who did well in college but have their degree in something somewhat easy from a school that is somewhat easy to get in. Most of them have boring jobs  in low rise office parks with good but not great pay. Maybe 75000 a year. They probably have someone at home who probably takes care of the place but probably brings in like 30000 or the side.  You know. The type of people who claim not to have serious problems with women's rights or gay rights but probably felt "taken advantage of" by Obamacare but eventually got used to it. They probably are open to some of Trump's ideas on immigration, but not trade. Most of them will say they "disapprove" of Trump but unless the Democrats are winning, basically all of them will hold their nose for him.

In states like Colorado or Virginia, they probably kept voting for Hillary and will never vote for Trump but many of them still identify as Republicans and Independents.

They are the reason that if an election is decided by less than 3%, the Republicans will win.

Your scorn is showing...

ďThere must be SOME explanation for cosmopolitan professionals who arenít like me!Ē
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