Political future of North Carolina

[heatcharger]

Ok?  Look, the fact that you are discussing city limits instead of MSAs, think that the DC metro is not giant despite being the nation’s sixth largest (4th by CSA), and think that pointing out that DC is the US’ 20th largest city is an intelligent point, demonstrates to me that you simply don’t have the level of sophistication in discussing demographics necessary to hold my interest in continuing the conversation.  If you want to continue imagining that you live in the VA of 50 years ago, I ain’t gonna stop ya.  Let me guess- you probably live west of I-81 and haven’t been to the eastern parts of the state in years. Getting warm?

The DC CSA is oversized. If you actually understood Mid-Atlantic subcultures, you would know that DC and Baltimore are close in geography but have remarkably different cultures and economies. And this dynamic is in effect in Virginia as well -- DC has a rather limited political and cultural influence on places like Culpeper and Front Royal, which are in the DC CSA for some reason. So throwing out this metric, I used a definition of NOVA that almost everyone in NOVA would deem fair:

Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park

Notice how nowhere in my post did I argue DC was not a major influence on Northern Virginia! Or even Virginia as a whole. I merely showed how this is overstated in comparison to Atlanta in Georgia. If this argument makes me too much of an uneducated yokel in your mind, well, that's on you man.

[AN63093]

If your point was only that DC (or NoVA) was a smaller influence on VA than Atlanta is on GA, then that's completely reasonable. But that's narrower than your original post, which didn't say only that.  It was rather, for whatever reason, taking umbrage at that one poster's description of VA and then getting all snarky with other posters about it.  When the truth is, no matter how much you may quibble at that particular poster's semantics, he's not really incorrect.  Now if your definition of "giant metropolises" only includes mega-cities like Tokyo, then sure, DC does not qualify.  But by US standards and compared to US urban areas, there is no question that DC is one of the largest metros, no matter how you slice it.  The fact that the central core (i.e. the district itself) is not in VA, and the fact that the district itself is only #20 on the list of US cities by population, is immaterial to this fact and betrays that you are more interested in just being annoying than discussing something earnestly. 

And as far as large metros go, there is no question that DC's effect on VA is substantial and overwhelming.  NoVA by itself, if chopped off from the rest of the DC metro, would still be somewhere around the 20th largest metro area in the US, and nearly a third of VA's population.  But bifurcating it like that would be nonsensical since it is wholly integrated with the rest of the metro, as demonstrated by commuting patterns, transit links, and so on.  So it only makes sense to describe it in terms of the larger metro.  But even if you could discuss it as a separate entity, it's pretty obvious that it dictates the political swing of VA- as I mentioned already (and you conveniently ignored), just Fairfax and Arlington alone, if taken out of VA, would cause it to have voted R in 2016.  You can almost get there just by taking Fairfax out.  The reason VA is a D state now, is 100% and only because of growth in NoVA.  Yes, Henrico has also trended strongly D, and there is D trending in places like Chesterfield and VA Beach.  But this would never have been enough to flip the state if it wasn't for NoVA.  If the DC metro didn't exist, it's likely that VA would have evolved in a direction more similar to NC or FL, as opposed to looking more and more like MD by the day.  Now if this isn't a large influence, I'm not sure what is.  Granted, it may not be exactly to the level of Atlanta, or a place like Cook County, but it's still impossible to overstate it.

As far as your other comment goes- it is a bit of a tangent but I'll address it: I understand Mid-Atlantic subcultures perfectly fine, given that I've lived in this area of the country almost my whole life.  Your description of the region is, once again, 50 years out of date.  Maybe in the 60's there was a significant difference between the MD and VA sides, and they have different historical employment bases and so on, but those differences have all but disappeared by now.  The development in between DC/Baltimore (Howard County), the stretch of I-270 through Montgomery County, and almost all of NoVA and its primary development corridors (I-66 and I-95, the Dulles Tech Corridor etc), all of these areas are not particularly different in terms of culture. 

There are a lot of reasons for this- one being the large growth of the federal government bureaucracy and the entire metro being dominated by federal government employees, defense contractors, etc.  Another reason could be that all these areas have had a pretty significant amount of foreign immigration.  But whatever the reason is, the differences have basically vanished.  I drive all the time in between Richmond, Hampton Roads, MD, and NoVA and DC, and there is very little cultural difference between them.  Particularly around Hampton Roads and DC, which are more alike culturally than they are to any other metros- partly due to, perhaps the large amount of government employees and defense contractors in both.  While you may think the DC CSA is oversized, the actual reality is that the creep from the DC metro extends a little bit further every year- the I-95 express lanes stretch all the way to almost Fredericksburg by now, which you would've known if you had drove it any time recently.  If you drive from VA Beach to DC, the entire length is almost entirely developed, with the only remaining gaps in development being about a 20 mi section between Williamsburg and the Richmond suburbs, and another ~20 mi section between the Richmond suburbs and around Spotsylvania.

[ctrepublican512]

Ok?  Look, the fact that you are discussing city limits instead of MSAs, think that the DC metro is not giant despite being the nation’s sixth largest (4th by CSA), and think that pointing out that DC is the US’ 20th largest city is an intelligent point, demonstrates to me that you simply don’t have the level of sophistication in discussing demographics necessary to hold my interest in continuing the conversation.  If you want to continue imagining that you live in the VA of 50 years ago, I ain’t gonna stop ya.  Let me guess- you probably live west of I-81 and haven’t been to the eastern parts of the state in years. Getting warm?

The DC CSA is oversized. If you actually understood Mid-Atlantic subcultures, you would know that DC and Baltimore are close in geography but have remarkably different cultures and economies. And this dynamic is in effect in Virginia as well -- DC has a rather limited political and cultural influence on places like Culpeper and Front Royal, which are in the DC CSA for some reason. So throwing out this metric, I used a definition of NOVA that almost everyone in NOVA would deem fair:

Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park

Notice how nowhere in my post did I argue DC was not a major influence on Northern Virginia! Or even Virginia as a whole. I merely showed how this is overstated in comparison to Atlanta in Georgia. If this argument makes me too much of an uneducated yokel in your mind, well, that's on you man.

Please stop this cringiness

[Person Man]

“There must be SOME explanation for cosmopolitan professionals who aren’t like me!”

Sounds like a question you’d also ask as a cosmopolitan Republican voter.

Boooooom !

So uh... what's actually going on here? You have a better way of describing swing voters that almost almost vote Republican in close elections and Democrat is less close elections? They usually are your typical slightly above average middle aged white people in  places like Sanford,FL,  Loveland,CO, and Scranton, PA.   

I think of Michael Scott from the Office or Jerry Smith for Rick and Morty.

[Camaro33]

As of now, North Carolina is slightly right of the center. I see that margin slowly increasing over time.

Any specific reason? Young voters in NC aren't really trending R.

Many Republicans from bluer states are moving to North Carolina.

This. Many Republican baby boomers from New England area move there for retirement due to it being substantially cheaper and more culturally aligned with values. Most transplants seem to be conservative. Most liberals I know detest the idea of this state... to them the state is "backwards" and unsatisfactory to their coastal elitism.

[AN63093]

“There must be SOME explanation for cosmopolitan professionals who aren’t like me!”

Sounds like a question you’d also ask as a cosmopolitan Republican voter.

Boooooom !

So uh... what's actually going on here? You have a better way of describing swing voters that almost almost vote Republican in close elections and Democrat is less close elections? They usually are your typical slightly above average middle aged white people in  places like Sanford,FL,  Loveland,CO, and Scranton, PA.  

I think of Michael Scott from the Office or Jerry Smith for Rick and Morty.

Well there could be a lot of reasons, and the truth is probably that it's a mix of people and income groups.

Those above posters have a point.  Not trying to start an internet fight or anything, but honestly your post didn't come off like a serious or thoughtful demographics analysis, and more like a rant about someone you don't like.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its will vote Dem as long as Biden is the nominee, NC is a Sunbelt state

[libertpaulian]

If FL becomes uber-Republican, I could see NC taking FL's place as the quintessential Southern bellwether state.

[Alben Barkley]

If FL becomes uber-Republican, I could see NC taking FL's place as the quintessential Southern bellwether state.

Florida is not going to become "uber-Republican."

My god, 1 point margins or less in every notable statewide race of the past few years that all happened to tilt the R's way, and you have people in this forum who unironically believe it is possible this means the state is becoming "uber-Republican." The frankly atrocious math being applied here is just embarrassing. Florida has not trended notably in either direction since 2000, it is just as much of a toss-up as ever. The demographics have not changed and are not changing meaningfully -- for every old boomer that moves in, another one dies. For every Cuban that refuses to vote Democrat because "socialism," another young liberal urbanite moves to Miami or Orlando. The state is about as balanced politically and demographically as could be.

As for North Carolina, the OVERALL trend, compared to where it was 15 years ago, is a significant D trend. Small fluctuations here and there should not be taken as definitive evidence that a "trend" has immutably reversed, as some on this forum are all too liable to do.

On the whole, North Carolina's population is becoming more educated, more urban/suburban (Charlotte is growing rapidly, and is in fact THE FASTEST GROWING CITY IN THE US FOR MILLENNIALS!), and more diverse. All of that adds up to a clear conclusion: North Carolina will be a D-leaning state pretty soon. Faster than Texas and Georgia, most likely, considering it's already closer. Despite the fact those states get more hype. Just because the state did not vote as Democratic as expected in 2016 does not change that, or mean it cannot be "the next Virginia." That's just bad logic.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hmm, i think there are better prospects and that GA, TX and AZ have more growth potential than North Carolina or Florida. It will stay a right-of-center state, and if political platform changes, probably become a lean / likely R state for a while, or at least right of center state. It could flip, and it will stay competitive for a while. I think Georgia will turn very rapidly into a D state. AZ will probably stay competitive for a while. I think it trends D but that the D swing of 2018-2020 will revert, making it lean R in 2024 (or staying as lean R as i'm not convinced it's that easy to flip it).

[Vern]

2020 will be interesting to see what happens. Because 2016 had two major events that happen to hurt the Democrats. First, the republicans shut down a lot of early voting places, which is not going to be the same in 2020. Next, Hurricane Matthew hit the coast and a lot of heavily black areas were effected which cause lower turn out in them areas. And let's pray that doesn't happen again. But even with that going against Dems, the state still moved to the left just a bit.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

As of now, North Carolina is slightly right of the center. I see that margin slowly increasing over time.

Any specific reason? Young voters in NC aren't really trending R.

Many Republicans from bluer states are moving to North Carolina.

Me in 8 months!