Political future of North Carolina

[heatcharger]

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

There’s something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

[heatcharger]

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

There’s something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.

This ain’t it chief.

[heatcharger]

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

Um, actually, Young Republican stated that Virginia is a state with a giant metropolis. The population density of Arlington and Alexandria does nothing to prove that. I would also contest that Washington is a giant metropolis as America's 20th largest city, but also, it is literally not in Virginia.

The largest city in Virginia is Virginia Beach, clocking in at 44th in America's largest cities. The next largest cities in Virginia are Norfolk (91st), Chesapeake (92nd), and Richmond (98th). These are all at or larger in population than either Arlington or Alexandria!

And Fairfax County is not a metropolis, don't kid yourself. The more important point is that the combined population of NOVA (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) is 2.4 million. This is about 29% of the state's population. Meanwhile, the Atlanta metro population (as defined  is 5.9 million, about 57% of the state's population.

VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas...

Ironically, this is actually closer to the truth than the idea that Virginia has a giant metropolis!

[heatcharger]

Ok?  Look, the fact that you are discussing city limits instead of MSAs, think that the DC metro is not giant despite being the nation’s sixth largest (4th by CSA), and think that pointing out that DC is the US’ 20th largest city is an intelligent point, demonstrates to me that you simply don’t have the level of sophistication in discussing demographics necessary to hold my interest in continuing the conversation.  If you want to continue imagining that you live in the VA of 50 years ago, I ain’t gonna stop ya.  Let me guess- you probably live west of I-81 and haven’t been to the eastern parts of the state in years. Getting warm?

The DC CSA is oversized. If you actually understood Mid-Atlantic subcultures, you would know that DC and Baltimore are close in geography but have remarkably different cultures and economies. And this dynamic is in effect in Virginia as well -- DC has a rather limited political and cultural influence on places like Culpeper and Front Royal, which are in the DC CSA for some reason. So throwing out this metric, I used a definition of NOVA that almost everyone in NOVA would deem fair:

Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park

Notice how nowhere in my post did I argue DC was not a major influence on Northern Virginia! Or even Virginia as a whole. I merely showed how this is overstated in comparison to Atlanta in Georgia. If this argument makes me too much of an uneducated yokel in your mind, well, that's on you man.