Political future of North Carolina

[AN63093]

I don't know if NC is destined to become the next VA.  I'd say GA is the more likely candidate for that.

NC is going to be hard to predict going forward.  Yes, it did trend D, but it swung R and the D trend was only 0.15%.  I'm a big believer in trends, but it's really hard to extrapolate much from a .15% trend.. that amount, while not wholly irrelevant, is pretty insignificant and can be explained by a lot of factors (including just random variance).

Dems are maxed out in places like Durham, Orange, Buncombe.  Clinton was hitting almost the exact same percentages in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area.  The brightest spot for Dems might be Wake, which a) trended D, b) had higher turnout, and c) has high population growth.  But a few things on that- first, the growth could be slowing.. while it's still pretty high, the days of 40%+ growth are probably over (at least for now).  Second, even with higher turnout, it was not enough to flip the state.  And third, and perhaps most importantly, Clinton is still hitting about the same % (although Trump had a drop off from Romney).. this is suggesting that unlike a place like NoVA, the growth there is different and doesn't consist of mostly liberals (although obviously they will be a large portion).

The same dynamic is at work in Mecklenburg- a D trend, increased turnout and high growth.. but also growth that is plateauing, turnout not enough to flip the state, and Clinton's % is nearly the same as 2012.  And like Wake, Trump had drop off, but a cursory look at the numbers reveals they mostly went to Johnson.  So overall, even with growth, the Charlotte area is relatively stable.

So it's just too early to tell at this point.  While NC is growing, it could be growing more like SC than like GA, in which case, no, it won't be the new VA.  Or it could.  We just have to wait and see.. not much we can predict from the data right now.

But if I had to guess, I would say it's more likely that NC remains a 'battle of inches' state, sorta like PA or FL (or how OH used to be), etc.

[AN63093]

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

There’s something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.

This ain’t it chief.

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

[AN63093]

While that poster's description may not be a particularly shining example of elegant writing, his general point is not really incorrect.  DC is the sixth largest MSA in the US, with a large part of its suburbs (at this point, it may even be a majority) on the VA side.  The denser areas (such as Arlington, Alexandria etc) are essentially 100% developed and also some of the densest parts of the metro.  VA's current political lean is, in large part, due to the impact of having that large metro being a substantial share of the votes.  If you took out Fairfax and Arlington, VA would've gone R in 2016- in fact, you can almost get there with just Fairfax alone.

The poster is not wrong that states containing one large metro that is a significant percentage of the states' population tend to vote D.  Now that may be more a case of correlation rather than causation, and in any case, I don't think NC's metro areas' size has much to do with its lean (as opposed to growth patterns/demographics, as I discuss above).

But be that as it may, he is not wrong in his description of VA.  Maybe in your mind VA more resembles a state like OH... but VA is not accurately described as a state with merely a couple mid sized metros, a small portion of one large metro, and a mix of small towns/rural areas, and it hasn't been accurate to describe it as such for decades.  Now if this is a fact that causes you discomfort, I do not know (nor care), but it is the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

Um, actually, Young Republican stated that Virginia is a state with a giant metropolis. The population density of Arlington and Alexandria does nothing to prove that. I would also contest that Washington is a giant metropolis as America's 20th largest city, but also, it is literally not in Virginia.

The largest city in Virginia is Virginia Beach, clocking in at 44th in America's largest cities. The next largest cities in Virginia are Norfolk (91st), Chesapeake (92nd), and Richmond (98th). These are all at or larger in population than either Arlington or Alexandria!

And Fairfax County is not a metropolis, don't kid yourself. The more important point is that the combined population of NOVA (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, City of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) is 2.4 million. This is about 29% of the state's population. Meanwhile, the Atlanta metro population (as defined  is 5.9 million, about 57% of the state's population.

Ok?  Look, the fact that you are discussing city limits instead of MSAs, think that the DC metro is not giant despite being the nation’s sixth largest (4th by CSA), and think that pointing out that DC is the US’ 20th largest city is an intelligent point, demonstrates to me that you simply don’t have the level of sophistication in discussing demographics necessary to hold my interest in continuing the conversation.  If you want to continue imagining that you live in the VA of 50 years ago, I ain’t gonna stop ya.  Let me guess- you probably live west of I-81 and haven’t been to the eastern parts of the state in years. Getting warm?

[AN63093]

If your point was only that DC (or NoVA) was a smaller influence on VA than Atlanta is on GA, then that's completely reasonable. But that's narrower than your original post, which didn't say only that.  It was rather, for whatever reason, taking umbrage at that one poster's description of VA and then getting all snarky with other posters about it.  When the truth is, no matter how much you may quibble at that particular poster's semantics, he's not really incorrect.  Now if your definition of "giant metropolises" only includes mega-cities like Tokyo, then sure, DC does not qualify.  But by US standards and compared to US urban areas, there is no question that DC is one of the largest metros, no matter how you slice it.  The fact that the central core (i.e. the district itself) is not in VA, and the fact that the district itself is only #20 on the list of US cities by population, is immaterial to this fact and betrays that you are more interested in just being annoying than discussing something earnestly. 

And as far as large metros go, there is no question that DC's effect on VA is substantial and overwhelming.  NoVA by itself, if chopped off from the rest of the DC metro, would still be somewhere around the 20th largest metro area in the US, and nearly a third of VA's population.  But bifurcating it like that would be nonsensical since it is wholly integrated with the rest of the metro, as demonstrated by commuting patterns, transit links, and so on.  So it only makes sense to describe it in terms of the larger metro.  But even if you could discuss it as a separate entity, it's pretty obvious that it dictates the political swing of VA- as I mentioned already (and you conveniently ignored), just Fairfax and Arlington alone, if taken out of VA, would cause it to have voted R in 2016.  You can almost get there just by taking Fairfax out.  The reason VA is a D state now, is 100% and only because of growth in NoVA.  Yes, Henrico has also trended strongly D, and there is D trending in places like Chesterfield and VA Beach.  But this would never have been enough to flip the state if it wasn't for NoVA.  If the DC metro didn't exist, it's likely that VA would have evolved in a direction more similar to NC or FL, as opposed to looking more and more like MD by the day.  Now if this isn't a large influence, I'm not sure what is.  Granted, it may not be exactly to the level of Atlanta, or a place like Cook County, but it's still impossible to overstate it.

As far as your other comment goes- it is a bit of a tangent but I'll address it: I understand Mid-Atlantic subcultures perfectly fine, given that I've lived in this area of the country almost my whole life.  Your description of the region is, once again, 50 years out of date.  Maybe in the 60's there was a significant difference between the MD and VA sides, and they have different historical employment bases and so on, but those differences have all but disappeared by now.  The development in between DC/Baltimore (Howard County), the stretch of I-270 through Montgomery County, and almost all of NoVA and its primary development corridors (I-66 and I-95, the Dulles Tech Corridor etc), all of these areas are not particularly different in terms of culture. 

There are a lot of reasons for this- one being the large growth of the federal government bureaucracy and the entire metro being dominated by federal government employees, defense contractors, etc.  Another reason could be that all these areas have had a pretty significant amount of foreign immigration.  But whatever the reason is, the differences have basically vanished.  I drive all the time in between Richmond, Hampton Roads, MD, and NoVA and DC, and there is very little cultural difference between them.  Particularly around Hampton Roads and DC, which are more alike culturally than they are to any other metros- partly due to, perhaps the large amount of government employees and defense contractors in both.  While you may think the DC CSA is oversized, the actual reality is that the creep from the DC metro extends a little bit further every year- the I-95 express lanes stretch all the way to almost Fredericksburg by now, which you would've known if you had drove it any time recently.  If you drive from VA Beach to DC, the entire length is almost entirely developed, with the only remaining gaps in development being about a 20 mi section between Williamsburg and the Richmond suburbs, and another ~20 mi section between the Richmond suburbs and around Spotsylvania.

[AN63093]

“There must be SOME explanation for cosmopolitan professionals who aren’t like me!”

Sounds like a question you’d also ask as a cosmopolitan Republican voter.

Boooooom !

So uh... what's actually going on here? You have a better way of describing swing voters that almost almost vote Republican in close elections and Democrat is less close elections? They usually are your typical slightly above average middle aged white people in  places like Sanford,FL,  Loveland,CO, and Scranton, PA.  

I think of Michael Scott from the Office or Jerry Smith for Rick and Morty.

Well there could be a lot of reasons, and the truth is probably that it's a mix of people and income groups.

Those above posters have a point.  Not trying to start an internet fight or anything, but honestly your post didn't come off like a serious or thoughtful demographics analysis, and more like a rant about someone you don't like.