How did Nixon do so well in Maryland, West Virginia and Hawaii in ‘72?
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  How did Nixon do so well in Maryland, West Virginia and Hawaii in ‘72?
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Author Topic: How did Nixon do so well in Maryland, West Virginia and Hawaii in ‘72?  (Read 1048 times)
TheReckoning
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 17, 2021, 01:12:38 AM »
« edited: February 18, 2021, 12:01:20 AM by TheReckoning »

Did he do really good with minorities or something?

EDIT: Added West Virginia because that was another state in which he did quite well for a Republican (at the time).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2021, 01:20:28 AM »

Hawaii seems to have always had a pro-incumbent streak, and this was particularly true prior to 1992. Lyndon Johnson, for example, massively improved in the state over Kennedy's 1960 performance there, Carter managed to hold Hawaii in 1980 despite having only won it by a narrow margin four years earlier, and Reagan decisively won the state in 1984 against Mondale. Nixon's 1972 victory was no different from this pattern. Moreover, during the Cold War, Hawaii's voting habits were, to a certain extent, influenced by strategic and military considerations, which further contributed to its support for Nixon and Reagan.

Now, I'm not sure about Maryland. 1972 was the only time, out of three elections, that Nixon won the state, and it was also the only election that he carried the home state of his running mate. Spiro Agnew, of course, was Governor of Maryland when he was tapped as Nixon's running mate in 1968 and Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., Nixon's 1960 running mate, was from Massachusetts, the only state Nixon never won. It's particularly interesting how Nixon did much better in Maryland than Reagan and Bush did in the 1980s.
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UWS
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2021, 07:24:09 AM »

His running mate Vice-President Spiro Agnew is from Maryland, where he was Governor before becoming Vice-President, which is a boost for Nixon in Maryland.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2021, 07:28:51 AM »


It's particularly interesting how Nixon did much better in Maryland than Reagan and Bush did in the 1980s.

For me, it is interesting how Bush won MD in 1988--by a fairly comfortable 50000 vote margin.   That was one of the 6 states that Carter won in 1980.  Even WV swung back to Dukakis.    Looks like the Willie Horton issue had significant impact in these suburban type states.  
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2021, 07:33:51 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2021, 07:52:29 AM by UWS »

I think it is also thanks to the efforts of the Democrats for Nixon that was chaired by John Connally that broadcasted advertisements telling voters, including Dems, why Nixon is the best choice and how much McGovern is so extreme on issues, especially on national defense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_for_Nixon
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2021, 10:31:35 AM »

Nixon did do very well with minorities, especially blacks and hispanics. He managed to do very well along the Rio Grande and was the only Republican to ever crack 20% in DC.

This is both because McGovern was that awful and because Nixon largely governed as a pragmatic conservative and was vocally moderate on race relations and let others in his campaign handle the racist talking points for things like the southern strategy.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2021, 10:34:50 AM »

You also have to wonder about the demographics of Maryland then versus in the 80s and later--I know Prince George's County was not always a predominantly Black community, and underwent major white flight, eventually becoming majority Black in the 90s. I imagine a white PG county in the early 70s made it easier for Nixon to win MD.
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Kevin
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2021, 11:02:15 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2021, 11:11:06 AM by Kevin »

You also have to wonder about the demographics of Maryland then versus in the 80s and later--I know Prince George's County was not always a predominantly Black community, and underwent major white flight, eventually becoming majority Black in the 90s. I imagine a white PG county in the early 70s made it easier for Nixon to win MD.

^^^^^^^

PG was indeed majority white in the '70s (specifically heavily white working-class). Montgomery County was majority white middle-upper class and educated back then. While Howard, Frederick, Anne Arundel, etc were still quite rural except for some more urban pockets.

I think Spiro Agnew on the ticket def helped Nixon in MD to some degree. Plus the fact that Agnew was a more moderate Republican at the time who had defeated a Democrat with segregationist sympathies for governor didn't hurt with more educated liberal voters either.

Memories of the 68 riots in DC also probably didn't help McGovern.
 

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vitoNova
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« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2021, 11:27:51 AM »

Because USPACOM was "in it to win it" and was not about to vote for some commie twinkletoes, VC-loving Democrat libtard like George McGovern.

I wouldn't be surprised if HI drifts rightward in the decades to come if our relationship with China grows more adversarial. 
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2021, 12:30:16 PM »


It's particularly interesting how Nixon did much better in Maryland than Reagan and Bush did in the 1980s.

For me, it is interesting how Bush won MD in 1988--by a fairly comfortable 50000 vote margin.   That was one of the 6 states that Carter won in 1980.  Even WV swung back to Dukakis.    Looks like the Willie Horton issue had significant impact in these suburban type states.  

I've talked about Maryland's 1988 results before, and you're right that Willie Horton was probably the decisive factor in why Bush held not only Maryland, but also suburban-heavy states like Connecticut, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2021, 10:53:20 PM »

McGovern's foreign policy was likely unpopular in Hawaii. As far as Maryland goes, what the comments above are forgetting is that Nixon put up much higher margins on the conservative Eastern Shore than he did in 1968. It stands out more than his performance in the Baltimore region.
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sguberman
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2021, 09:07:23 PM »

What's funny about West Virginia is that apparently it was one of only two states the Nixon campaign wasn't confident about yet he won in a landslide there.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2021, 05:43:22 AM »

What's funny about West Virginia is that apparently it was one of only two states the Nixon campaign wasn't confident about yet he won in a landslide there.

West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state back in those days, only voting Republican in landslide years (such as in 1972). McGovern's liberalism was a bridge too far for the state's voters. It was also one of the few states which was in some doubt in 1984, although Reagan ultimately defeated Mondale handily (though by a smaller margin than Nixon, as Mondale outperformed McGovern generally throughout Appalachia and the Upper South). George W. Bush in 2000 was the first Republican since Charles Evans Hughes in 1916, 84 years earlier, to win West Virginia in a non-landslide election for his party.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2021, 11:59:40 PM »

What's funny about West Virginia is that apparently it was one of only two states the Nixon campaign wasn't confident about yet he won in a landslide there.
Weren't they also not confident about both Massachusetts (which they lost) and Minnesota?
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TheReckoning
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2021, 12:25:50 AM »

What's funny about West Virginia is that apparently it was one of only two states the Nixon campaign wasn't confident about yet he won in a landslide there.
Weren't they also not confident about both Massachusetts (which they lost) and Minnesota?

I don’t think they were confident about Rhode Island either.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2021, 03:55:53 AM »

What's funny about West Virginia is that apparently it was one of only two states the Nixon campaign wasn't confident about yet he won in a landslide there.
Weren't they also not confident about both Massachusetts (which they lost) and Minnesota?

I don’t think they were confident about Rhode Island either.

You could say Nixon wasn't confident about anything hence some of the obvious actions there.
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