JFK in 64

[MillennialModerate]

Continuing in my series of “What If’s” on the Kennedy’s. This is perhaps the one that has been beaten to death for years and on this forum as well. 1964. So many questions come from this one. You have a President who at his lowest points had a 55% favorable and at his highest had upwards of near 80%. Yet, the Solid South was not thrilled with how far he had come on Civil Rights. So how does that change things?

It’s pretty much unanimous that if he had SURVIVED the assasination attempt, he wins easily with help of the sympathy vote. But what if the assassination attempt doesn’t happen? How does JFK do? Also, who is his opponent? There were indications that’s Nixon was sizing himself up for the nod in ‘64.

So two questions for everyone. Who does JFK face in ‘64? and with maps, how does he do?

[brucejoel99]

Goldwater would still be the nominee, as he appeals to the growing right-wing base. However, regardless of whether or not the country's political atmosphere would be much less toxic without a president having just been assassinated, there'd still be no self-respecting moderate with an ounce of political sanity who'd team up with him. JFK & Goldwater embark on a traveling series of joint town-hall debates, which they'd already agreed to do before the assassination as, on personal terms, they were quite cordial. The election is a JFK landslide, only slightly smaller than LBJ's.

Kennedy/Johnson: 439 EVs, 58%
Goldwater/Miller: 99 EVs, 41%

[MillennialModerate]

Goldwater would still be the nominee, as he appeals to the growing right-wing base. However, regardless of whether or not the country's political atmosphere would be much less toxic without a president having just been assassinated, there'd still be no self-respecting moderate with an ounce of political sanity who'd team up with him. JFK & Goldwater embark on a traveling series of joint town-hall debates, which they'd already agreed to do before the assassination as, on personal terms, they were quite cordial. The election is a JFK landslide, only slightly smaller than LBJ's.

Kennedy/Johnson: 439 EVs, 58%
Goldwater/Miller: 99 EVs, 41%

I like the way you think. I pretty thought the same thing, a LBJ landslide with a few less states.

[Mr. Smith]

Kennedy/Johnson: 447 EV, 61%
Goldwater/Miller: 101 EV, 38%


Whatever JFK loses in The South or Mountain West compared to LBJ is made up bigly by an even greater landslide in The Northeast, California, and Illinois.

[MillennialModerate]

Now what if the opponent is Nixon?!

[brucejoel99]

Now what if the opponent is Nixon?!

He wouldn't be stupid enough to run.

He was considered politically dead after his loss in the 1962 California governor's race. The idea that he could run & win just 1-2 years after having his political obituary written would require some extraordinary circumstances (which wouldn't happen: JFK's approval ratings were at 76% in late 1963, with a majority of Republicans approving of his job performance, so no Republican was gonna beat JFK in 1964). Granted, such extraordinary circumstances had occurred for him by 1968, but 1964 was still a relatively tranquil time, without the divisions that'd develop later in the decade.

[MillennialModerate]

Now what if the opponent is Nixon?!

He wouldn't be stupid enough to run.

He was considered politically dead after his loss in the 1962 California governor's race. The idea that he could run & win just 1-2 years after having his political obituary written would require some extraordinary circumstances (which wouldn't happen: JFK's approval ratings were at 76% in late 1963, with a majority of Republicans approving of his job performance, so no Republican was gonna beat JFK in 1964). Granted, such extraordinary circumstances had occurred for him by 1968, but 1964 was still a relatively tranquil time, without the divisions that'd develop later in the decade.

I kind of agree here as well but what spurred this whole thread was me seeing this video from November 10, 1963. President Eisenhower on Face the Nation says Nixon is the one in ‘64.

https://youtu.be/XRDMo6OGAn4

[brucejoel99]

Now what if the opponent is Nixon?!

He wouldn't be stupid enough to run.

He was considered politically dead after his loss in the 1962 California governor's race. The idea that he could run & win just 1-2 years after having his political obituary written would require some extraordinary circumstances (which wouldn't happen: JFK's approval ratings were at 76% in late 1963, with a majority of Republicans approving of his job performance, so no Republican was gonna beat JFK in 1964). Granted, such extraordinary circumstances had occurred for him by 1968, but 1964 was still a relatively tranquil time, without the divisions that'd develop later in the decade.

I kind of agree here as well but what spurred this whole thread was me seeing this video from November 10, 1963. President Eisenhower on Face the Nation says Nixon is the one in ‘64.

https://youtu.be/XRDMo6OGAn4

Well, it's not like he was gonna publicly say that his own VP (let alone his party) were screwed lol

[Podgy the Bear]

But would Goldwater have been the nominee had JFK lived?  I tend to think that even with his 1962 gubernatorial loss, Nixon would have received another chance via the Republican convention. 

Had JFK lived, I believe the fight in the primaries between Goldwater on the right and Rockefeller/Lodge/Scranton on the moderate side would have been harder fought than it really was and would have left no real front runner.  In the end, the convention would turn to a consensus candidate.

Nixon would never have run in the primaries, but I doubt he would have turned down a draft at the 1964 convention.

[Fuzzy Bear]

JFK/LBJ vs Barry Goldwater/William Miller

[One Term Floridian]

JFK/LBJ vs Barry Goldwater/William Miller

No way JFK does this poorly against Goldwater, especially in New England. He'd sweep just like Johnson did up there. And why is CO going for Goldwater in a landslide here even though it voted more Dem than the rest of the country IRL

[brucejoel99]

But would Goldwater have been the nominee had JFK lived?  I tend to think that even with his 1962 gubernatorial loss, Nixon would have received another chance via the Republican convention. 

Had JFK lived, I believe the fight in the primaries between Goldwater on the right and Rockefeller/Lodge/Scranton on the moderate side would have been harder fought than it really was and would have left no real front runner.  In the end, the convention would turn to a consensus candidate.

Nixon would never have run in the primaries, but I doubt he would have turned down a draft at the 1964 convention.

See above:

He wouldn't be stupid enough to run.

He was considered politically dead after his loss in the 1962 California governor's race. The idea that he could run & win just 1-2 years after having his political obituary written would require some extraordinary circumstances (which wouldn't happen: JFK's approval ratings were at 76% in late 1963, with a majority of Republicans approving of his job performance, so no Republican was gonna beat JFK in 1964). Granted, such extraordinary circumstances had occurred for him by 1968, but 1964 was still a relatively tranquil time, without the divisions that'd develop later in the decade.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kennedy 274
Goldwater 264

[One Term Floridian]

Kennedy 274
Goldwater 264

Smh no... Goldwater wouldn't be doing this well even if all of JFK's sex scandals came to light during the election

[morgankingsley]

Kennedy 274
Goldwater 264

Smh no... Goldwater wouldn't be doing this well even if all of JFK's sex scandals came to light during the election

If this was the map, with these wild shades, Goldwater would probably win the popular by like 4-6

[One Term Floridian]

Kennedy 274
Goldwater 264

Smh no... Goldwater wouldn't be doing this well even if all of JFK's sex scandals came to light during the election

If this was the map, with these wild shades, Goldwater would probably win the popular by like 4-6

Absurd lol

[Politician]

[morgankingsley]

At least it's better than Cory bookers map

[One Term Floridian]

Finally decided to make one of my own. I have JFK roughly matching LBJ’s electoral vote count (479 as opposed to 486 for LBJ) because I figure his Catholicism would narrowly keep Dems holding on to Louisiana. It didn’t go all that decisively to Goldwater IRL so it’s possible JFK could’ve held it. Before he died, he also planned on campaigning heavily in the South, especially FL so I figure he doesn’t do quite as badly there as you would think.

Also, Goldwater calling to end farm subsidies would destroy him in the Plains/Midwest. Fact. With him almost certainly being the GOP nominee, he guarantees a Dem blowout in the Electoral College as well as Dem gains in Congress, albeit probably fairly less there than in IRL