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September 15, 2019, 11:01:20 am
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Silurian)
  Change my view: Hillary wins orange county no matter who gop nominee is
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Author Topic: Change my view: Hillary wins orange county no matter who gop nominee is  (Read 977 times)
marty
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« on: July 21, 2019, 05:20:24 pm »

It would have been by a much smaller margin, but she would win by 2-3 points against rubio and kasich, 3-5 vs bush, 7 vs cruz.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2019, 06:03:21 pm »

Disagree.SHe would have lost to Rubio and Kasich.
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2019, 06:38:41 pm »

She would have lost it to anyone but Trump, Cruz, or Carson.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2019, 12:39:27 pm »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2019, 12:46:54 pm »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

lol
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2019, 12:57:25 pm »

2014 saw Orange County vote 56-44 Kashkari even as California voted 60-40 Brown. And wasn't the total House vote in 2016 in Orange County still decently comfortably Republican? Royce, Walters, and Rohrabacher were all reelected by double-digits.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2019, 02:04:42 pm »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

lol

Oh you know what I mean lmao
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2019, 02:52:13 pm »

I don't know.  Rubio, Jeb, or Kasich might have been able to win it.
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Politician
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2019, 03:03:10 pm »

No. Trump killed the GOP in educated suburbs (this county trendee Repubiican in 2012). Cox only lost it by half a point as a Trumpist so it's clear any other Republican would have won it easily.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2019, 03:18:32 pm »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

lol

Oh you know what I mean lmao

Yeah I guess I do lol
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2019, 02:14:19 am »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

Cox compared the Department of Motor Vehicles to the Holocaust once. He was not sane.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2019, 03:16:15 am »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

Cox compared the Department of Motor Vehicles to the Holocaust once. He was not sane.

Hence the word "relatively."
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2019, 04:06:24 am »

Rubio at a minimum would do it, as would've Kasich/Jeb if they were somehow nominees. Just look at how it voted in the House, or even 2018.

Less sold re: Lyin' Ted though. He seems a pretty toxic candidate for wealthy suburbs too....at least non-Southern ones.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2019, 11:29:49 am »

Orange County would've voted any rationally sane Republican over her. Just look at how close it was in a D+9 year between Newsom & (the relatively sane) Cox.

Cox compared the Department of Motor Vehicles to the Holocaust once. He was not sane.

Hence the word "relatively."

Oh, did you mean "relatively" there? That makes more sense.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2019, 06:27:47 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2019, 06:36:08 pm by Interlocutor »

I had been thinking even before Trump won the nomination that Hillary would win OC. Romney was a great candidate for the area and mustered a 6% lead.

At the very least, it would not have been a likely R win. Maybe 2% win with Bush/Rubio/Kasich, but not a slam dunk.

I also tend not to look at the 2014 gubernatorial results in California for comparison, with abysmal turnout (Particularly in SoCal) & Jerry Brown's invisible re-election campaign.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2019, 10:53:39 pm »

Disagree, although it probably won't matter going forward. Trump has fundamentally realigned Orange County into the Democratic column.
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2019, 08:07:25 pm »

Kasich could probably have won it.
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#StillWithBeto
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2019, 05:32:31 am »

Disagree, although it probably won't matter going forward. Trump has fundamentally realigned Orange County into the Democratic column.

Yeah, and Orange County voted straight Democratic up and down the ticket for all the statewide elected offices in 2018 minus the Insurance Commissioner (and that could have been because the once Republican Steve Poizner ran as an Independent instead of a Trumplican). Does anybody know when the last time was when Democrats swept all the statewides in the OC? Surely it has to be sometime around 1936 when FDR was the last Democrat to carry it in a presidential election up until 2016.

2018
Governor: Newsom+ 0.28
Lt. Governor (D vs. D): Kounalakis+ 7.06
Secretary of State: Padilla+ 4.58
State Treasurer: Ma+ 3.62
Attorney General: Becerra+ 3.32
Controller: Yee+ 5.84
Insurance Commissioner: Poizner+ 16.06

Perhaps that's the future of the Trumplican Party in California: just run as an independent. The magic (R) after a candidate's name seems to be stigmata to voters out there in crucial counties like Orange.
Maybe Hillary was just a good fit for the county? She won it both times during the primaries.
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National Progressive
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2019, 03:34:43 am »


Maybe Hillary was just a good fit for the county? She won it both times during the primaries.

Asians, Latinos, and professional class whites were all pretty favourable demos for Hillary. Though tellingly in the 2016 primary she lost or at least ran very narrowly in working-class Latino neighbourhoods.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2019, 07:04:35 pm »

I don't know if I would agree but I certainly can't disagree to a point where I feel the need to argue
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