The 150th Edition of College Football - Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

A long time ago in a state far, far away from the center of the college football universe, the proud young men from the ivy-covered campus in picturesque Princeton, New Jersey boarded some rickety 19th century trains and headed off to New Jersey's rough-and-tumble public school campus. The polished prep school men and tomorrows leaders were headed off to quench their appetite for combat - for those who ably dodged the war as well as those called to serve. Little did they know that their bravery on that fall day of woeful kicks attempts on a very crowded gridiron would be the most impactful battle of the decade - not just against each other for state bragging rights but against the harsh theocracies that aimed to make life solemn.

That day was one hundred and fifty autumns ago. The administrators got their way at first and forced the cancellation of many a game and even a season in their efforts to be be strict disciplinarians at respectable institutions – it was an ambitious goal to train young men in the classics, Puritanical morality and above all, honor, but the students had an even grander mission in mind. And when the money poured in, the capitalist experiment helped kick football to new heights.

Due to the lost 1871 season, we can proudly call this season where we celebrate the 150th anniversary, College Football 150. Of course, due to the strangeness of our sport, we have approximately 187 champions in the prior 149 seasons hailing from 44 campuses (seven whom no longer compete for the FBS championship) - if you care to include the initial one for both Rutgers and Princeton. Of course, the latter went on to win 14 more times to show who the real champion was that year whereas Rutgers has been stuck in desolation despite the promising start. Sadly, they will not meet in what would be a very competitive game in honor of that anniversary thanks to those pesky administrators chasing money and wins for bowl eligibility. I have little doubt the Tigers would pull it out. They will instead celebrate against traditional rival Dartmouth in the House that Ruth Built.



In what has been a decade of dullness featuring the same five competitive teams, our beloved sport is going through a lull. Is the next great dynasty going to begin soon? Alabama starts the season looking to finally pass Princeton for second in all-time championships (minus bogus claims) and set their sights on Yale's record. The expectation is that Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia should once again have easy roads and that Ohio State remains the team to beat up north despite a more talented rival. Does our magical anniversary season leave us any room for surprise?

The highest ranked schools never to have reached the pinnacle are expected to be Oregon (which may be a year away), Utah (which is largely expected to run the table but has four big challenges), and Wisconsin (a very unsexy pick to rebound is an extremely crowded divisional race). Could any of them muddy the playoff picture?

Who am I kidding? College Football 150 is all about Clemson vs. Alabama, Part 5 – hopefully for the final time! I do hope the Aggies can challenge Clemson, but I don’t expect one loss will keep either out and it is tough to see more than one. And I say that while feel very pessimistic about Alabama – their schedule plays out terrifically.

What are you most excited about this season? Will there be a second ACC ranked in the top 25? Can Scott Frost leapfrog Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin to bring the Cornhuskers back to national prominence or is the defensive depth not ready to hold up just yet? Is the Big Ten East up for grabs? Is football still a sport on the left coast? Will the Bison lock up their eighth national championship of the decade? Discuss all your preseason predictions here as dfwlibertylover prepares the Week 1 slate of games for the Pick 'Em, back by popular demand.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

You know there is something special about college football when even WE (Illini fans) get excited each year, at least at the beginning.

In my honest assessment, I think I would say Illinois is at least a better team than Purdue next year. Unfortunately while you both draw one of the two worst teams in the conference, Purdue gets you guys at home and has a somewhat more palatable test in an okay Indiana team, again at home, as opposed to Michigan State on the road.

I wouldn't discount the possibility that the Illini steal one from Wisconsin or Northwestern this year, but I won't count on it. Five wins would be a very good season, and it would still more likely than not mean last place in the Big Ten West. Top 60, potentially top 50 team, trapped in a division with six other top 50 teams. Sounds like a blast! At least the bowl eligibility odds have to be higher for you given Purdue's fearsome out-of-conference slate.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Notre Dame will underachieve, but I am glad I can cling to a tiny bit of hope that they can slay the sleeping giant of the south.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Florida
Arizona
Cincinnati
Clemson
Utah
Wisconsin
Rutgers
Colorado
Illinois
Kansas
Kentucky
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Alabama
Stanford
Virginia Tech
UC Davis
Georgia
Auburn
Virginia
USC
Oklahoma
Notre Dame

Samford
Towson

A lot of potential road game pitfalls that I hate to pick the road team in, but Week 1, man! The contenders can't lose to mid-majors of lower-major conference teams Week 1!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I receive alerts for these 13 plus Lehigh/Temple (local), LSU, and Notre Dame/Columbia/New Mexico (family). Aim to watch/radio every game of the top 9 except for those classic Bama blowouts.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

No big surprises near the top. Thought we night see Northwestern instead of Syracuse but unfortunately the Wildcats gave an uphill battle in Week 1. I'm not particularly optimistic.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Both teams really needed that to feel good about their odds of bowling. Arizona probably slightly better, but it's easy to see another 5-7 wasted year of Tate now. Fantastic game.

Youngstown and Villanova odds of getting to 8 wins for a playoff spot look much better today virtually doubling to 75 percent and 65 percent, respectively. Really just need to beat one more playoff quality team in five chances.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Huge win for Central Arkansas! Unfortunately the schedule does not get easier until November. The Southland Conference may have finally arrived with Southeastern Louisiana also in line for a major upset.

No one with a worse opening night the Conference USA. Not sure anyone expected FIU to lose this badly, and I think the expectation was the WKU was on its way back, and UAB would remain adequate. Not so fast!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

All the offseason hype surrounding Wake Forest's potential to start 6-0 is not looking misplaced. Despite a horrible O-line, poor run game, and a defense that is a shell of its former self, surviving the toughest test (thanks to inopportune turnovers by the opponent) is a great start.

We shall first see if they can survive a road trip to Boston College, which should also not be overlooked! Extremely hopeful that they can take advantage of a weak ACC. If all plays out as hoped, they may even be able to draw a respectable crowd to create a home-field atmosphere against Florida State (and North Carolina State?).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The SEC is "down" because talent consolidated to allow the conference to have five of the top eight teams in the country (top 10 at worst). [No, this does not include Florida.]

Very excited for what Jimbo and Ed O will do this year.

(No, this is not exactly what happened since all teams continue to dominate recruiting rankings including the likes of Tennessee and coaching variation is a greater explainer. But I did want to highlight the unparalleled strength at the top that no other conference comes close to.)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Army at #7 Michigan
#21 Syracuse at Maryland
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
UAB at Akron
West Virginia at Missouri
Vanderbilt at Purdue
South Florida at Georgia Tech
#12 Texas A&M at #1 Clemson
#25 Nebraska at Colorado
Illinois at UConn
San Diego State at UCLA
Western Kentucky at FIU
#18 UCF at FAU
North Texas at SMU
BYU at Tennessee
Coastal Carolina at Kansas
#6 LSU at #9 Texas
Arkansas at Ole Miss
Miami (FL) at North Carolina
Arkansas State at UNLV
Cal at #14 Washington
#23 Stanford at USC
Oregon State at Hawaii

The Citadel at Elon
Chattanooga at Jacksonville State

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow I was waiting to see if someone would pick TAMU, what's the rationale?

The smiley faces indicate exuberance beyond my better logical abilities, but I thought Clemson was not particularly special in Week 1, and I am hopeful that the defense has severely declined from last year's 2 point win. I expect a 10 point loss but someone in the top 5 programs will stumble at some point. This is as good a chance as any. I think A&M is second best in the west, and Jimbo will see big jump in year 2.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

North Carolina @ Wake Forest My gut says UNC, but I really think Wake Forest's passing game is legitimate for once and UNC may be a little too hyped. Dat 'home' edge!
Kansas @ Boston College
#6 Ohio State @ Indiana
Pittsburgh @ #13 Penn State
Chattanooga @ Tennessee
Kansas State @ Mississippi State
NC State @ West Virginia
#21 Maryland @ Temple A more legitimate home edge
Air Force @ Colorado
Stanford @ #17 UCF
#24 USC @ BYU
Arizona State @ #18 Michigan State
#19 Iowa @ Iowa State
North Texas @ California
Idaho @ Wyoming
Buffalo @ Liberty
Southern Mississippi @ Troy
#9 Florida @ Kentucky RIP Terry
Texas State @ SMU
#1 Clemson @ Syracuse
TCU @ Purdue
Florida State @ #25 Virginia
Texas Tech @ Arizona
Towson @ Maine - It's a long bus up to Orono!
Austin Peay @ Mercer

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wake wins 24-18.  UNC had the ball and was driving at the end, but they just ran out of time.

Well, they had one second left that never got reviewed.

No, they didn't. He didn't get out of bounds. This is not how football timing works. I was screaming at the television when the announcers were making their foolish interpretations.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wake wins 24-18.  UNC had the ball and was driving at the end, but they just ran out of time.

Well, they had one second left that never got reviewed.

No, they didn't. He didn't get out of bounds. This is not how football timing works. I was screaming at the television when the announcers were making their foolish interpretations.

How is that different from when Saban got one second added back right before the Kick Six?

Alabama was going forward out of bounds. That's a huge difference. The clock doesn't stop if you are going towards your own end zone. Plus the television head rationale is that stopping forward momentum means the player cannot be ruled out of bounds, which I imagine is the same concept (except with contact by the defense).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Kansas has such a beautiful schedule that they have a very reasonable chance at six wins given the home/road conference split.

On the contrary, Washington State has a very bad looking schedule. Might barely cover tonight in a nearly unwatchable game, and I feel bad for D'eriq King who lacks any support out there. I would not be optimistic about them winning more than one Pac-12 road game to get to a more ordinary 8-4 season. The defense has a lot of growing to do.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The ACC has surpassed my expectations for level of embarrassment that it could achieve. Entering last week, I had just three outside my "Top 65" representing the top half of FBS. Florida State joined last week. Virginia Tech and Boston College joined last night (VT solidifying their spot today) and NC State joined today making half of the ACC not in the top half of the FBS imo.

The good half includes Syracuse and Miami for goodness sake! Yikes!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Kentucky shows why you should never have a kicker who's name is "Chance", but they already did some really dumb stuff to blow the game before that.

He needs to request new parents to go from Chance Poore to Chance Goode.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Utah @ USC
Air Force @ Boise State
Michigan @ Wisconsin
California @ Ole Miss
Michigan State @ Northwestern
Auburn @ Texas A&M
UCF @ Pitt
Washington @ BYU
SMU @ TCU
Louisville @ Florida State
Appalachian State @ North Carolina
Central Michigan @ Miami (FL)
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
South Carolina @ Missouri
West Virginia @ Kansas
Oregon @ Stanford
Oklahoma State @ Texas
UTSA @ North Texas
Notre Dame @ Georgia
Nebraska @ Illinois
Colorado @ Arizona State
UCLA @ Washington State
Utah State @ San Diego State
Villanova @ Towson
Northern Arizona @ Illinois State

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

Hard for me to judge. We're a page removed from saying they clearly are better than the non Clemson-ACC. Houston is down, but SMU is prepped for their best season in years, ditto Tulane. Memphis and Temple remain teams that could get ranked in a few weeks (though Memphis slightly down), and I thought consensus was that this is UCF's best team yet. Suspect Navy is not far from being back too.

The conference just has three teams that are historically awful, one who will be kicked out at season end.

e: Just got around to looking at the data. Conference average S&P+ went from -3 last year (full season) to -1.7 this week.

S&P+       2018     2019   Difference
UCF               16.5   16.3   -0.2
Memphis       9.2   12.2   +3.0
Cincinnati      5.4   2.1   -3.3
Temple          2.9   6.6   +3.7
Houston        2.3   0.2   -2.1
USF              -1.2   -8.3   -7.1
Tulane           -3.5   -0.8   +2.7
SMU             -5.4   1.2   +6.6
Navy            -10.2   -9.9   +0.3
Tulsa              -11.2   -4.4   +6.8
East Carolina     -14.9   -13.8   +1.1
Connecticut      -26.4   -21.8   +4.6



My impression is that I expect Navy to make a similar gain to Tulsa by year-end. Better than USF at least! And I think SMU and Temple could stand to rise about 2-3 points. UConn still seems too much improved though!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

looks like the pac 12 is gonna be out of the playoff again....

Oregon remains one of the ten most likely participants. They unfortunately have a brutal three game stretch where they are projected to lose one, but if any of the North trio sweeps the other two and sweeps USC, they are very much in the picture. Oregon would especially be strong enough to get in over 1-loss Ohio State or maybe even Oklahoma.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

clip

I must have been using data that was from earlier than Week 4. I still had my unsaved spreadsheet up from where I sorted the data so I plugged in the new "SP+" published this morning straight from the new source. Navy did not play this week, but the numbers LOVE Navy all of a sudden [+15.8 Y:Y], so I guess I may have been right that they looked oddly low. Memphis, SMU and Tulane also made big jumps last week with Houston being the only big decline - even Temple only dropped by 0.9 despite my awful projection of improvement. The new conference average ranking is 0.65, a move of +3.69 from last year's final!

For the record, the ACC is 4.55, or 2.64 without Clemson so about 2 points higher. Just by kicking out UConn, the American will jump to 2.85 though!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

clip

I must have been using data that was from earlier than Week 4. I still had my unsaved spreadsheet up from where I sorted the data so I plugged in the new "SP+" published this morning straight from the new source. Navy did not play this week, but the numbers LOVE Navy all of a sudden [+15.8 Y:Y], so I guess I may have been right that they looked oddly low. Memphis, SMU and Tulane also made big jumps last week with Houston being the only big decline - even Temple only dropped by 0.9 despite my awful projection of improvement. The new conference average ranking is 0.65, a move of +3.69 from last year's final!

For the record, the ACC is 4.55, or 2.64 without Clemson so about 2 points higher. Just by kicking out UConn, the American will jump to 2.85 though!

In summary: the AAC without its worst team is a hair better than the ACC without its best team.  I can believe that.

I wouldn't normally consider the latter, but it is indeed less than a year away from happening Big East! Big East! Big East!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

clip

I must have been using data that was from earlier than Week 4. I still had my unsaved spreadsheet up from where I sorted the data so I plugged in the new "SP+" published this morning straight from the new source. Navy did not play this week, but the numbers LOVE Navy all of a sudden [+15.8 Y:Y], so I guess I may have been right that they looked oddly low. Memphis, SMU and Tulane also made big jumps last week with Houston being the only big decline - even Temple only dropped by 0.9 despite my awful projection of improvement. The new conference average ranking is 0.65, a move of +3.69 from last year's final!

For the record, the ACC is 4.55, or 2.64 without Clemson so about 2 points higher. Just by kicking out UConn, the American will jump to 2.85 though!

In summary: the AAC without its worst team is a hair better than the ACC without its best team.  I can believe that.

I wouldn't normally consider the latter, but it is indeed less than a year away from happening Big East! Big East! Big East!

wait what

UConn is kicked out of the American at year-end in order to rejoin the Big East for basketball and all other sports. They intend to be an independent following the UMass model of taking $2 million paydays from the SEC powers each year.

e: I was referring to my subtractions when I described 'latter'