Next UK General Election

[Walmart_shopper]

If it comes to that - and the phrasing of the various briefings has been odd so I haven't a clue

...and subsequent leaks have been even stranger.

They're literally going with May's deal with the backstop language crossed out. It is like a parody at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

[jaichind]

Johnson plans 10/14 election if he loses Brexit vote

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

Distribution would could count for a lot.  If the LAB and LIB vote are distributed evenly then the CONs are looking good even if there is a LIB-Green alliance.  but it could be the LAB vote are concentrated in the North and the LIB vote are concentrated in the South.  If so then Johnson is toast unless he gets Brexit Party tactical vote.

[Former President tack50]

Using Flavible Politics' seat extrapolator, that polling average would predict this parliament:

Con: 343
Lab: 178
Lib: 57
SNP: 48
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
Brexit: 1 (Thurrock)

Of course, I imagine that implies an even swing and the election very obviously won't be an even swing, but whatever.

To me, it seems the Tories have a narrow but consistent advantage in terms of actually getting a majority. Labour will certainly go down by quite a bit, but ironically they could end up in power in a "coalition of chaos"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Johnson plans 10/14 election if he loses Brexit vote

That is what is being briefed but is not what he actually said at his much-hyped speech today. It's all very strange: the tone of the briefings is 'what the PM meant to say'.

[cp]

Using Flavible Politics' seat extrapolator, that polling average would predict this parliament:

Con: 343
Lab: 178
Lib: 57
SNP: 48
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
Brexit: 1 (Thurrock)

Of course, I imagine that implies an even swing and the election very obviously won't be an even swing, but whatever.

To me, it seems the Tories have a narrow but consistent advantage in terms of actually getting a majority. Labour will certainly go down by quite a bit, but ironically they could end up in power in a "coalition of chaos"

Please, please, *please* do not put faith in seat aggregators when the polls are this close, nor when the election has yet to be called.

Also, as I mentioned in the UK General Discussion thread, calling an election is not possible as a unilateral act by Johnson.

[Walmart_shopper]

Using Flavible Politics' seat extrapolator, that polling average would predict this parliament:

Con: 343
Lab: 178
Lib: 57
SNP: 48
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
Brexit: 1 (Thurrock)

Of course, I imagine that implies an even swing and the election very obviously won't be an even swing, but whatever.

To me, it seems the Tories have a narrow but consistent advantage in terms of actually getting a majority. Labour will certainly go down by quite a bit, but ironically they could end up in power in a "coalition of chaos"

Please, please, *please* do not put faith in seat aggregators when the polls are this close, nor when the election has yet to be called.

Also, as I mentioned in the UK General Discussion thread, calling an election is not possible as a unilateral act by Johnson.

Corbyn has made it quite clear that he would absolutely support a new election, which would give Boris the 2/3 of parliament he needs. I think the enthusiasm of both about a new election is cleqr evidence that each has a piece of the overall picture thqt gives them a lot of confidence about a new election. The Brexit Party and even the vulnerability of Boris' own seat would give Labour a fairly strong advantage. But with the rise of the LibDems there is no such advantage in national polling, which obviously favors the Tories and gives them a good feeling.

My overall sense is that Labour can do a lot (during a campaign, with its platform, etc.) to siphon away LibDem support in especially Remain constituencies which would make the national polling numbers far less indicative of the actual state of the race. And ancestral Labour/Leave voters in the Midlands will probably be more likely to defect to the Brexit Party than to the Conservatives, which could soften Tory gains there. Those are not people who can stomach electing people like Jacob Rees-Mogg. Ever.

So I don't see it as anything other than a coinflip at this point, and surely the campaign teams know that either a Tory majority, Labour majority, or Remainee Alliance majority is entirely plausible at this point with none of those being significantly more likely than the other.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

No, I think he is working towards a new election because he cannot legally push through a no deal Brexit and there is no majority for any deal. His position is literally the same as May's, although he is more dogmatic about and so more committed to Brexit. A new election *might* give him a majority for a deal or if not then a no deal. And that might is at least better for him than having the Commons slam the door in his face repeatedly.

But the repeated idea that "Boris is very confident about getting a majority because look at polls" is a deficient idea that fundamentally misunderstands the dynamics of election campaigning in a FPTP system especially in a volatile political environment with two volatile and unpopular party leaders fighting over a massive policy divide (Brexit) that has been either largely untested or seems inconclusive in the broader public. Anyone who says that the Tories have a clear advantage is wrong.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

Theresa May called an election when Conservatives were 20 points up and 3rd parties had less support.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

Theresa May called an election when Conservatives were 20 points up and 3rd parties had less support.

If only that polling lead was the actual result

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

Theresa May called an election when Conservatives were 20 points up and 3rd parties had less support.

If only that polling lead was the actual result

Yeah who knows corbyn might pull off a upset

[President Johnson]

I hope a new election is called and Corbyn loses badly so that a new and more center-oriented leader can be elected. But probably the New Democrats are a better home for pro-EU social liberals.

[AndyHogan14]

I hope a new election is called and Corbyn loses badly so that a new and more center-oriented leader can be elected. But probably the New Democrats are a better home for pro-EU social liberals.

I would very much like Corbyn to go down as well, but Johnson and the Tories are far, far worse at this point in time. If Johnson is to lose, then Corbyn is likely to win and Johnson needs to lose.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168581684998082563

Example one  of why Boris has been setting the pieces in motion for a GE.

Theresa May called an election when Conservatives were 20 points up and 3rd parties had less support.

If only that polling lead was the actual result

Yeah who knows corbyn might pull off a upset

"Upset."

[YL]

I hope a new election is called and Corbyn loses badly so that a new and more center-oriented leader can be elected. But probably the New Democrats are a better home for pro-EU social liberals.

I would very much like Corbyn to go down as well, but Johnson and the Tories are far, far worse at this point in time. If Johnson is to lose, then Corbyn is likely to win and Johnson needs to lose.

Absolutely.  I'm no great Corbyn fan, but Johnson and his gang are far worse.  The Tories need to lose.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope a new election is called and Corbyn loses badly so that a new and more center-oriented leader can be elected. But probably the New Democrats are a better home for pro-EU social liberals.

I would very much like Corbyn to go down as well, but Johnson and the Tories are far, far worse at this point in time. If Johnson is to lose, then Corbyn is likely to win and Johnson needs to lose.

No Boris is at worst as bad as Trump and Corbyn is far worse than Trump . Corbyn Winning would be worse than even No Deal Brexit by far

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Actually, I think you'll find my daddy could beat up your daddy

[cp]

... moving on.

Reports today that Corbyn confirmed he won't seek a GE call until the threat of no-deal has passed. There's some wiggle room in that, but I suspect this means there won't be an election until November or December at the earliest.

[Walmart_shopper]

... moving on.

Reports today that Corbyn confirmed he won't seek a GE call until the threat of no-deal has passed. There's some wiggle room in that, but I suspect this means there won't be an election until November or December at the earliest.

I would table the VoC the day after Boris slinks back from Brussels to ask for the extension. The optics of Bojo getting emasculated by the opposition despite his many promises about leaving by October 31 might just be an election winner for Jez.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lib Dems MP's retuning for a second bat so far:

Argyll and Bute - Alan Reid (MP from 2001-2015)
Burnley - Gordon Birtwistle (MP 2010-2015)
Ceredigion - Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017)
City of London and Westminster - Chuka Ummuna (current ex-Labour MP for Streatham)
Richmond PArk - Sue Olney (winner of that by-election in like 2016 who lost in 2017)
St Ives - Andrew George (MP 1997-2015)
Wells - Tessa Munt (MP 2010-2015)

[Coldstream]

Lib Dems MP's retuning for a second bat so far:

Argyll and Bute - Alan Reid (MP from 2001-2015)
Burnley - Gordon Birtwistle (MP 2010-2015)
Ceredigion - Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017)
City of London and Westminster - Chuka Ummuna (current ex-Labour MP for Streatham)
Richmond PArk - Sue Olney (winner of that by-election in like 2016 who lost in 2017)
St Ives - Andrew George (MP 1997-2015)
Wells - Tessa Munt (MP 2010-2015)

George, Olney and Munt are probably favoured to get back in.

Reid has a narrow chance if the Lib Dem’s surge in Scotland, whilst the Tories crater post Davidson and Labour continue to underperform.

Birtwhistle though is unlikely to improve on 2017. His victory in 2010 was something of a fluke.

[Continential]

Why do leftwingers in the UK consider Swinson to be a Yellow Tory?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why do leftwingers in the UK consider Swinson to be a Yellow Tory?

She literally supported building a monument to Thatcher.

[Farmlands]

Why do leftwingers in the UK consider Swinson to be a Yellow Tory?

She literally supported building a monument to Thatcher.

I'm leftist myself, but it cannot be denied that Thatcher was a very consequential Prime Minister in the United Kingdom and not in a Mussolini type way. So I don't think a monument would be undeserved, as leaders like Bill Clinton have them too.