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  UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.  (Read 5285 times)
bronz4141
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« Reply #50 on: July 26, 2019, 02:10:53 pm »

Can Johnson win a general election?

If the Tories lose, who is the next Tory leader?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #51 on: July 26, 2019, 04:00:24 pm »

1) Yes, he can (which is certainly not saying he *will*)

2) Who knows? Would depend on how that had happened to a significant extent.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #52 on: July 26, 2019, 08:45:24 pm »



MP for the 19th Century strikes again!

"Use imperial measurements"... Jesus wept.
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Nathan
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« Reply #53 on: July 27, 2019, 01:15:44 am »

How about "SHOWDOWN! Bercow vs. JRM" for the thread title?
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urutzizu
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« Reply #54 on: July 27, 2019, 05:10:16 pm »

First Polls taken entirely after BoJos appointment:

Opinium:
CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)

Yougov:
CON: 31% (+6)
LAB: 21% (+2)
LDEM: 20% (-3)
BREX: 13% (-4)

Deltapoll:
CON: 30% (+10)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (+2)
BREX: 14% (-10)

Comres:
CON: 28% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 19% (+2)
BREX: 16% (-3)

My prediction: Boris goes half-heartedly to Europe and gets nothing or much too little. He goes for no-deal, parliament blocks it (either through no-confidence vote or legislation). Boris calls snap election and gets short extension from EU for it. Election becomes de facto second referendum on Brexit.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #55 on: July 27, 2019, 06:15:15 pm »

Apart from good old YouGov, slightly underwhelming for the new PM I would have thought.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #56 on: July 27, 2019, 08:20:07 pm »

Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.
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YL
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« Reply #57 on: July 28, 2019, 12:45:44 am »

Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.

Already being discussed on the by-election thread.  The Lib Dems have a prospective candidate, and it isn't Nick Clegg.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #58 on: July 28, 2019, 03:03:18 pm »

Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.

Already being discussed on the by-election thread.  The Lib Dems have a prospective candidate, and it isn't Nick Clegg.

That's great, considering Clegg is the eiptome of the worst that the Lib Dems have to offer
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YL
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« Reply #59 on: August 02, 2019, 03:20:52 am »
« Edited: August 02, 2019, 03:26:13 am by YL »

Composition of the Commons after Brecon & Radnorshire

Con 310 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lan 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
LD 13
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
TIG 5
"The Independents" 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
other Independents 11

Con + DUP 320
Lab + LD + SNP + Plaid + Green + TIG + "The Independents" 308
other Independents 11

This gives a nominal working majority for Con + DUP of 1, but note that one of those other Independents is Charlie Elphicke, who is suspended from the Tory whip but likely to vote with the Government.  They also include Frank Field, who is apparently making a statement later today, Ian Austin, who has been voting a lot with the Government recently, and Jared O'Mara, who has probably voted in the Commons for the last time.  So the Government is probably a little more secure than that majority of 1 suggests.


"The Independents" are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and John Woodcock.

The other Independents are

Ian Austin - ex-Labour
Nick Boles - ex-Tory
Charlie Elphicke - suspended Tory
Frank Field - ex-Labour
Sylvia Hermon - ex-UUP but elected as Independent
Kelvin Hopkins - suspended Labour
Ivan Lewis - ex-Labour
Stephen Lloyd - ex-Lib Dem
Jared O'Mara - ex-Labour
Chris Williamson - suspended Labour
Sarah Wollaston - ex-Tory via TIG
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YL
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« Reply #60 on: August 02, 2019, 06:04:40 am »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.
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The Saint
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« Reply #61 on: August 02, 2019, 07:34:29 am »



Doesn’t anyone know for sure what this is? Some speculated Frank Field (now not happening for sure) or Kate Hoey joining, but looking at the Brexit Party Twitter account, it seems as this was meant for constituency announcements. Is that true?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2019, 08:03:01 am »

Williamson is according to himself being referred to the National Constitutional Committee for potential expulsion
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MaxQue
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« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2019, 08:58:13 am »



Doesn’t anyone know for sure what this is? Some speculated Frank Field (now not happening for sure) or Kate Hoey joining, but looking at the Brexit Party Twitter account, it seems as this was meant for constituency announcements. Is that true?

Maybe announcement of the Westminster candidates they picked last month,
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #64 on: August 02, 2019, 01:56:32 pm »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.
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YL
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« Reply #65 on: August 02, 2019, 02:29:49 pm »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2019, 03:03:31 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2019, 03:43:02 pm by Oryxslayer »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

This gets to the question of what the brexit party really is. If he was looking for a longer lasting thing, he would want defectors (admitedly, less are available since to tories keep giving into the ERG) but if its supposed to remain a personality party with no chance at number 10 then he would not want defectors to steal his thunder. If the parties goal was to change the debate on Brexit then they have already succeeded: May is gone, Boris is an ally, and the Tories want to leave in October no matter what.

So we have to ask, what does farage want from this Breixt party project right now, as they start to slip in the polls. I can think of three end goals for running in the eventual westminister election, rather then endorsing/teaming up with Boris. They are:

1) Farage is an accelerationist and wants to ruin the Tory Brexit and give power to the remainers, to hope he can push Leavers further into his camp. The problem is of course, if accelerationism worked, the world would have a lot more communist governments.

2) Farage is playing Littlefinger politics, and just wants chaos because chaos makes him valuable. The more chaos in the system, the more people are going to look elsewhere. Farage doesn't care what happens to the big picture if this is true, all he cares about is keeping the next rung on the ladder always in reach.

3) Perhaps the most likely option: Farage just wants a position in whatever political reality is to come. With the UK leaving the EU, he loses his paycheck and his microphone. Aquiring westminister seats give him access to both. If this reason is true though, he is losing control of the project. The narrative is leaving the Brexit party behind as Boris now beats the No Deal drum. If this is the real reason, Farage has every reason to try and cut a deal with the tories for seats, access, and a podium if The Brexit party starts becoming irrelevant in the polls.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2019, 03:09:12 pm »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

Ann Widdecombe hasn't exactly helped their image.
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Fredo Cuomo
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« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2019, 04:03:10 pm »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

Ann Widdecombe hasn't exactly helped their image.
Can we have her? Ann’s a star in my view.
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cp
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« Reply #69 on: August 03, 2019, 05:39:58 am »

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

This gets to the question of what the brexit party really is. If he was looking for a longer lasting thing, he would want defectors (admitedly, less are available since to tories keep giving into the ERG) but if its supposed to remain a personality party with no chance at number 10 then he would not want defectors to steal his thunder. If the parties goal was to change the debate on Brexit then they have already succeeded: May is gone, Boris is an ally, and the Tories want to leave in October no matter what.

So we have to ask, what does farage want from this Breixt party project right now, as they start to slip in the polls. I can think of three end goals for running in the eventual westminister election, rather then endorsing/teaming up with Boris. They are:

1) Farage is an accelerationist and wants to ruin the Tory Brexit and give power to the remainers, to hope he can push Leavers further into his camp. The problem is of course, if accelerationism worked, the world would have a lot more communist governments.

2) Farage is playing Littlefinger politics, and just wants chaos because chaos makes him valuable. The more chaos in the system, the more people are going to look elsewhere. Farage doesn't care what happens to the big picture if this is true, all he cares about is keeping the next rung on the ladder always in reach.

3) Perhaps the most likely option: Farage just wants a position in whatever political reality is to come. With the UK leaving the EU, he loses his paycheck and his microphone. Aquiring westminister seats give him access to both. If this reason is true though, he is losing control of the project. The narrative is leaving the Brexit party behind as Boris now beats the No Deal drum. If this is the real reason, Farage has every reason to try and cut a deal with the tories for seats, access, and a podium if The Brexit party starts becoming irrelevant in the polls.

Farage gets literally both of those things from his daily LBC radio show. In fact, he gets better paid and has a wider and more regular audience than he would as a Tory backbencher or the leader of the 4th/5th/6th largest party in the Commons.

I think you're right about the first two points, though. Farage probably thinks quite highly of his political abilities given the events of the past few years. He has every reason to think he's got some insight that will deliver him more power if he just stirs up enough trouble.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #70 on: August 14, 2019, 04:18:55 pm »

Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) has defected from Change UK to the Lib Dems, giving them a total of 14 MPs.
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Green Line
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« Reply #71 on: August 14, 2019, 10:36:45 pm »

Can't believe Theresa isn't giving honours to Philip Hammond.  Very spiteful!
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thumb21
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« Reply #72 on: August 15, 2019, 07:40:49 am »

Jeremy Corbyn has announced his plan to stop a No Deal Brexit. He wants to be installed as a Caretaker Prime Minister who would immediately ask for an extension of Article 50, then call a general election.



The Greens, SNP and Plaid are open to the idea but prefer a second referendum to be held, rather than a general election. The Lib Dems and TIG are opposed. Lib Dem leader instead calling for Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke to take over as PM.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49352250


Lib Dem response:
Quote
But Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson said she would not support making Mr Corbyn prime minister.

She called him "divisive" and said he would not command MPs' support.

In speech on Thursday, she said her party would work with others to stop a no-deal exit but Mr Corbyn was not a leader "respected on both sides of the House".

Instead, she suggested Tory MP Ken Clarke or Labour's Harriet Harman could lead an emergency government to prevent a no-deal on the 31 October deadline.

Government response:
Quote
Downing Street said Mr Corbyn would "overrule the referendum and wreck the economy" if he became prime minister.

A No 10 spokesman said: "This government believes the people are the masters and votes should be respected.

"Jeremy Corbyn believes that the people are the servants and politicians can cancel public votes they don't like."

Other parties + Tory rebels response:
Quote
Green MP Caroline Lucas welcomed Mr Corbyn's call for a vote of no confidence but insisted a referendum must be held before any general election

Plaid Cymru's Westminster Leader Liz Saville Roberts said she welcomed any attempt to stop no-deal but said it was "disappointing" that he would not commit to calling a referendum before an election

The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford said his party would support the principle of a no-confidence vote, but "there is no mechanism for a caretaker government at the moment"

Also receiving the letter were Tory MPs Dominic Grieve, Sir Oliver Letwin and Dame Caroline Spelman, and Nick Boles, the independent MP who quit the Tory Party over Brexit.

Responding on Thursday, they said they were happy to support cross-party work to block no deal and meet Mr Corbyn and MPs from other parties in the coming weeks.

Change UK leader Anna Soubry, who was not sent the letter, said Mr Corbyn "doesn't even command respect and support from his own party never mind across the political divide".
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DaWN
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« Reply #73 on: August 15, 2019, 07:50:24 am »

Lib Dem leader instead calling for Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke to take over as PM.



Good god. The one person who's fault all this sh!t is. No thanks.

Anyway, 'install ME as Prime Minister and I'll sort everything out' is a predictably egotistical response, but in the end, the leader of the opposition claiming he'll make a better PM is hardly the most surprising news ever. Even if 'leader' and 'opposition' both need large qualifiers in this instance.

fwiw I'm beginning to think there'll be a general election by the end of the year regardless of what happens
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #74 on: August 15, 2019, 08:00:47 am »

TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.
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