UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[DaWN]

Lib Dem leader instead calling for Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke to take over as PM.

Good god. The one person who's fault all this sh!t is. No thanks.

Anyway, 'install ME as Prime Minister and I'll sort everything out' is a predictably egotistical response, but in the end, the leader of the opposition claiming he'll make a better PM is hardly the most surprising news ever. Even if 'leader' and 'opposition' both need large qualifiers in this instance.

fwiw I'm beginning to think there'll be a general election by the end of the year regardless of what happens

[DaWN]

Socialist Twitter seems to be up in arms about Jo Swinson not immediately dropping all demands and completely acquiescing to His Most High and Worshipful Highness Lord and Emperor Corbyn of Islington and his wonderful (non-European, of course) socialist paradise. Leaving aside everything else, I thought they didn't like it when Lib Dems acted spinelessly in the face of potential coalition partners?

[DaWN]

The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year, and it's the end of them as a political force. The short term losses incurred by screaming Twitter Socialists and the media are far from ideal but the lesser of two bad choices here.

In any case, given the Labour response to all this has been 'acquiesce to every demand we make or f!ck off,' I think there's a good chance the response will be 'ok, f!ck off' and none of this crap will happen anyway. Although these are very strange times and I've been wrong before.

And lastly, of course Corbyn will give up power if required. Even I'm prepared to give him that much.

[DaWN]

The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year

As polls confirm, they have gained a lot of that support from Labour.

And that isn't - whatever some may like to believe - because those people have been (re)converted to the virtues of neoliberal centrism, it is because many of them are very worried about Brexit (especially the prospect of crashing out without a deal) and came to view the once quite effective Labour/Corbyn "constructive ambiguity" on the topic as more like evasion and duplicity.

I'd caution with this approach. No, nobody is voting specifically for centrist neoliberalism (least of all me) but putting down the movement to the Lib Dems entirely to Brexit might not be entirely accurate. It was probably the catalyst for the recent large movement but I think a general fatigue with Corbyn was a large factor as well.

Corbyn putting Swinson on the spot like this was thus smart politics as well as objectively the right thing to do to maximise the chances of avoiding no deal. Always a good combination.

"Support ME and only ME and nobody other than ME" is sadly probably what passes for good politics these days, so I'll concede that point (with reservations discussed below)

And she handled it poorly, too many LibDems have let the Euro elections especially go to their heads.

Yeah, going to have to agree to disagree here. I do mean this in the nicest possible way, but what you think on this doesn't really matter that much - you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter, you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter in any circumstances and thus your opinion doesn't factor into that of Swinson or any other senior Lib Dem. Nobody who likes Corbyn is voting Lib Dem, and therefore anyone outraged that he's been denied number 10 by this was probably not in Swinson's electoral calculations to begin with. Sure, there'll be some voters who are annoyed at the course of action they've taken, but I think taking a short term hit from this (and of course, Lib Dem social media is pumping out the 'we tried guvnor, honest' stuff which is a bit disingenuous but does what it needs to do) is, as I said, the best of two very bad choices. Soon enough, all of this will be forgotten once Brexit produces the next shiny object for the media to fawn over, whereas if she decides to prop up Corbyn, all the moderate voters (and yes, they do exist. If Corbyn was a diehard remainer he would still be struggling, even if not as much, because his rhetoric if not his policies are not popular) would bolt and the party would be back to the Farron days if they were lucky. Corbyn and the media have put Swinson in a tought spot but I think she's taken the correct course, even if it doesn't seem like it now.

In any case, even if Swinson did fold, any Corbyn led government would need the SNP, and the SNP will do exactly what benefits the SNP and nothing else.  I'm not certain that would be Prime Minister Corbyn. Certainly wouldn't benefit the bloody country but that's of course my opinion and irrelevant to the wider analytical discussion.

[DaWN]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

Which is perfectly fine and fair enough, but it doesn't change my argument that you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter and therefore you might not be able to fairly judge the impact of these shenanigans on someone who would be a potential Lib Dem voter. Someone who likes Corbyn at this point is voting Labour - therefore, I don't see the Lib Dem rejection of Corbyn as a very large issue for them.

[DaWN]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here? I think it more likely most blame him to be frank , as this isn't really a situation where there's an obvious wrongdoer - as someone mentioned further up, both sides had red lines it would have been impossible to budge from and thus to supporters of that side, they seem reasonable. In any case, I do hope you can see the poor logic in "I stopped voting Labour because I don't like Corbyn but I'm furious that the party I went to wouldn't make him PM so I'm going back." That's not how things work.

And to all the indignant lefties, please try and get a sense of perspective. Just because YOU don't like what's happened doesn't mean people who vote a different way agree. And 'the Lib Dems are going to lose seats because they wouldn't make someone no non-Labour voters like PM" is such a stupid take it hurts my brain.

Oh, and for the love of God, PLEASE stop saying this is a genius masterstroke from Corbyn. It was the most open of open goals, and it says a lot about him that his not blasting the ball above the crossbar into a geostationary orbit is considered a genius move.

[DaWN]

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

Because they like him and represent their interests? I despise the man but its not hugely difficult to see why a socialist might like him. Not difficult to see why a socialist might dislike him as well of course, but that's beyond the point.

[DaWN]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-caretaker-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit-a9064616.html

Jeremy Corbyn is leaving open the option of supporting an alternative caretaker prime minister, as he vows to do “everything necessary to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit”.

In a speech in the midlands, the Labour leader will not rule out backing a different stopgap, after the Liberal Democrats and rebel Tories dismissed putting him in No 10 to avert a crash-out on 31 October.

Aides said he remained focused on seeking to persuade MPs to back him, if Boris Johnson can be toppled in a no-confidence vote – but described it only as the “simplest and most democratic” solution.

Then what the f!ck was the point of the tantrum when it was suggested last week? I honestly think he's just f!cking with us at this point.

Anyway, I told you all it wouldn't matter, and yet...

[DaWN]

And the same holds for any hypothetical "third party" figure.

Which is why this entire episode has probably been a complete waste of time from the very beginning.

[DaWN]

Lol. Literally none of the potential caretaker PMs are popular. British politics in a nutshell.

[DaWN]

Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain

[DaWN]

I did time my holiday well, but the effect on the exchange rate has not been too great sadly. I have been quite surprised however, how little most people here in the UK seem to care. One would really not expect that the country is in the midst of an constitutional crisis and on the brink of a economic one as well. I have noticed nothing of it here really, except from the newspapers and the odd Car Bumper sticker. I tried to discuss it at breakfast, but unlike the European tourists, the Brits seemed to be quite uninterested in the whole saga. Quite surreal actually.

It's mainly because of how bloody sick of it we all are. And when I say all, I mean ALL

[DaWN]

Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?

Well, we've reached the point where it's being seriously suggested the Prime Minister pretend to be sick like he's a schoolboy avoiding a test. Can't see how this all gets any more ridiculous.

[DaWN]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

[DaWN]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

Wow, a 2015 meme. That's my entire argument defeated, better just become a Corbynite now.

[DaWN]

The Tories are not going to lose any of the Surrey strongholds. The majorities are too large and the voting patterns too baked in, not to mention the Lib Dems (who will be the benefactors of a hypothetical collapse, Labour would be even less likely to win them) have far better targets, both Tory and Labour, that they're not going to bother wasting time in unwinnable seats. Probably. Incompetence can't be ruled out, this is Britain after all

[DaWN]

Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both the "big two" down, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.

FPTP would almost certainly limit Alliance gains but if they do get a seat or two it could potentially throw a spanner in the works if the Tories end up with a result similar to 2017

[DaWN]

Remember that episode of The Thick of It where Hugh's idea to get through a press conference he hasn't got anything to say at is to highlight how he hasn't got anything to say?

[DaWN]

No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.

[DaWN]

No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.

Really? This is a marginal leave area in suburban Greater London which saw a huge Remain related swing to Labour last election. Seems like the exact kind of place the LDs are going to be targeting in a few months.

Bracknell is definitely not suburban Greater London. Also, while Labour did improve, it was mainly due the general third party collapse of 2017, Lee's majority barely fell at all. A 30% majority is going to be hard to overturn, nevermind a 51% majority which is what the Tories had over the LDs in 2017. Plus of course, as I said yesterday about the Surrey strongholds, the LDs have far better targets, not least defected MPs they actually have a chance of saving.

Of course, I'd like to be wrong, but I doubt it.

[DaWN]

Consolidation around CON and LAB

A friendly reminder things can always get worse

[DaWN]

I'm currently at the Remain rally in Westminster (yeah, yeah, I know, I'm with a family member who wanted to go, wasn't my choice)

So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott (which is a lol in itself), who's main theme of her speech seems to be 'Aren't I great'

We're really not making this easy for ourselves

[DaWN]

So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard

A week of platitudes does not erase three years of inaction

[DaWN]

So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard

A week of platitudes does not erase three years of inaction

What would have been adequate action for a party that was committed in principle to respecting the referendum result? Or is having been committed in principle to respecting the referendum result until it became clear that the two realistic long-term options were crash-out or revocation enough in itself to still make a party "Brexit-supporting" now that that's become clear?

I expected the opposition to oppose. It did not. Thus, that it has now decided to do so as it has become politically expedient does not erase over three years of Little Englander Labour.

Now if the Labour party does the right thing (for the wrong reasons of course) I'm not going to say no, but their inaction and capitulation isn't going to be forgotten.

[DaWN]

Anyway, most of these speakers have been shockingly uninspiring. Thornberry has been the best speaker but her actual track record isn't great. Sadiq Khan wasn't bad either but he was only up for about thirty seconds before buggering off. Don't blame him.