Beshear or Hood, who’s more likely to win in November?

[Sir Mohamed]

Beshear b/c Bevin is underwater big league. But I expect neither of these dudes to win, polarization is too much these days to overcome such partisan leanings. Dems will be lucky to keep the LA governorship this year.

[beesley]

Obviously Beshear.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is going to be a fun flashback thread come November when those shoddy Beshear +double digits polls in the spring and summer make the McGrath +15 poll look good by being off by less than 20.

[Xing]

Hood, though that's not saying much.

[Mr. Smith]

While I'd say Hood at face-value, there is the Electoral College to consider in MS that will almost certainly vote for Reeves.

So Beshear it is, since he only needs a plurality.

Electoral college is only if Hood doesn't get a majority.

He won't. The votes aren't there for Hood to hit 50%+

It’s much easier to envision a map for a Democrat to win Mississippi than in kentucky

True.

But it's much easier to envision a map where a Democrat can hit 44% in both states than hit 50% in Mississippi.

Even Espy was barely able to keep it to single digits, and that was D+9 year.

[Suburbia]

Both will win.

In November, there will be five Democratic Southern Governors:

Northam (VA), Cooper (NC), Edwards (LA), Hood (MS) and Beshear (KY)

It would have been good if Abrams and Maddox was included (GA and AL)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear, due to McConnell's obstruction, voters, even in KY will punish GOP. But Hood can win, too.

[Del Tachi]

Hood, as Mississippi has an obviously higher floor for Democrats and I can't see him doing any worse than Mike Espy who only lost by 7 pts (!!!)

Mississippi's weird electoral college thing is a constitutional anomaly that has never actually been put to a real-life test.  If Hood wins >50% and the MS Supreme Court tries to deny him the governorship, a Federal court probably overrules.  Of course, that's only if the MS Supreme Court tries to enforce this weird interpretation of the "Mississippi electoral college" that seems to be prevailing on the Forum in the first place (I bet they won't, because none of those guys like Tate Reeves very much).

[OneJ]

Hood, as Mississippi has an obviously higher floor for Democrats and I can't see him doing any worse than Mike Espy who only lost by 7 pts (!!!)

Mississippi's weird electoral college thing is a constitutional anomaly that has never actually been put to a real-life test.  If Hood wins >50% and the MS Supreme Court tries to deny him the governorship, a Federal court probably overrules.  Of course, that's only if the MS Supreme Court tries to enforce this weird interpretation of the "Mississippi electoral college" that seems to be prevailing on the Forum in the first place (I bet they won't, because none of those guys like Tate Reeves very much).

Pretty much all of this.

[Epaminondas]

Mississippi's weird electoral college thing is a constitutional anomaly that has never actually been put to a real-life test. If Hood wins >50% and the MS Supreme Court tries to deny him the governorship, a Federal court probably overrules.

Great to hear! "Probably" Merrick Garland will also get back his seat then?

Believing your party of grifters will still respect political norms in the age of Trump is always worth a chuckle.

[Mr. Smith]

Hood, as Mississippi has an obviously higher floor for Democrats and I can't see him doing any worse than Mike Espy who only lost by 7 pts (!!!)

Mississippi's weird electoral college thing is a constitutional anomaly that has never actually been put to a real-life test.  If Hood wins >50% and the MS Supreme Court tries to deny him the governorship, a Federal court probably overrules.  Of course, that's only if the MS Supreme Court tries to enforce this weird interpretation of the "Mississippi electoral college" that seems to be prevailing on the Forum in the first place (I bet they won't, because none of those guys like Tate Reeves very much).

Is the 1999 election a joke to you?

Or are you really telling me that the Supreme Court will just decide to be nice and bipartisan 'cuz Hood got 49.2 to Reeves 49.1?

[Del Tachi]

Hood, as Mississippi has an obviously higher floor for Democrats and I can't see him doing any worse than Mike Espy who only lost by 7 pts (!!!)

Mississippi's weird electoral college thing is a constitutional anomaly that has never actually been put to a real-life test.  If Hood wins >50% and the MS Supreme Court tries to deny him the governorship, a Federal court probably overrules.  Of course, that's only if the MS Supreme Court tries to enforce this weird interpretation of the "Mississippi electoral college" that seems to be prevailing on the Forum in the first place (I bet they won't, because none of those guys like Tate Reeves very much).

Is the 1999 election a joke to you?

Or are you really telling me that the Supreme Court will just decide to be nice and bipartisan 'cuz Hood got 49.2 to Reeves 49.1?

1999 probably isn't the analogue you're looking for because, for all that happened, the intuitive outcome was achieved:  the popular vote winner (Musgrove) was installed as governor.  Assuming that this 1999 precedent is proof that a popular vote loser (Reeves) who wins more state house districts could be legitimately and constitutionally installed as governor in 2019 is...quite the leap.   

And just because Atlas doesn't understand this, in 1999 the "electoral college" was only in effect because no candidate reached a popular vote majority:  under this precedent, if Hood gets >50% then he's governor.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the real reason why the MS electoral college won't end up mattering is because Hood is a white conservative Dem. The moment the GOP legislature uses the district rule once it will get thrown out not too long later in court. So they would probably want to save that one-time use for a noncooperative AA candidate, a circumstance that may occur in the near future thanks to white out-migration from MS.

But this is all assuming Hood gets to this point, which right now seems like a heavy lift.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it would be disingenuous to say Hood at this point, even if Kentucky polls are 15+ points off Beshear is still looking better than Hood.

[Flyersfan232]

Hood, because he at least has a chance.

Yeah, Hood has a solid floor of about 42% thanks to Mississippi’s black vote. Beshear has no such thing and he needs like 30% of Trump supporters. That is...not going to happen

I can’t believe people are taking both Kentucky polls (which always overestimate Democrats) and SurveyMonkey polls seriously. Does anyone learn their lesson?

Colin Peterson would like a word

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think it would be disingenuous to say Hood at this point, even if Kentucky polls are 15+ points off Beshear is still looking better than Hood.

It’s been two months since we’ve seen a Mississippi poll and almost a year since we saw a reliable poll

[IceSpear]

I think it would be disingenuous to say Hood at this point, even if Kentucky polls are 15+ points off Beshear is still looking better than Hood.

It’s been two months since we’ve seen a Mississippi poll and almost a year since we saw a reliable poll

Yeah, these are the only non internal polls we have for these races:

Gravis (June): Bevin +4
Mason-Dixon (December): Beshear +8

SurveyMonkey (July): Reeves +9
Mason-Dixon (February): Hood +2

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it would be disingenuous to say Hood at this point, even if Kentucky polls are 15+ points off Beshear is still looking better than Hood.

It’s been two months since we’ve seen a Mississippi poll and almost a year since we saw a reliable poll

True, so let's go based off the other fundamentals of the race. Bevin's approval is -25 to -30, and Bryant's is +25. Both races have high Democratic floors (Kentucky due to Bevin's awful approval will guarantee at least 40% goes to Beshear) but there are less persuadable voters in Mississippi (not that there's this huge amount in KY, either, just to be clear). In normal circumstances, Mississippi would be a better and more winnable target for Dems than Kentucky, but these are not normal circumstances.

[junior chįmp]

Both have no chance. If someone held a gun to by head, I'd actually say Hood but due to Mississippi's racist system of having the House choosing the Governor if under 50% then he stands no chance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, Beshear’s gonna win and Hood isn’t, so...

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly, the vocal minority going on trend overdoses is kinda why we need people like Politician (despite how much he attacks other people including me) to balance things out. When you can't even say something that is pretty obvious but conflicts with a narrative built up after 2016 without immediate confrontation then there's an issue. And I say this as someone who was pretty off about the gap between these two races.